Tesla has further improved its autonomous driving capabilities.
On February 1st, Tesla officially announced an upgrade to the Model Y. Simply put, this upgrade allows Model Y to "see farther, see clearer, and calculate faster": all models of Model Y are equipped with a new generation of automatic driving assistance hardware (HW4.0), achieving an increase in the farthest detection distance; Equipped with camera pixel enhancement, achieving 360 degree ultra high definition perception; The computing power has been greatly improved, and the computing power of the chip has increased by 5 times compared to the previous generation.
According to a research report by Open Source Securities, autonomous driving has become one of the factors measuring the core competitiveness of car models. Car companies such as Huawei, Xiaopeng, and Ideal have all launched urban autonomous driving assistance functions, and sales have continued to reach new highs. The core suppliers of future autonomous driving products are expected to fully enjoy the dividends brought by functional penetration.
Tesla's "Global Sales Championship" is Upgraded
In 2023, the Tesla Model Y surpassed the Toyota Corolla for the first time and became the world's best-selling car.
In 2024, Tesla also made great efforts in promoting the Model Y model. Shortly after the start of the new year, Tesla lowered the price of the Model Y model, followed by this intelligent hardware upgrade, achieving a "no increase in price for more" strategy.
On January 12th, according to Tesla's official Weibo account, the starting price of the Model Y rear wheel drive version was reduced by 7500 yuan to 258900 yuan, and the Model Y long range version was reduced by 6500 yuan to 299900 yuan. On February 1st, the Tesla Model Y underwent another upgrade in its autonomous driving capabilities, marking the official entry of the entire Tesla S3XY series into the era of autonomous assisted driving hardware 4.0.
Specifically, Tesla's new Model Y has achieved "farther" and "clearer" visibility: the all-new generation of autonomous driving assistance hardware (HW4.0) is equipped with ultra long range binocular cameras, with a maximum detection range of 424 meters, significantly improving the upper limit of detection ability, far exceeding the industry average, and being able to perceive changes in road conditions ahead earlier; Equipped with 7 cameras, each with a pixel increase of 5 million, it can clearly perceive changes in surrounding road conditions 360 degrees, enhancing the ability to park, change lanes, and drive in narrow lanes at close range.
Having "eyes" is not enough, the "brain" also needs to be stronger. If the camera is compared to the "visual organ" of a car, then the chip can be seen as the "smart brain" of the car. Compared to the previous generation, Tesla's new Model Y has also achieved "faster calculation": the chip's computing power has increased by five times, which can help quickly process image information. In response to real-time changes in complex road conditions, Autopilot and active safety response are faster and safer.
In terms of appearance, the new Model Y has also added an exclusive "Quick Silver" paint, and uses Flame Red instead of Chinese Red and Starry Grey instead of Cool Silver, improving the car's recognition. According to Tesla's official website, the current estimated delivery cycle for Model Y is 2-6 weeks.
In addition to hardware upgrades, Tesla has also been continuously upgrading its software. Tesla stated that since 2022, Model Y has been updated 22 times through OTA. Real driving data from over a million Tesla car owners worldwide, jointly helping to train Tesla's pure visual algorithms. With the support of OTA air upgrades, car owners can achieve a normalized "one click upgrade" of vehicle safety performance and enjoy updated intelligent driving technology.
Autonomous driving has given rise to industry chain opportunities
It can be seen that the Tesla Model Y has mainly made improvements in hardware such as cameras, thereby significantly enhancing its autonomous driving capabilities.
According to a research report by Dongwu Securities, high pixel cameras have become an industry trend, and improving the pixels of in car cameras is an important way to increase the perception ability of autonomous driving solutions. With the upgrading of autonomous driving levels, the penetration rate of high pixel in car cameras is expected to further increase, and camera pixels will also develop towards higher levels.
Meanwhile, with the development of autonomous driving technology in automobiles, the number of cameras equipped is also expected to increase. According to statistics, there are currently at least 6 cameras for L2 level autonomous driving (partially autonomous driving) models. Zhiyan Consulting predicts that L3 level (conditional autonomous driving) will have more than 7 cameras, while L4 level autonomous driving (highly autonomous driving) requires 13 cameras.
In the second half of 2023, the number of cameras commonly used in new models with intelligent driving capabilities launched in the domestic market has reached over 10. Based on the current penetration rate of autonomous driving technology and the calculation of the average number of cameras carried per vehicle, GAC Automotive Research Institute believes that the market size of ADAS (Advanced Driver Assistance System) cameras for passenger cars in China is expected to exceed 10 billion yuan in 2023, and may reach 25.1 billion yuan by 2025.
Although Tesla has launched a pure vision solution that does not rely on LiDAR, more car companies still adopt a multi vision sensor fusion solution that requires LiDAR. The Wanjie M9 is equipped with a fusion perception system that includes laser, millimeter wave, machine vision, and ultrasound, using a 192 line LiDAR.
It is understood that LiDAR is a sensor that uses air as a medium to achieve distance measurement and environmental perception by emitting a laser beam and receiving reflected signals. It obtains information such as distance, position, and shape of objects in three-dimensional space through repeated measurement and reflection, achieving high-precision three-dimensional environmental perception.
According to market research firm Yole Intelligence, the global ADAS lidar market is expected to increase from $317 million in 2022 to $4.47 billion by 2028, becoming an important application area in the lidar industry.
According to a research report by Guojin Securities, in the long run, the cost of LiDAR is expected to drop below $200, completely solving the key pain points of high costs, standing firm in the field of intelligent driving, and becoming the best choice for car manufacturers. Based on the trend of cost reduction, LiDAR will achieve growth from 1 to N in 2024. It is expected that the sales of models equipped with LiDAR will reach 2.21 million in 2024, with a penetration rate of 10.5%. The industry will experience explosive growth, and the future market space of LiDAR will exceed 100 billion yuan.
