首页 News 正文

Still falling by 200 basis points? Bank of America: The 10-year US Treasury yield may drop as low as 2.25% when interest rates are lowered next year

胡胡胡美丽_ss
266 0 0

If we look back at history, how much will the 10-year US Treasury yield, known as the "anchor of global asset pricing," fall next year when the Federal Reserve first cuts interest rates? A report released by Bank of America this week provides an incredible answer - the lowest possible drop is 2.25%!
The Bank of America pointed out that the rise of US treasury bond bonds before the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time may have just started.
At present, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen from the 16 year high of over 5% hit in October and continues to fall towards the 4% mark - the latest trading in late Thursday trading in New York was at 4.152%. According to Bank of America's analysis of bond trends between the last rate hike and the first rate cut in the history of the Federal Reserve, the 10-year US Treasury yield is likely to fall by up to nearly 200 basis points in the future.
Bank of America strategists Ralph Axel, Meghan Swiber and others said in the report sent to customers that since the 1988 cycle, in the past five interest rate increase cycles, whenever the Federal Reserve completed the last interest rate increase, the US treasury bond bonds will rise sharply before the first interest rate cut.
According to the calculations of strategists at Bank of America, the maximum decline in 10-year US Treasury yields during this period was 163 basis points, with an average decline of 107 basis points.
Therefore, if applied to the current situation, the answer is clearly already very clear.
Although the yield of US 10-year treasury bond bonds has dropped by about 90 basis points from the peak in October, it is still higher than the level when the Federal Reserve last raised interest rates to 5.25% to 5.5% in July. Based on the yield of 3.87% during the last interest rate hike in July this year, Bank of America strategists estimate that by May 2024, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond may drop as low as about 2.25%, and based on historical averages, it may drop to 2.8%.
May next year is also the window estimate for the first 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the money market.
Given that global central banks may shift their bets from rate hikes to rate cuts next year, this study by Bank of America has become the primary concern for investors. It undoubtedly helps people learn from the past and understand the possible trend of US bond yields. This will also have a ripple effect on the global market.
However, it should be pointed out that the second largest bank in the United States has not placed its predictions on the aforementioned research. The bank's own benchmark forecast remains that the 10-year US Treasury yield will be at 4.25% by the end of next year, which is not far from the current level.
Bank of America strategists remind that the above research is just a simple copy of historical trends. They also warned that lingering inflationary pressures may limit the rise of US Treasury bonds.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

本版积分规则

  • 【科技记者古尔曼:苹果计划于12月第一周发布iOS 18.2系统更新 带来更多人工智能功能】科技记者古尔曼透露,苹果计划于12月第一周发布iOS 18.2系统更新。iOS 18.2将为iPhone 15 Pro机型和所有iPhone 16机型带来更多 ...
    cristianna
    昨天 17:32
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
  •   近日,爱立信中国区总裁方迎在接受《经济参考报》记者采访时表示,5G技术在全球范围内得到了迅速发展,但面临商业潜力未能充分挖掘、网络运营难度较以往更高两大挑战。因此,运营商在继续5G网络部署的同时,应关 ...
    blueskybb
    昨天 15:05
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
  • 【特斯拉首次聘请了一位品牌大使】特斯拉近日公布了首位品牌大使韩国奥运射击选手金艺智,这一举动有些出人意料,毕竟它曾经对广告的态度十分不屑。 ...
    xyyg
    昨天 13:34
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
  •   证券时报网讯,纽约州共同退休基金在第三季度对一些科技巨头的股票进行了调整。该基金是美国第三大公共养老金,管理着2677亿美元的资产。该基金三季度出售了231,600股Palantir 股票,将其持股数量降至110万股。 ...
    LEMONKEITH
    昨天 15:12
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
胡胡胡美丽_ss 注册会员
  • 粉丝

    0

  • 关注

    0

  • 主题

    34