Fed Minutes: Most participants saw one more rate hike as likely to be appropriate
王俊杰2017
发表于 2023-10-12 18:51:54
267
0
0
Although inflation has moderated since the middle of last year, it remains well above the 2 percent longer-run objective, and participants remained firmly committed to bringing inflation down to that objective. In these economic conditions, and given the significant cumulative tightening of the stance of monetary policy and the lag in the effects of policy on economic activity and inflation, nearly all participants judged it appropriate to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.5% at the September meeting. Participants believed that maintaining this policy constraint would facilitate further progress toward the 2 percent inflation objective, while allowing the Open Market Committee (FOMC) time to gather additional data to assess that progress.
In their discussion of the outlook for policy, participants continued to view it as critical that the stance of monetary policy remain restrictive enough to allow inflation to fall back toward the 2 percent objective over time. Most participants judged that one additional increase in the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate at future meetings, while some thought that further increases might not be necessary.
Participants discussed a number of risk management considerations that could influence future policy decisions. With inflation remaining well above the Fed's longer-run objective and the labor market remaining tight, most participants continued to see upside risks to inflation. These include a longer-than-expected persistence of the overall supply-demand imbalance, as well as risks from global oil markets, possible upward shocks to food prices, the impact of a strong housing market on housing inflation, and the possibility of a more limited decline in commodity prices. A number of participants commented that while economic activity was resilient and the labor market remained strong, risks to economic activity remained on the downside and risks to the unemployment rate on the upside. Risks include a larger-than-expected lag in the macroeconomic impact of tighter financial conditions, the impact of trade union strikes, a slowdown in global growth, and continued weakness in the commercial real estate (CRE) sector. Participants generally noted that the focus was on balancing the risks of too much austerity against the risks of not enough.
In discussing the economic outlook, participants' economic forecasts were stronger than previously projected in July, as consumer and business spending appeared to be more resilient to tight financial conditions than previously expected. Participants believed that subsequent GDP growth this year would be affected by the auto workers' strike, and that these effects would be offset by a small boost to GDP growth next year, but the size and timing of the effects were highly uncertain. Participants projected that average real GDP growth in 2024 to 2026 would be lower than this year and would be lower than participants' expectations for potential output growth. Over the next few years, potential output growth will be dampened by the lagged effects of monetary policy action.
Participants expected the unemployment rate to remain roughly unchanged through 2026, as upward pressure from real GDP growth below potential output would be offset by downward pressure from further improvements in labor market functioning. Overall and core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price inflation will be around 3.5% by the end of the year. As supply and demand in the product and labor markets continue to evolve in a better direction, inflation is expected to move lower in the coming years. By 2026, headline and core PCE price inflation will be close to 2 percent.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- Xiao Mo's helmsman: Continuing to discuss whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another 25 basis points is meaningless
- Is inflation cooling down due to strong US economy? Nobel laureate: If the Fed raises interest rates again, it's crazy. We should immediately lower interest rates!
- Is the US economy strong and inflation cooling down? Nobel laureate: If the Fed raises interest rates again, it would be crazy. We should immediately lower interest rates!
- The first "sleepless night" of 2024: Will tonight's Federal Reserve minutes pour cold water on expectations of interest rate cuts?
- The internal competition among car companies is intensifying, with Tesla's highest price reduction of 15500 yuan
- Global highlights for next week: When the US stock market hits a new high again, Federal Reserve minutes and Powell's speech hit repeatedly
- Pinduoduo's "Billion Dollar Reduction" Policy Increases Refund Orders for All Products, Automatically Returning Technical Service Fees
- Is the Japanese stock market expected to receive another boost from the "stock god"? Berkshire Hathaway plans to issue Japanese yen bonds for the second time this year
- Government subsidies will be increased, and home appliances, smart homes, and furniture can all be combined with Tmall Double 11 discounts
- Add more red envelopes to Taobao live streaming room! Tmall's "Double 11" falls another 500 million red envelope rain
-
苹果知名分析师郭明錤周四(10月31日)在社交媒体上发文表示,苹果明年可能会减少对芯片制造商博通Wi-Fi芯片的依赖,并推出自己的处理器。 郭明錤在社交媒体平台X上写道,“在2025年下半年的新产品(例如iPh ...
- uturn
- 昨天 14:42
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
10月30日,小鹏汽车生态企业小鹏汇天宣布,旗下分体式飞行汽车“陆地航母”即将亮相2024中国航展,11月12日将在中国航展第二展区(斗门莲洲)进行全球首次公开飞行,同时“陆地航母”也将在珠海国际航展中心8号 ...
- yxtianyouyou
- 前天 11:43
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
交易所监管文件显示,当地时间11月1日,亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝索斯拟出售约1635万股亚马逊股票,预计套现约30.5亿美元。今年7月,贝索斯已申请额外出售约2500万股亚马逊股票,按当时股价计算可套现约50亿美元。 ...
- blueskybb
- 10 小时前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
近日,凯撒海湾目的地(山东)运营管理有限责任公司(简称“凯撒海湾”)与携程旅悦集团签署战略合作协议,双方将围绕“海上目的地运营”、“旅游产品与服务创新”、“研学旅行”、“日韩及海外旅游市场开拓”等 ...
- llyyy2008
- 9 小时前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏