Two and a half months ago, the highest level of the German stock market was 16528 points, but it has continued to decline, currently only slightly exceeding 15000 points.
The stock market is a barometer of the economy, which precisely reflects the difficulties encountered by the German economy during this period.
And many difficulties are due to being too close to the pace of the United States, for example, Germany has also followed the United States in decoupling, but has tasted the consequences.
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In recent years, the US dollar interest rate hike has had a widespread impact on the global economy, and Europe, as an important part of the global economic system, is no exception.
The US dollar interest rate hike has led to a return of funds to the US market, while also creating a certain degree of financial pressure on other economies.
As a major competitor to the US dollar, Europe's relative depreciation of its currency further weakens its export competitiveness, resulting in lower than expected GDP growth.
In addition to the impact of the US dollar interest rate hike, the EU also faces a series of challenges, further exacerbating the economic downturn.
Among them, Germany, as one of the largest economies in Europe, bears the brunt, and the situation of negative growth has attracted widespread attention.
Even German media believe that the United States has indiscriminately hit currencies around the world in order to pass on the crisis. In this case, the so-called allies do not exist.
Even worse, Germany also wanted to learn how to decouple, but ended up being decoupled.
For example, this data can reflect the current difficulties in German exports. Porsche's global delivery volume experienced a rare year-on-year growth in the first three quarters of this year, seemingly emerging from the difficulties caused by the pandemic.
However, its contribution to the Chinese market decreased by 12% year-on-year, with only 16900 vehicles delivered in the third quarter.
With the continuous development of new energy vehicles in China, the German automotive industry is facing increasingly severe challenges.
Who on earth took off the hook?
02
From the direct perspective, the downturn of German economy is largely due to the shortage of energy supply caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
However, this conflict has been ongoing for over a year since its outbreak and has been delayed in resolving, precisely due to the continuous efforts of the United States behind it.
The Russia-Ukraine conflict triggered uncertainty in energy supply, especially the supply of natural gas.
As one of the largest natural gas consumers in Europe, Germany has a high degree of dependence on Russian natural gas. The rise in energy prices has had a direct impact on Germany's manufacturing industry, increasing production costs and inhibiting corporate investment and development.
At the same time, the instability of energy supply has also brought significant pressure to Germany's entire economic system.
Germany's manufacturing industry holds an important position globally, especially in the automotive and mechanical manufacturing industries. The shortage of energy supply has led to an increase in production costs, exacerbating the difficulties faced by the manufacturing industry.
In addition, energy shortages have also limited the growth potential of the German economy and hindered the development of other industries. This pressure is not limited to Germany, but affects the entire European economy.
At the same time, the United States is still desperately digging its way through the chip bill and inflation reduction bill, using huge subsidies to attract European, especially German, companies to the United States.
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The result of the US shifting the crisis has now been reflected in the German financial market.
Recently, with the continuous rise of US bond yield, the yield of Germany's 10-year treasury bond has also risen to more than 3%, which is the first time to exceed 3% in 12 years after 2011.
It can be said that the US debt led the decline of German treasury bond bonds.
Moreover, in terms of the real economy, Germany's PMI in September was only 39.6, which fell again compared to the previous month. Germany's manufacturing industry appears to be in dire straits.
This may be worth pondering from all walks of life in Germany, whether there are any standing teams or not?
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