On the morning of November 29th (Wednesday) Beijing time, Tesla officially announced that the new pickup truck Cybertruck will be delivered at the Austin Superfactory in Texas at 2:00 pm Central Time (4:00 am Beijing time on December 1st) on November 30th. At that time, Tesla's official website will be broadcasted simultaneously. This is two years behind the initial delivery promise.
Last week, Tesla also showcased the Cybertruck in multiple stores in North America, which sparked expectations from the outside world for this model.
During Tesla's earnings conference call for the third quarter of this year, Musk likened Cybertruck production to "digging its own grave" and described the "nightmare of the supply chain" as a challenge to Cybertruck production. Now, with the launch of Cybertruck delivery, the question before investors and Tesla remains unanswered: will Cybertruck become Tesla's best-selling model? Will it have low production capacity like its MPV Model X? Can Cybertruck get a share of the fiercely competitive pickup truck market?
Based on the reactions from all parties before the official delivery of Cybertruck, the market is not optimistic about the short-term production capacity of vehicle pickup trucks. Due to the difficulty in welding the superhard stainless steel used in vehicles and the limitations in the production capacity of Tesla's Texas Superfactory 4680 batteries, the production of Cybertruck will be constrained. Given these reasons, some analysts have suggested that Tesla cancel Cybertruck and focus on "large-scale production in the global market and the supply of 4680 batteries carried by Model Y", rather than investing more resources in improving Cybertruck production.
Cybertruck, who was "late" for two years
After two years, Tesla finally announced the launch of the new pickup truck Cybertruck delivery.
When Tesla began accepting Cybertruck bookings in 2019, the starting price of this pickup truck ranged from $39900 to $69900. Tesla initially stated that the delivery of Cybertruck would begin after the end of 2021. However, during the delivery phase, the company suddenly deleted the pricing and body specifications of Cybertruck from its official website, and it has not been restored since then.
One key reason for the delay of two years was Tesla's decision to use superhard stainless steel to manufacture Cybertruck, which uses the same material for the appearance as Musk's SpaceX Starship.
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Bloomberg reported that although superhard stainless steel is corrosion-resistant and does not require painting, its cost is high, and welding these superhard stainless steel panels together is a very challenging task. In addition, superhard stainless steel is often heavier than the steel commonly used in most car and truck bodies.
At the beginning of this month, when Tesla's chief designer Franz von Holzhusen appeared at a car enthusiast event in Southern California with a prototype Cybertruck, photos of the vehicle quickly began to circulate online. From the photos, it appeared that the outer edge of the vehicle's mudguard was misaligned, and the gaps in the body panels were large enough to be inserted with fingers.
In an internal email sent by Musk to Tesla employees at the end of August this year, it was revealed that "due to Cybertruck being made of bright metal with mostly straight edges, any size change will be particularly noticeable." At that time, Musk ordered all body designs and manufacturing of Cybertruck to be precise to below 10 micrometers, or one millionth of a meter.
Eric Noble, President of The CarLab, an American automotive product and design consulting firm, stated that the problem with Cybertruck is a problem with the concept itself. He said, "The pickup truck market does not require stainless steel surfaces, quirky models, and lines. These are questions that the pickup truck market has never asked before."
An analyst suggested canceling Cybertruck
The Daily Economic News reporter noticed that Cybertruck is Tesla's first ultra-high voltage model, using an 800V architecture. However, this is not unique to Tesla: Porsche's Taycan electric sports car launched in 2019 is already equipped with an 800V architecture.
In addition, Cybertruck is Tesla's only product to date equipped with internal batteries. According to some technical details revealed by Tesla during the Q2 earnings conference call, Cybertruck Electric will use a more advanced and higher energy density version of the 4680 battery, which has previously been used in some Model Y production at its Texas factory.
It must be mentioned that Tesla's internal battery production progress has been several years behind schedule. In mid October, Tesla officially announced the production of its 20th millionth 4680th battery at a Texas super factory.
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However, Cybertruck has a greater demand for 4680 battery units. Assuming Tesla produces 100000 100 kilowatt hour versions of Cybertruck each year, it requires 110 million 4680 batteries, which means that the production capacity of these batteries needs to be increased several times.
During the earnings conference call for the third quarter, when asked how many Cyberracks he expected Tesla to deliver in 2024, Musk did not directly answer this question. Musk said at the time, "If you want to do something radical and innovative, such as something truly unique like Cybertruck, it is very difficult because nothing can be replicated. You not only have to invent cars, but also the methods of making cars. So the more unknown the fields, the harder it is to predict the results."
Bloomberg reported that Cybertruck may be a major setback for Tesla in automotive manufacturing. During his most recent public discussion about Cybertruck, Musk compared the model to Tesla's Model X, which has never been in high production.
Regarding Model X, Musk once said, "Model X is a bit like a technology trend, encompassing all the cool things we can think of at once. But this is a terrible strategy because people want to start simple and then constantly add new things over time."
Both the Model S and Model X models have not yet achieved large-scale production (Bloomberg)
Tesla's ultimate success in the market ultimately relied on its emphasis on minimalism and easy to manufacture body design. This approach also made the Model 3 and Model Y the earliest electric vehicles to enter the mainstream market, and propelled Tesla to become the world's highest market value car manufacturer.
However, last month, when Musk called Tesla's earnings conference call to say that producing Cybertruck was "digging his own grave," he also warned that Cybertruck "has a lot of fancy things."
Perhaps Tesla may eventually overcome Musk's enormous challenge of achieving large-scale production of Cybertruck without burning money. However, according to Musk's own estimation, this will require 12-18 months of "blood, sweat, and tears". He also stated that Tesla is unlikely to achieve an annual production of 250000 Cyberracks by 2025.
In such a difficult prospect, some analysts have even suggested that Tesla cancel Cybertruck. Jeffrey analyst Philippe Houchois predicts that Tesla's profits and free cash flow will decrease, and has lowered the target price of Tesla's stock to $210 per share.
Houchois believes that although Cybertruck is an excellent product, from a financial perspective, it takes one to a year and a half for it to have a positive impact on the company's cash flow. He suggested that Tesla should focus on "mass production in the global market and the supply of 4680 batteries carried by Model Y", rather than investing more resources in improving Cybertruck production.
