Today (September 20th), four highly anticipated iPhone 16 series models were officially released. According to the poster news, rainstorm fell in Beijing, but there was still a long queue at the gate of Apple Sanlitun retail store. Consumers who bought the first batch of iPhone 16 series and made an appointment to pick up goods at the earliest time waited in front of the store to become the first batch of iPhone 16 series users. According to The Paper, when the reporter arrived at the Apple retail store on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai, the first batch of users who had made appointments to pick up their goods had already lined up indoors. At the Apple Global Harbor store, a large number of pre booked users are also waiting at the store entrance to collect their new phones. Multiple consumers have expressed that the update efforts for Apple's new phones this year are not significant, and even AI functions cannot be used immediately. Originally, their expectations were not as high, but due to usage habits, they still choose Apple.
Before 9 o'clock in the morning, a reporter from the Daily Economic News arrived at the Apple direct operated store in Yitian Holiday Plaza, Shenzhen. With the increase in foot traffic, staff were placing more black fences for queuing, and the store was also bustling with activity. In addition to the "fruit fans" who came to pick up the new machine, there were also some consumers who came to experience the new machine.
Consumers picking up and experiencing the new Apple phone at the Apple store in Shenzhen Yitian Holiday Plaza, photographed by journalist Wang Jing
According to the staff at the Apple store, consumers who have made an appointment in advance to purchase a new phone can come into the store to collect it. There is no stock of iPhone 16 Pro/Pro Max in the store, but iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus can be purchased directly.
The iPhone 16 Pro Max is priced at around 300-400 yuan for recycling. "The reporter noticed several" scalpers "who were trading at the scene, carrying more than ten Apple shopping bags. When they saw users who received new phones from Apple stores, they would proactively inquire about the recycling of new phones. It is reported that the vast majority of "scalpers" are mainly competing for the iPhone 16 Pro Max version, especially the 256GB memory version.
As for iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus, scalpers do not accept them, and most iPhone 16 Pro models are either recycled at their original price or sold at an additional 30-50 yuan. In fact, many e-commerce platforms have already launched a subsidy war, especially Pinduoduo. The initial price of iPhone 16 on the official website starts at 5999 yuan, and Pinduoduo has dropped by 600 yuan; The official website launch price of iPhone 16 Plus (512GB) is 9999 yuan, and after Pinduoduo subsidizes the price, it saves 1000 yuan, which also makes the two models face the situation of "breaking through" (referring to the secondary market price falling below the launch price) before they are officially released.
Webpage screenshot
Webpage screenshot
IPhone 16 Pro Max
The highest premium is around a thousand yuan
On the evening of September 13th at 8 pm, Apple's iPhone 16 series models officially started pre-sales, and many "Apple fans" rushed to the official Apple website for the first time. At the same time as the first batch of new phones "flash", "Apple's official website crashed" also briefly went viral on Weibo.
The Daily Economic News reporter noticed that the current delivery date for ordering iPhone 16/16 Plus from Apple's official website is September 23rd; The iPhone 16 Pro will be released on October 11th; The delivery date for Pro Max is the longest, from October 11th to October 18th. It is worth noting that the delivery time for last year's best-selling iPhone 15 Pro Max has been extended to November 14th to November 21st, which means consumers need to wait for about two months after placing an order. This may mean that some users have reduced demand for the latest iPhone Pro model.
The reporter randomly asked several "scalpers" on site as consumers who purchased new phones, and learned that according to the color and memory of specific models, the iPhone 16 Pro Max is generally sold at a markup of 300-400 yuan for recycling, and at a premium of 800-1000 yuan. That is to say, "scalpers" can make a net profit of several hundred yuan by selling a mobile phone.
On site "scalpers" receiving goods, photographed by journalist Wang Jing
An online seller said, 'The iPhone 16 Pro has been added less this year, but the Pro Max is still increasing in price, but it may drop quickly. It's estimated that adding a few hundred yuan this afternoon will sell it.'.
Unlike last year when consumers generally pursued large memory, which led to a significant premium, large memory is not very popular this year. After asking multiple "scalpers", the reporter learned that the iPhone 16 Pro Max 256GB is relatively more popular. In addition, when the reporter first arrived at the Apple store, "scalpers" could sell the model at a premium of nearly a thousand yuan, but an hour later, the premium had fallen back to 600-700 yuan. The white version of Pro Max is more popular, but there are too many gold products. You just need to add 600 yuan, "said a" scalper ".
On the early morning of September 10th, Apple officially released the new iPhone 16 series, which has been upgraded in terms of appearance, imaging, chip, and other aspects. Specifically, the iPhone 16/16 Plus models use the A18 chip based on the second-generation 3nm process; The Pro/Pro Max models are equipped with upgraded A18 Pro chips. All four models are equipped with new camera control buttons, which can be pressed to bring up the camera application, and clicked to act as a shutter when taking photos; Long press to record video; Sliding left and right can also achieve zooming and other functions. In addition, this button can also serve as an "AI entrance". For example, when a user holding an iPhone 16 sees a restaurant, they can take a picture of the restaurant by pressing the "camera control" button, and then Apple Intelligence can automatically call up the restaurant's operating hours, reviews, reservations, and other options.
At this year's press conference, AI related terms such as Apple Intelligence and Machine Learning were mentioned multiple times, demonstrating Apple's emphasis on the AI field. In addition, facing a severe economic environment and competitive pressure from Chinese manufacturers, Apple urgently needs a catalyst to reignite demand in the Chinese market. At present, Apple Intelligence is its trump card, however, the timing of its launch in China is still uncertain, which has led to lower than expected sales of the iPhone 16 Pro series.
Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingchi recently stated on social media that the estimated pre order sales of iPhone 16 series in the first weekend are about 37 million units, a year-on-year decrease of about 12.7% compared to the first weekend sales of iPhone 15 series last year. He further stated that the shipment time of the iPhone 16 Pro series is significantly lower than that of the 15 Pro series. In addition to an increase in stock before pre order, the key reason for the year-on-year decrease in sales in the first weekend is that demand is lower than expected.
However, Guo Mingchi believes that although the pre order sales of the Pro series declined year-on-year in the first weekend, the production plan of the supply chain will not change much in the short term. Apple still has the opportunity to improve sales volume after the launch of Apple Intelligence and subsequent peak season promotions ("Double 11"). But if the launch of Apple Intelligence in the fourth quarter of 2024 and peak season promotions have limited impact on iPhone 16 series shipments, it is believed that Apple will adopt a more aggressive product strategy in 2025 to boost demand.
War Upgrades: Huawei's Three Fold Products
Released on the same day as iPhone 16
It is worth mentioning that Huawei's first three fold mobile phone Mate XT Extraordinary Master not only had the same release time as the iPhone 16 series, but also had the same product release date - the three fold product officially went on sale at 10:08 am on September 20th. After the initial rush to purchase, all models of Mate XT Extraordinary Master were instantly out of stock, and the official website channel is currently out of stock.
Huawei's first three fold mobile phone, Mate XT, extraordinary master, photographed by journalist Wang Jing (source image)
Although the two product categories are completely different, the competition is full of gunpowder. As of now, Huawei Mall shows that the number of pre orders for this product has exceeded 6 million. However, compared to the high premium of 60000 to 100000 yuan before its release, the price of this product has fallen on the Xianyu e-commerce platform.
On September 10th, at Huawei's new product launch event, Huawei's Executive Director and Chairman of Terminal BG, Yu Chengdong, launched the world's first triple fold screen phone. In the triple fold state, it can reach a 10.2-inch screen, and when unfolded, it can be as thin as 3.6 millimeters. He said, "We have always had a dream of putting a tablet in our pocket, and today we have achieved it. But in terms of technology, we have been working hard for five years. For the first time, the hinge system achieved internal and external bending, external bending resistance to tension, and internal bending resistance to compression, solving the problem of mass production
Counterpoint Research recently released a tracking report on the shipment volume of foldable smartphones, stating that the global shipment volume of foldable smartphones increased by 48% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024. China continues to lead the growth of the foldable smartphone market, accounting for more than half of the total shipment volume. The foldable screen market, which was once almost entirely dominated by Samsung, has now become a fiercely competitive battlefield among mobile phone brand manufacturers. The agency also stated that despite fierce market competition, Huawei will maintain its position as the top player in the Chinese foldable screen smartphone market share in 2023, accounting for 39%.
From the PK between the two major brands, it can be seen that the high price of nearly 20000 yuan for the Huawei Mate XT Extraordinary Master was destined to only be "tasted" by a small number of users in the early stages of release. However, Huawei, with its bold innovation, has already won the market in terms of popularity, while Apple's new hardware product releases are more about evolution rather than revolution.
In fact, over the past quarter, iPhone sales in the Chinese market have decreased by 6.5%, and in response to competition from local rivals such as Huawei, Apple has offered even greater discounts - up to 2300 yuan on some models in May this year. Nowadays, AI is highly anticipated, but to what extent it can boost Apple's sales still needs further observation.
IDC Research Director Nabila Popal believes that although there are many highlights of Apple's launch of smartphones containing Apple Intelligence this year, it is difficult for new products to bring much growth due to the lack of complete language support for its Apple Intelligence. Its impact is more about preventing the decline of Apple. Meanwhile, Apple also faces competition, especially from the Chinese market, such as Huawei.
Another IDC analyst, Ryan Reith, also holds the same view. Consumers will pay attention to Apple Intelligence, but today with GPT and various other solutions, consumers can use AI on their current (other) devices, so it is difficult for Apple Intelligence to directly drive new consumer purchases. At the same time, he also pointed out that the global macro economy is not very good, even if some expensive devices (whether AI phones or AIPCs) are sold through supplier efforts to promote, the development of the AI smartphone market is still very challenging without promotions and significant discounts.
However, there are also organizations that hold an optimistic attitude. Jibang Consulting predicts that the market's expectations for Apple Intelligence have increased, and with a lower base period in 2023, it is estimated that the total output of the four new iPhone 16 series will reach 86.7 million units in the second half of 2024, with an annual growth rate of nearly 8%. It is not ruled out that Apple may have the opportunity to surpass Samsung by the end of the year and become the top smartphone manufacturer in terms of market share for the first time.
