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Will two more car companies join NIO's "battery swapping alliance" and battery swapping become a new trend?

楚一帆
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After Changan and Geely, two domestic car companies and NIO have reached a cooperation on battery swapping technology.
On January 11th, Jianghuai Automobile Group, Chery Automobile, and NIO signed a strategic cooperation framework agreement for battery swapping in Hefei, expanding NIO's battery swapping "circle of friends" to four.
According to the cooperation agreement, Chery Automobile and Jianghuai Automobile Group will cooperate with NIO in areas such as battery replacement standards, battery replacement technology, and battery replacement service network construction. In addition, Jianghuai Automobile also proposed that the new energy vehicle models planned in the future will cooperate deeply with NIO to launch "rechargeable, interchangeable, and upgraded" models, comprehensively improving the user's charging experience.
In addition to signing a cooperation framework agreement with two car companies on battery swapping, NIO also signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Anhui Energy Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Anhui Energy Group") and Anhui Transportation Holding Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Anhui Traffic Control Group") on the same day to jointly promote the construction of an open and shared storage, charging and swapping system. At the event site, Zhongan Energy (Anhui) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Zhongan Energy") was officially established.
It is reported that Wanneng Group, Anhui Provincial Traffic Control Group, and NIO have reached a cooperation agreement to support Zhong'an Energy in orderly promoting the construction of 1000 integrated battery swapping stations, jointly promoting the layout of open and shared new energy vehicle battery swapping networks, and further promoting the openness and interoperability of battery swapping networks. In addition, the three parties will also carry out comprehensive and multi-level deep strategic cooperation in battery standards, charging and swapping technology, battery asset management and operation, new power system cooperation, and supply chain cooperation related to the production and manufacturing of storage, charging and swapping equipment in the storage, charging and swapping industry.
NIO is currently the largest operator of electric vehicle swapping stations in China. As of December 31, 2023, NIO has deployed a total of 2316 swapping stations. However, it should be pointed out that the current service target of NIO battery swapping stations is limited to its own brand users, and the relatively small ownership of NIO restricts the profitability of battery swapping stations.
NIO has previously stated that its third-generation battery swapping stations can achieve breakeven with an average of 60 battery swapping per day. Currently, about 20% of NIO's battery swapping stations have reached this standard. With Changan, Geely, Chery and other car companies joining the NIO battery swapping network and the addition of the operating vehicle market, the NIO energy replenishment system is expected to become a public facility facing society, and the business scale will be further improved. At the end of last year, Li Bin, Chairman and CEO of NIO, stated in an interview with First Financial reporters that NIO had signed an agreement with a company specializing in investment in battery swapping assets to build battery swapping stations and join NIO's battery swapping network.
According to the plan, the NIO battery swapping system will be divided into dedicated networks and shared networks. The dedicated network will be provided for NIO brand use, while the shared network can be used by NIO, Alps, and other brands. In addition, NIO will launch a new 800V flash charging quick change battery pack, which will be supplied to Alps projects as well as partners such as Geely and Changan
At the third quarter financial report conference call last year, Li Bin stated that car companies cooperating with NIO to replace batteries would develop vehicle models based on NIO's mass market brand battery packs, and would need to modify the chassis. However, according to NIO's standards, the cost of changing batteries is not high, and the minimum cost for chassis modification is only 10-20 million yuan. "Selling an additional 1000 cars will bring back the cost.".
Although the current 800V electrical system and high-voltage fast charging can significantly reduce user energy replenishment anxiety, in addition to completing energy replenishment in a short period of time, battery swapping can also be linked with the power grid to participate in grid peak shaving, virtual power plants, and other functions. At the National Conference on Industry and Information Technology in 2023, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to support the development of new energy vehicle battery swapping models in 2024 and focus on piloting comprehensive electrification pilot zones for public sector vehicles.
CITIC Securities believes that based on the ownership of new energy vehicles, the battery swapping industry will experience explosive development in the future. It is expected that the number of battery swapping stations will reach 27489 in 2026, corresponding to a CAGR of 93% from 2022 to 2026; The market size of battery swapping equipment is expected to reach 30.5 billion yuan in 2026.
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