On September 20th, four highly anticipated iPhone 16 series models were officially released.
According to The Paper, when the reporter arrived at the Apple retail store on Nanjing East Road in Shanghai, the first batch of users who had made appointments to pick up their goods had already lined up indoors. At the Apple Global Harbor store, a large number of pre booked users are also waiting at the store entrance to collect their new phones. Multiple consumers have expressed that the update efforts for Apple's new phones this year are not significant, and even AI functions cannot be used immediately. Originally, their expectations were not as high, but due to usage habits, they still choose Apple.
Some models have been 'broken'
Yellow cattle do not accept goods
According to the Daily Economic News, on the day of its official release, Apple store staff stated that consumers who make advance reservations to purchase the phone can come into the store to collect the new phone. There is no stock of iPhone 16 Pro/Pro Max in the store, but iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus can be purchased directly.
The iPhone 16 Pro Max is priced at around 300-400 yuan for recycling. "The reporter noticed several" scalpers "who were trading at the scene, carrying more than ten Apple shopping bags. When they saw users who received new phones from Apple stores, they would proactively inquire about the recycling of new phones. It is reported that the vast majority of "scalpers" are mainly competing for the iPhone 16 Pro Max version, especially the 256GB memory version.
As for iPhone 16 and iPhone 16 Plus, scalpers do not accept them, and most iPhone 16 Pro models are either recycled at their original price or sold at an additional 30-50 yuan. In fact, many e-commerce platforms have already launched a subsidy war, especially Pinduoduo. The initial price of iPhone 16 on the official website starts at 5999 yuan, and Pinduoduo has dropped by 600 yuan; The official website launch price of iPhone 16 Plus (512GB) is 9999 yuan, and after Pinduoduo subsidizes the price, it saves 1000 yuan, which also makes the two models face the situation of "breaking through" (referring to the secondary market price falling below the launch price) before they are officially released.
According to Securities Times, when reporters visited the Apple Yitian Holiday Plaza store, they saw that as in previous years, there were still many users who had reserved new phones waiting in long queues to collect them, but the flow of people was slightly lower than in previous years. At the same time, around the store, as in previous years, there were numerous on-site "scalpers" recycling the iPhone 16 series.
We only accept the iPhone 16 Pro Max, with a markup of 200 yuan. We won't accept it this afternoon. We are also betting on the market now. The Huawei triple folding screen is priced at around 20000 yuan, and we can't get it even with a markup of 20000 to 30000 yuan. The total price will be sold for 50000 to 60000 yuan. "At around 9:00 am on September 20th, a" scalper "who was collecting the iPhone 16 series at the entrance of the store told reporters.
There are also a small number of "scalpers" who claim to accept the iPhone 16 Pro version, but the price increase is very small, only 50-100 yuan per unit.
Even the taxi fare is not enough, "a person who has just received a new Apple phone and is preparing to resell it told reporters.
By comparison, in previous years, on the day of the launch of new iPhone products, consumers would generally need to pay an additional 800 to several thousand yuan to purchase Pro and above versions from the market. Last year, the iPhone 15 Pro Max had a maximum price increase of over 2000 yuan.
IPhone 16 pre order sales lower than iPhone 15 in first weekend
On September 13th at 20:00, the Apple iPhone 16 series officially started pre-sales.
Recently, analyst Guo Mingchi from Tianfeng International stated that the estimated pre order sales of iPhone 16 series in the first weekend are about 37 million units, a year-on-year decrease of about 12.7% compared to the first weekend sales of iPhone 15 series last year. The key reason is that the iPhone 16 Pro series was lower than expected. Guo Mingchi pointed out that the shipment time of iPhone 16 Pro series is significantly lower than that of 15 Pro series. In addition to the increase in stock before pre order, the key factor is that the demand is lower than expected, as seen from the year-on-year decrease in sales in the first weekend.
In addition, the biggest selling point of the iPhone 16 series, Apple Intelligence, was not launched simultaneously with the iPhone 16 series, which is also a reason for affecting sales. According to Apple, the Chinese, French, Japanese, and Spanish versions of Apple Intelligence will be released as early as next year.
Can the trend of replacing machines be initiated?
Previously, the market had high expectations for the AI capabilities of the iPhone 16 series, believing that it would usher in a wave of device upgrades. But after the press conference, Apple's AI capabilities did not seem to bring any greater surprises.
Renowned technology journalist Mark Gurman bluntly stated before the press conference that the long-awaited "super cycle" triggered by the iPhone 16 will not come. He pointed out that the appearance of the new iPhone this autumn is almost identical to the previous generation, which also leads to a significant decrease in its appeal to consumers. The wave of phone replacement is more likely to be driven by the release of the iPhone 17 next year, when AI features will present a relatively more complete version, and the new models may also have a completely new appearance.
However, the greater significance of Apple's AI may be to drive market attention to the entire AI smartphone market.
Ping An Securities Research News pointed out that Android mobile phone manufacturers will follow Apple's steps to launch new AI mobile phones, which is expected to speed up the pace of mobile phone changes.
According to IDC data, global AI smartphone shipments are expected to increase from 234 million units in 2024 to 827 million units in 2027, with a CAGR of 100.7% from 2023 to 2027. AI smartphones are expected to become a new turning point for smartphone upgrades after 5G.
BOE recently discussed in an institutional survey the driving role of AI in the growth of terminal replacement demand. It indicates that the implementation of the replacement cycle in the terminal field will also resonate with AI innovation driven, becoming the key to the explosion of AI. In the future, AI smartphones will penetrate from flagship products to mid to high end products, and are expected to experience explosive growth by 2025.
Source: Daily Economic News, Securities Times, 21st Century Business Herald, China Securities Journal, The Paper, etc