The latest PMI data shows that private sector activity in the eurozone is accelerating its contraction, and the economy is likely to fall into recession.
On Tuesday (October 24th) in the European session, data released jointly by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) showed that the initial value of the Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in October reached 43.0, lower than September's 43.4, which was the lowest in nearly three months. The market had originally expected a rebound to 43.7; The initial value of the manufacturing output index remains unchanged at 43.1, but it is still below the 50 boom and bust line.
PMI is a "barometer" that measures the development status of the industry and reflects future economic trends through monthly surveys and summaries of procurement managers. The index usually takes 50 as the critical point, and above 50, it indicates that a certain field is in an expanding state; If it is below 50, it indicates that the field is in a shrinking state.
The initial value of the Service Business Activity Index (PMI) reached a 32 month low of 47.8, and the market had originally expected it to remain unchanged at 48.7; This resulted in the initial value of the Comprehensive PMI Output Index (PMI) in October dropping from 47.2 to 46.5, the lowest level in 35 months, and the market had originally expected a slight improvement to 47.4.
Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist of Hamburg Commercial Bank, wrote in a report that the situation in the eurozone is getting worse, and the manufacturing industry has been in a downturn for 16 consecutive months, with almost all sub indices continuing to decline. Manufacturing companies are not only continuing to lay off employees, but also accelerating their layoff plans.
De la Rubia pointed out that the decline in comprehensive PMI is mainly driven by service industry activity, with the decline in service industry activity being greater than last month. Overall, this heralds another sluggish quarter, and we wouldn't be surprised if the eurozone experienced a slight recession in the second half of this year, with two consecutive quarters of negative growth
At present, the eurozone economy is facing multiple unfavorable factors, including high interest rates from the European Central Bank, slowing global economic activity, and energy prices rebounding due to the Middle East conflict. At the beginning of the month, European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that decision-making will depend on the inflation outlook, potential inflation dynamics, and the strength of monetary policy transmission, and ensure that interest rates are strictly set at a certain level if necessary.
Within the day, the initial comprehensive PMI values for Germany and France released by S&P Global recorded 45.8 and 45.3 respectively, both of which are a significant distance from the 50 boom and bust line. De la Rubia stated that Germany had a disadvantageous start to the last quarter, with manufacturing output continuing to decline significantly, and service industry activity, which had grown last month, showing another slowdown. This may confirm the widely held view that Germany will experience a full year economic contraction.
In France, manufacturing activity is shrinking at a faster pace and there are "no signs of relief". Norman Liebke, an economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, wrote, "Due to the continuous rise in fuel prices (within France) and reports of continued wage pressures, the rate of increase in input prices has continued to rise for the second consecutive month