IFF 2023 Global Financial and Development Report: Projected global economic growth of 3.1 per cent
楚一帆
发表于 2023-10-29 13:19:58
331
0
0
For 2024, global economic growth is expected to remain weak at 3.1 per cent, with 1.3 per cent growth in developed countries and 4.3 per cent growth in developing economies, as monetary policy and financial conditions continue to tighten.
On the ground, the Co-Chairs of the International Finance Forum (IFF) and Vice-President Zhou Xiaochuan of the Twelfth China Political Consultative Conference called for greater coordination and cooperation in addressing the economic challenges facing the world today. Countries should maintain the right direction of globalization, reject protectionism, defend multilateralism, avoid the construction of strong barriers, break chains and economic coercion, strengthen the coordination of their macroeconomic, financial and regulatory policies and avoid new imbalances caused by unilateralism and unilateral sanctions.
In 2023, global inflation slowed against the backdrop of tight monetary policy, a slowdown in global growth, a fall in world commodity prices (especially energy prices) and continued improvements in global supply. In 2024, global inflation is expected to slow to 5.8 per cent as a result of the continued stifling of demand growth by tight monetary and financial conditions and the further easing of supply-side bottlenecks caused by the epidemic, with inflation projected at 2.8 per cent in developed countries and 7.8 per cent in developing economies.
According to the report, the global economic outlook is affected by several downside risks, including that inflationary pressures may be more persistent; that monetary and financial tightening may lead to more bank failures and financial instability in developed countries and further deepen the debt problems of developing countries; that geopolitical tensions may increase, leading to further fragmentation of geo-economics and geo-finance; and that China, which accounts for one third of global economic growth, is likely to grow less than expected. If these risks materialize, global economic growth will fall short of expectations and global inflation will rise above expectations.
Economic prospects for the next two years: Asian growth is still ahead of the world.
Global economic growth slowed further in 2023, following a sharp fall in 2022, as countries tightened their monetary policies to contain inflation. The ongoing Russian-Uu conflict and the lingering negative impact of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic have also limited the pace of economic recovery.
The current market consensus is that the global economy will grow by about 3.1 per cent in 2023, down from 3.4 per cent in 2022 (using national weights at PPP rates). Of these, developed economies will grow by 1.5 per cent and developing economies by 4.1 per cent.
The global economy will continue to recover in 2024, but remains weak. The new coronary pneumonia epidemic has finally come to an end and no longer constrains global economic growth. The monetary tightening cycle is likely to end in 2024 in most countries.
Among the major regional economies, developing countries in Asia will grow by 5.2 per cent in 2023 and 2024; high-income regions in Asia will grow by 2 per cent and 1.7 per cent, respectively, in those years; developing countries in Europe will grow by 1.7 per cent and 2 per cent, respectively; the EU will grow by 0.8 per cent and 1.5 per cent, respectively; Latin America and the Caribbean will grow by 2.4 per cent and 2.4 per cent, the Middle East and North Africa by 2.9 per cent and 3.2 per cent, and North America by 1.9 per cent and 1.2 per cent, respectively.
Among the major economies, the United States economy is expected to grow by 2 per cent in 2023, slightly below 2.1 per cent in 2022; growth is expected to slow to 1.2 per cent in 2024. The main risk to future economic growth in the United States is that if monetary austerity ends too soon, inflation will rise again; if monetary austerity ends too late, the economy will fall into recession, leading to more bank failures and increased financial instability.
The EU economy is expected to grow by 0.8 per cent in 2023 and 1.5 per cent in 2024, all below 3.7 per cent in 2022. A major risk to future economic growth in the EU is the escalation of the Russian-Uu conflict, which has led to a sharp rise in energy prices and a significant decline in consumer and business confidence.
China ' s economy is expected to grow by 5.2 per cent in 2023 and 5 per cent in 2024. The recovery in economic growth was mainly due to the return to normality as a result of the elimination of the dynamic zero-sum policy of the new coronary pneumonia epidemic at the end of 2022. The main risks to future economic growth in China include a downturn in the real estate sector that exceeds expectations, a further increase in local government debt pressure and weak external demand.
Four risk points for sustained global growth
The report argues that the next global growth risk will be major in four areas.
First, inflationary pressures may be more persistent. The prevailing view in the market is that global inflation will continue to decline and will decline to near the central bank target or the long-term average before the outbreak in the second half of 2025 or 2026. However, several factors may lead to inflation remaining high in 2024 and beyond. Core inflation may be more persistent than expected. For example, labour-market tensions can put upward pressure on wages, and continued higher-than-target inflation can also take long-term inflation expectations off the anchor. The escalation of the Russian-Uu conflict could have a greater impact on the global energy and food markets.
Second, the financial dilemma could expand and deepen globally. To contain inflation, central banks around the world have raised interest rates to levels that have not been seen for many years. The high interest rates and the tight financial environment have restrained demand growth and inflation, but have also increased the burden on households, businesses and high-debted Governments, as well as on financial institutions that provide large fixed-interest loans during periods of low interest rates. The direct impact of the debt distress on developing countries and the indirect impact on developed countries could reduce global economic growth, if not trigger a global financial crisis.
Thirdly, geopolitical tensions could lead to greater geo-economic and financial divisions. The Russian-Uu conflict and Western sanctions against Russia have had a significant impact on world commodity markets and are some of the main factors in the global high inflation and economic slowdown.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions are leading to geo-economic and financial fragmentation, with measures often implemented in conjunction with so-called long-armed jurisdictions, which are weakening global trade and cross-border capital flows, limiting the diffusion of technology and the flow of skills, and increasing production, business and financing costs, thus constraining global economic growth.
Fourthly, China ' s economic growth may still face uncertainty. China ' s economic data for recent months have been unsatisfactory owing to weak household consumption, declining housing investment and shrinking exports. Although the Chinese Government had recently introduced a series of policy measures to stimulate domestic consumption and encourage private enterprise investment, it remained to be seen how long those measures would bear fruit.
China ' s economy, which accounts for more than 18 per cent of the global economy (purchasing power parity (PPP) rates), contributes about one third of global economic growth and is the world ' s largest trading power. It is a major trading partner for more than 140 countries and regions worldwide. If growth in China fails to meet expectations, it will have a significant impact on global growth.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- Global chip stocks evaporate $420 billion after ASML sales warning
- Tesla's Supercharging Stations Exceed 60000 Worldwide
- Samsung's US factory delays receipt of ASML lithography machines
- The "Little Pony" card is unveiled globally, accelerating the globalization of card games
- Xiaoma Zhixing hits the "world's first Robotaxi stock", and the "iPhone moment" of autonomous driving is approaching
- The world's first universal autonomous driving stock! Wenyuan Zhixing listed on NASDAQ
- The US economy grew slower than expected in the third quarter, and the market generally expects a 25 basis point interest rate cut next month
- Vipshop's' Global Good Goods Port 'Debuts at CIIE, Gathers Global Good Goods at CIIE
- Global highlights next week: APEC leaders' meeting held, Tencent and Alibaba release financial reports
- The US dollar index rose for 5 consecutive days and broke through the 107 level. Powell claimed that he is not in a hurry to cut interest rates | Global markets
-
知名做空机构香橼研究(Citron Research)周四(11月21日)在社交媒体平台X上发布消息称,该公司已决定做空“比特币大户”微策略(Microstrategy)这家公司,并认为该公司已经将自己变身成为一家比特币投资基金 ...
- caffycat
- 昨天 11:18
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
每经AI快讯,11月20日,文远知行宣布旗下自动驾驶环卫车S6与无人扫路机S1分别在新加坡滨海湾海岸大道与滨海艺术中心正式投入运营。据介绍,这是新加坡首个商业化运营的自动驾驶环卫项目。 ...
- star8699
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
上证报中国证券网讯(记者王子霖)11月20日,斗鱼发布2024年第三季度未经审计的财务报告。本季度斗鱼依托丰富的游戏内容生态,充分发挥主播资源和新业务潜力,持续为用户提供高质量的直播内容及游戏服务,进一步 ...
- goodfriendboy
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
人民网北京11月22日电 (记者栗翘楚、任妍)2024广州车展,在新能源汽车占据“半壁江山”的同时,正加速向智能网联新能源汽车全面过渡,随着“端到端”成为新宠,智能驾驶解决方案成为本届广州车展各大车企竞 ...
- 3233340
- 昨天 17:06
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏