There are less than two months left until the US election on November 5th. According to a national opinion poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Kamala Harris are still evenly matched in this final stage, with no clear winner.
The poll results released on Sunday showed that Trump's approval rating of 48% was only one percentage point higher than Harris's (47%), which is completely within a margin of error of 3 percentage points in the survey. This means that from the current perspective, they both have a chance of ultimately winning the election.
Although Trump's campaign went through a relatively difficult period during the weeks when Biden announced his withdrawal and Harris just announced his takeover, recent polls show that his core supporters have not wavered.
Public opinion polls clearly show that voters feel they need to know more about Harris, and their views on Trump are largely fixed. In the survey, 28% of potential voters said they needed more information about Democratic candidates, while only 9% had the same opinion about Trump.
According to polls, the presidential debate scheduled for Tuesday (10th) may be a critical moment.
Harris will have the opportunity to provide more details of her planned policies during the 90 minute debate with Trump. The current competition is so evenly matched that even a slight improvement would be significant for any candidate.
Since Harris replaced Biden as the Democratic presidential candidate this summer, she has been vigorously promoting her campaign, but she has also never appeared unprepared and has kept the number of interviews with the news media to a minimum.
Overall, in the national average poll tracked by the Hill/Decision DESK HQ (DDHQ), Harris has a support rate of 49.4%, while Trump has a support rate of 45.8%.
The Swinging State Controversy
A new poll in Michigan shows that Trump's lead over Harris has been largely erased.
According to the statewide EPIC MRA poll conducted from August 23-26, Trump's approval rating is 46%, only one percentage point higher than Harris' 45%. In addition, respondents have a favorable rating of 45% for the Republican presidential candidate, while 46% for Harris.
Another media poll showed that Harris is ahead of Trump among potential voters in Wisconsin and Michigan, while Trump has an advantage in Arizona. In Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, the two candidates are evenly matched, with Pennsylvania widely regarded as a key battleground due to its largest number of electoral votes.
About 15% of potential voters in each state indicate that they have not yet made a final decision. This indicates that with nine weeks left until election day, people's attention to the campaign is increasing, and the campaign (especially in these states) is reaching its peak, many voters' views on the candidates may change.
In Wisconsin, Harris received the support of 50% of voters, while Trump received 44%; In Michigan, Harris' approval rating is 48%, while Trump's is 43%. In Arizona, Trump's approval rating is 49%, while Harris has 44% support.
In addition, in Georgia and Nevada, 48% of voters each lean towards Harris, while 47% lean towards Trump; In Pennsylvania, the situation of the two candidates is similar, with each having a support rate of 47%.