Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, stated in a recent interview that he remains cautious about the US economy for the next two years due to the combined impact of financial and geopolitical risks.
Damon said at the World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland on Wednesday (January 17th), "All these powerful factors will affect us in 2024 and 2025."
Regarding the impact factors for the future, Damon mentioned activities in Ukraine, Israel, and the Red Sea, as well as quantitative tightening. He pointed out, "I still doubt whether we fully understand how this works."
In the past few years, despite being eroded by inflation, US consumption has remained largely healthy due to good employment levels and savings during the pandemic. The largest bank in the United States, JPMorgan Chase, achieved record profits and the US economy exceeded expectations, but Damon has always advocated caution.
In Damon's view, the relatively active stock market in recent months has made investors less vigilant about potential risks in the future.
Damon said, "I think the idea that 'everything is good' is wrong. When the stock market rises, it's like a small drug, and we all think it's great. But remember, we've already taken so many fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, so I tend to be more cautious."
The S&P 500 index has risen 19% in the past year, and Damon believes it is not far from its peak level.
In fact, as early as 2022, Damon had warned investors that there would be an economic "hurricane" in the future due to quantitative tightening and the conflict in Ukraine.
On the same Wednesday, David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, said that if geopolitical factors were excluded, the market environment was "much better" than a year ago, but Solomon was uneasy about the soaring debt level of the United States.
Solomon pointed out, "I am very concerned about the growing debt, which is a significant risk issue that we will have to deal with and consider, and it may not happen in the next six months."