Recently, with the official launch of Apple's MR (mixed reality) headset product Vision Pro, many people have referred to it as the "iPhone moment" of virtual reality. Even with a starting price of up to $3499 (approximately RMB 25170), the pre-sale of Vision Pro remains particularly popular. On January 19th at 21:00 Beijing time, Apple's first head display device, Vision Pro, officially began pre-sales. Within 5 minutes of the scheduled opening, the Vision Pro's booking server was overwhelmed, and many people's orders could not be processed. Due to insufficient initial stock, the inventory was sold out 18 minutes after the order was opened.
At present, many users receive their goods after March and April this year, and some domestic scalpers have even reached a purchasing price of up to 90000 yuan. And the reason for such a grand occasion, as Apple CEO Cook said: We are glad that you have experienced space computing for the first time!
However, amidst the booming sales of Vision Pro, Securities Times reporters visited Shenzhen Huaqiangbei and found that Huaqiangbei has shown a lukewarm response to Vision Pro. There has not been a situation where Apple releases a large number of new products as soon as a certain product is released, and it is even difficult to find a dedicated sales outlet for MR products in Huaqiangbei.
Journalists exploring Huaqiangbei
Recently, a reporter from Securities Times visited Huaqiangbei in Shenzhen and found that it is almost difficult to find stalls specifically selling VR, MR and other head display products in several large markets of Huaqiangbei. After multiple inquiries, a reporter from the Securities Times finally found a stall in a certain market for selling head display products.
The reporter saw that the head display products sold at this stall have a similar appearance to Apple's latest Vision Pro. The stall owner labeled it as "MR all-in-one machine, special price 1999".
The following is a screenshot of the official website of Apple Vision Pro:
It is understood that compared to the current mainstream head display that mainly relies on physical controllers and tactile feedback for interaction, Vision Pro's interaction is closer to nature, such as surprised sounds, gestures, and eye tracking. According to feedback from the actual machine experience, after completing an eye tracking setting, users can enter the application desktop. The eye tracking effect of Vision Pro is excellent, and users only need to stare at the menu item ring button, and the system will immediately highlight it. When watching and scanning in the AppleTV application, the system will highlight the movie name, etc. In addition, due to the size and weight of the Vision Pro, wearing it for too long can cause discomfort in the user's neck. Therefore, Apple will provide a "double band" accessory to optimize wearing comfort.
However, it should be noted that although the appearance is similar, after experiencing it, the reporter found that Huaqiangbei's products are not much different from previous VR products, mainly only used for watching movies and 3D movies. This product not only lacks the breakthrough gesture operation and eye tracking technology of Vision Pro, but still can only rely on a handle and the button on the right side of the product for "cancel", "confirm" and other operations.
Even in the experience, the reporter saw that there were many "burrs" on the borders of some of the APP images it presented. Obviously, this product currently only achieves similarity in appearance, with almost nothing in the breakthrough technological aspects of Apple Vision Pro.
The owner of the stall said, "The main purpose of this product is to watch movies, and there's nothing else to do. Besides, at this thousand yuan price point, do you still want to reach Apple's level? This is simply impossible."
When asked by the reporter if there were any higher and better related products, the boss said, "You can only wait until after the Spring Festival to take a look, but it is impossible to reach the level of Apple."
And in another stall that sells the same MR product. The stall owner said, "Nowadays, people occasionally come to ask, but almost no one places an order, they just watch the excitement. The main reason is that this product is still too niche, and it can only be used to sit at home and watch movies, and it has no other use. Some people wear it for a long time and it is not very comfortable. Moreover, if you buy this product in large quantities, it will cost 1600 yuan, which is still too expensive for ordinary people to buy and experience freshness."
The above stall owner also stated that this product has a congenital flaw, which is that "you can still wear a high imitation Apple phone and watch to 'show off' and 'install it'. My high imitation Apple watch is only sold for more than 100 yuan, which shows that you can only play on the sofa at home and others cannot see it, so naturally fewer people buy it."
In fact, Securities Times reporters visited several well-known markets in Huaqiangbei and did not see any stalls specializing in selling head display products. A stall owner also bluntly said, "If we sell this alone, we'll starve to death."
Obviously, Apple's MR headset product Vision Pro has not caused a significant stir in Shenzhen Huaqiangbei.
The "regular army" is fully following up
It is understood that since the first year of virtual reality in 2016, the development of past head display products has always faced a contradiction between "high performance", "portability" and cost, and even a combination product of "mobile phone+VR glasses" appeared at one point, with a price of only a few tens or hundreds of yuan, but many users often abandon it after experiencing it.
Recently, a Securities Times reporter saw the company's first generation head display product at the product display center of a virtual reality enterprise in Shenzhen. After the head display product, the wearer also needs to carry a several kilogram "hardware backpack". The person in charge of the product said, "Previously, due to insufficient computing power, we could only carry a 'computer' behind our back. Now, with the help of Qualcomm's chips, we no longer need a computer on our back. The company's latest product is completely benchmark against Vision Pro, and technically, we can reach 60%, but in terms of price, we only need 1400 yuan."
Analysts point out that although the Vision Pro still has a certain distance from being lightweight, it achieves clearer imaging, stronger computing power, and more convenient interaction through much higher hardware configurations than other VR/MR devices, thereby solving many problems such as low resolution, dizziness, and complex interaction in the past.
In fact, Securities Times reporters learned that at the recent CES2024 exhibition, many domestic and foreign companies launched their own MR products and are fully following up with Apple.
Taking Skyworth Group as an example, the company showcased Skyworth's new MR product PANCAKE 2 for the first time during CES2024, bringing people back to reality from the virtual world. This is a representative product of Skyworth XR space computing devices, which is benchmarked against Apple Vision Pro and uses a single eye 4K Micro OLED screen with dual eye 8K resolution. This is also the world's second and China's first single eye 4K MR product.
Skyworth Digital also announced on the Interactive Easy platform on January 17th that PANCAKE 2 allows virtual images to be overlaid on the real scene captured by the camera, allowing virtual objects to interact with reality smoothly and naturally with both hands. In MR scenes, multiple players, web browsers, etc. can be placed, combined with future TOF or 3D structured light reconstruction. Through MR products, real scenes such as tables, computers, walls, etc. can be perceived in an immersive manner for spatial interaction and calculation. The era of spatial computing will come. The launch of Apple's MR new product will have a revolutionary driving effect on the hardware industry chain and software content ecosystem.
Meanwhile, foreign manufacturer Meta released a new generation of VR products called Quest 3 at the end of September 2023. This is a new product developed by Meta after three years of research and development. It uses the new Snapdragon XR2 Gen2 processor, equipped with dual camera 4K+ultra clear image quality, excellent tactile feedback for gesture operation, and a lightweight exterior design, providing users with a more immersive user experience.
Before introducing Quest 3 at the press conference, Meta founder Mark Zuckerberg claimed that it was "the world's first mainstream mixed reality headset.". Compared to the previous generation Quest 2 device, Quest 3 is also equipped with 4 tracking cameras, but this time it has been upgraded to include 2 RGB lenses and 1 depth sensor, allowing it to scan the surrounding environment. The virtual world composed of 3DCG is seamlessly integrated with the real world, similar to Vision Pro, improving video connectivity.
"iPhone Moment" still needs time to verify
In 2007, Steve Jobs stepped onto the stage wearing his iconic black top and sneakers, releasing the world changing product - the first generation iPhone. From that moment on, the entire smartphone industry was overturned, and countless people's lifestyles were completely changed. At this historic product launch event, Steve Jobs showcased to the outside world how the first generation iPhone "redefined the phone.".
For the virtual reality industry, the release of Vision Pro may mean that the "iPhone moment" of virtual reality is approaching, and both the hardware form and software ecosystem will bring disruptive changes to the entire industry. Apple CEO Tim Cook said that the era of spatial computing has arrived, and the Vision Pro is the most advanced consumer electronics device in history.
Overall, in the face of expensive prices, current head display products are still just niche devices.
Guo Minggui, an analyst at Tianfeng International Securities who has been tracking the Apple industry chain for many years, pointed out in the latest report that based on the pre order stocking level and shipping time, it is estimated that Apple will sell 160000-180000 Vision Pro units over the first weekend after opening up pre orders for Vision Pro. Consistent with previous predictions, the opening of Vision Pro pre orders means that all models are sold out, and the shipping time for each model is generally extended to 5-7 weeks within a few hours after the opening of pre orders. It should not be difficult for Vision Pro to reach a shipment volume of 500000 units this year. But after the pre order sales were sold out, demand rapidly declined, so it is still necessary to closely observe other market demands and application updates in the future to determine changes in demand.
Guo Minggui also stated that early signs may indicate that market demand for Vision Pro is weakening. Within 48 hours of the booking opening, those extended delivery times did not change, which raised a major concern that demand may rapidly weaken after core fans and heavy users place orders.
Currently, Wall Street analysts generally expect that the expensive Vision Pro will not immediately bring significant revenue growth to Apple. They are monitoring people's initial reactions to Apple's new product categories to demonstrate their future potential. At present, Vision Pro is still a very niche product.
In fact, it took three years from the release of the first generation iPhone in 2007 to the transformation of the entire mobile phone industry triggered by the iPhone 4 in 2010. Therefore, the changes brought about by Vision Pro require further verification over time.
Skyworth Digital also stated that the MR industry is currently in its early stages of development, mainly focusing on industry application solutions. Subsequent scaling up will achieve cost optimization. Combining hardware will make it lighter, more convenient to interact, and richer in content, leading to the formation of a consumer market on the C-end (live streaming, sports, entertainment, movie watching, social networking, etc.). The company began laying out its virtual reality business in 2015. With the development of the industry and the support of technological iteration, the MR industry itself has entered a new upward cycle. The company will continue to invest in innovation in this field, and combined with the company's competitive advantage in the future operator market, we believe that the industry will develop well in the medium and long term.
In addition, Dongwu Securities pointed out that in the past, due to limitations in device performance and the number of active end users, content manufacturers had low enthusiasm for layout, and the number of XR content applications was small and limited to entertainment scenes such as movies and games. We believe that Apple's entry into the software and hardware ecosystem is worth paying attention to. On the one hand, Vision Pro will be compatible with iPhone and iPad applications, with a relatively rich initial ecosystem. On the other hand, Apple's strong developer ecosystem is expected to spawn more excellent native MR content. "We believe that the initial user penetration rate of the product may be limited by factors such as price, but in the long run, we are optimistic about its expansion into XR application scenarios, radiating to generalized scenarios such as office, and becoming the next generation of interactive terminals. As envisioned by Apple CEO, Mac will bring users into the era of Personal Computing; iPhone will bring users into the era of Mobile Computing; and Apple Vision Pro will take users into the era of Spatial Computing."
