How many basis points will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates in November? Next week is crucial
芊芊551
发表于 2024-9-29 16:41:45
166
0
0
After the Federal Reserve began its interest rate cut cycle, global capital markets benefited and stock markets in multiple countries hit new highs.
Next week, the market will witness two major events, both of which will affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy.
Next Monday, Federal Reserve Secretary Powell will deliver a speech discussing the outlook for the US economy.
Next Friday, the US government will release non farm payroll data for September.
The September employment report is expected to show a healthy labor market in the United States, but with some moderation.
The market expects that the number of employed people in the United States is expected to increase by 146000 in September, similar to the increase in August, which will bring the average three-month employment growth in the United States close to the lowest level since mid-2019.
The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.2%, and the average hourly income is expected to increase by 3.8% compared to the same period last year.
Bloomberg economists predict strong growth in non farm payrolls in September, which may even reignite discussions about a "no landing" for the US economy.
But Bloomberg believes that the overall data will exaggerate the strength of the labor market, partly because the models of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics exaggerate the strength of the labor market, and partly because of temporary seasonal effects.
In addition to the employment data for September, job vacancy data will also be released next Tuesday, which is currently expected to show job vacancies in August approaching the lowest level since early 2021.
In addition, the market will also pay attention to the turnover rate and layoff rate to measure the degree of cooling labor demand.
How much interest rate will be cut in November?
With the start of the interest rate cut cycle, the importance of inflation related data has decreased for the Federal Reserve, and economic related data such as employment have become more important.
The employment report next Friday is the last employment data before the Fed officials' meeting in early November, which will affect the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts.
In addition, data shows that inflation in the United States is gradually moving towards the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
This Friday, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, the August PCE annual rate, fell more than expected to 2.2%.
At present, there is still significant divergence in the market regarding the magnitude of the November interest rate cut, with a probability of 53.3% for a 50 basis point cut and 46.7% for a 25 basis point cut.
The market also expects a 100% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by more than 75 basis points within the year, which means there will definitely be a significant 50 basis point rate cut at the November and December meetings.
Officials: gradual interest rate cuts should be implemented
Recently, Alberto Musalem, the President of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, stated that the Fed should gradually reduce interest rates.
Musalem pointed out, "For me, the most important thing at this stage is to relax the brakes, which is to gradually ease the restrictions of policies
Musalem is one of the officials expected to cut interest rates multiple times this year and will become a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee next year.
He acknowledges that the labor market has cooled down in recent months, but remains optimistic about the outlook given the low layoff rate and the potential strength of the economy.
He said that the business sector is in a "good state" and overall activity is "steady", and stated that large-scale layoffs do not seem to be "imminent".
However, he also acknowledged that the risks faced by the Federal Reserve may require it to cut interest rates faster.
Musalem bluntly said, "I realize that the economy may be weaker than I currently expect, and the labor market may also be weaker than I currently expect. If that's the case, then accelerating the pace of interest rate cuts may be appropriate
Last week, Federal Reserve official Waller also stated that if the data weakens faster, he would be "more willing to actively cut interest rates".
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- Is it impossible to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in November? Federal Reserve Governor Waller: Future interest rate cuts need to be 'more cautious'!
- Last night, there were multiple historical highs! The 'terrifying data' exceeds expectations, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations are hit again
- The Federal Reserve is deceiving Hu, and Trump is making efforts! Emerging markets are in trouble
- Apple marketing chief confirms plans to update Mac product line next week
- Apple AI will officially debut next week and undergo testing by nearly 1.5 billion 'fruit fans'! The first batch of user experience has been released, and there is a huge divergence on Wall Street
- Big news from the Federal Reserve! A round of violent selling in the US bond market
- Is the Federal Reserve's "two consecutive declines" hoping to fail? CEO of Da Mo: The good days of 'cheap funds' are over!
- The US economy grew slower than expected in the third quarter, and the market generally expects a 25 basis point interest rate cut next month
- The Federal Reserve will have an important meeting next week! International banks predict 'bright prospects for interest rate cuts'
-
苹果知名分析师郭明錤周四(10月31日)在社交媒体上发文表示,苹果明年可能会减少对芯片制造商博通Wi-Fi芯片的依赖,并推出自己的处理器。 郭明錤在社交媒体平台X上写道,“在2025年下半年的新产品(例如iPh ...
- uturn
- 昨天 14:42
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
10月30日,小鹏汽车生态企业小鹏汇天宣布,旗下分体式飞行汽车“陆地航母”即将亮相2024中国航展,11月12日将在中国航展第二展区(斗门莲洲)进行全球首次公开飞行,同时“陆地航母”也将在珠海国际航展中心8号 ...
- yxtianyouyou
- 前天 11:43
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
交易所监管文件显示,当地时间11月1日,亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝索斯拟出售约1635万股亚马逊股票,预计套现约30.5亿美元。今年7月,贝索斯已申请额外出售约2500万股亚马逊股票,按当时股价计算可套现约50亿美元。 ...
- blueskybb
- 10 小时前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
近日,凯撒海湾目的地(山东)运营管理有限责任公司(简称“凯撒海湾”)与携程旅悦集团签署战略合作协议,双方将围绕“海上目的地运营”、“旅游产品与服务创新”、“研学旅行”、“日韩及海外旅游市场开拓”等 ...
- llyyy2008
- 9 小时前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏