Currently, world financial leaders are gathering in Washington, ostensibly focused on economic issues such as debt, inflation, and interest rates. But in reality, what they really care about is Donald Trump.
Global finance ministers gathered in Washington on Monday to attend the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank (October 21-26). This annual meeting attracted over 10000 people from finance ministries, central banks, and civil society organizations from various countries to discuss various topics such as boosting global economic growth, addressing debt crises, and financing for the transition to green energy.
But according to reports, the possibility of former US President Trump returning to the White House is the focus of their attention. In public seminars and group discussions, or at closed door dinners, they were constantly discussing the vote in less than two weeks (November 5th).
Amir Hamzah Azizan, the Second Minister of Finance of Malaysia, said in an interview, "Everyone is talking about the US election, holding their breath
This is because the two presidential candidates provided the United States with different visions. Some officials compared them with the biggest risks of global stability, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Middle East war. Vice President Harris represents stability, while Trump threatens to disrupt global trade by imposing tariffs of up to 20% on all countries, even more so than his first term.
In the words of a senior IMF official, at a time when the global economy is on the track of a soft landing and investors are generally optimistic, policy outcomes are far apart and can become a source of "high uncertainty".
The market hates uncertainty, with the biggest uncertainty looming over these meetings: who will be the next US president? "Said Josh Lipsky, director of the Center for Geoeconomics at the Atlantic Council, a US think tank." This is important for everyone
In addition, during the conference break, participants also participated in many "election guessing games".
Goldman Sachs held a client dinner where celebrity opinion poll expert Nate Silver delivered a keynote speech. The Institute of International Finance has invited former Secretary of State Trump Mike Pompeo to attend a dinner.
In addition, at JPMorgan's investor seminar, there was a session on the topic of "Will Trump Win?", with speakers on the agenda including Jim Messina, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Obama administration, and Scott Besant, Senior Advisor to Trump.
However, these officials are usually very careful not to let people see which candidate they are more biased towards. Most people even try to avoid mentioning Trump's name.
European Central Bank President Lagarde said that regardless of who wins the election, trading partners should be treated with caution.
The period of restrictions and barriers is not a period of prosperity and strong leadership around the world. Whoever becomes the next President of the United States should at least remember this, "she said.