As the new season approaches, American airlines have once again postponed the resumption of pre pandemic flights between China and the United States.
Recently, United Airlines and Delta Air Lines have submitted applications to the US Department of Transportation, hoping to allow them to continue delaying the resumption of multiple flights to China during the new season.
At present, the number of flights between China and the United States is not only much lower than before the epidemic, but the recovery speed is also much slower than that of Asian and European countries. However, the number of flights from some countries to China has exceeded that before the epidemic. The competitive landscape of international routes has undergone tremendous changes after the epidemic.
How is the resumption of China US air routes
At present, there are 9 airlines that can operate routes between China and the United States. The main American airlines are Delta Air Lines, United Airlines, and American Airlines, while the Chinese airlines include Air China, China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Xiamen Airlines, Sichuan Airlines, and Hainan Airlines.
According to the China US Air Services Agreement, Chinese and American airlines are required to implement an equal number of flight routes, and the opening and resumption of routes must be approved by the regulatory authorities of both countries.
In February of this year, the US Department of Transportation issued a notice allowing Chinese airlines to increase the number of round-trip flights between China and the United States from 35 flights per week to 50 flights per week. According to the principle of reciprocity, starting from March 31st, airlines from both China and the United States are allowed to operate a total of 100 scheduled passenger flights per week.
However, after six domestic airlines gradually flew 50 flights per week, American airlines have not fully utilized the quota for 50 flights until now. Only Delta Air Lines increased the number of flights from Shanghai to Detroit from three per week to one per day in May this year; United Airlines resumed four weekly direct flights from Shanghai to Los Angeles at the end of August.
At present, United Airlines mainly operates three routes between China and the United States: San Francisco to Beijing and Shanghai, and Los Angeles to Shanghai. Prior to the pandemic, United Airlines also operated multiple routes between China and the United States, including Chicago to Beijing and Shanghai, New York to Beijing and Shanghai, and Washington to Beijing.
Recently, the company has applied to the US Department of Transportation to postpone the resumption of the above-mentioned routes to China in the upcoming new season, and the already resumed San Francisco Shanghai route is also in the "dormant" category of the new season.
Delta Air Lines operates two daily flights from Shanghai to Detroit and Shanghai to Seattle. Before the epidemic, Delta had also flown from Shanghai to Atlanta, Beijing to Detroit, Shanghai to Los Angeles, and Beijing to Seattle. The company has also applied to the US Department of Transportation to postpone the resumption of the four US China routes to China during the new season.
Where is the difficulty in resuming flights
In their applications to the Department of Transportation, both US airlines attributed the delay in flight resumption to "ongoing market challenges".
The challenge first comes from the cost increase caused by flying around Russian airspace. Since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, European and American airlines have to bypass Russian airspace when implementing Asian routes, which has the greatest impact on the U.S. East Coast destinations. For example, the flight time between Beijing and New York is about one and a half hours longer than before.
The increase in flight time means an increase in fuel expenses, flight crew costs, and other expenses. If the flight volume returns to pre pandemic levels, it will be even more difficult to make money on the China US route based on the ticket prices at that time.
According to a reporter from First Financial News, in fact, there were signs of "shrinkage" in the China US air routes in 2018 before the epidemic. At that time, six consecutive US China routes were grounded, with the majority being American airlines.
Making money increasingly difficult is one of the reasons. American Airlines has stated that in the 8 years since its launch, the company has not earned a penny from the Beijing Chicago route, and the Chicago Shanghai route has not been profitable either.
Before the epidemic, there were 14 airlines competing on the China US route, and the ticket prices were not the lowest, only lower. For example, in June 2019, American airlines launched special tickets for the off-season at the end of the year, with round-trip ticket prices of 5 yuan, 6 yuan, 10 yuan excluding tax, and less than 2000 yuan including taxes.
Nowadays, the ticket prices for many China US routes remain around 10000 yuan, and even the Shanghai Los Angeles route, which has resumed the most flights, has ticket prices around 6000 yuan during the off-season.
Some industry insiders also analyzed to reporters that the current staffing of pilots and air traffic control personnel in US airlines has not been restored to pre pandemic levels. For US airlines, with limited human resources, choosing to operate more profitable European and American routes may be more profitable for them compared to increasing flights between China and the United States.
Some international routes have surpassed pre pandemic levels
According to the latest statistics from Flight Manager, there were 11745 international flights last week, a decrease of 23% compared to 2019, indicating a flight recovery rate of 77%. Among the top countries/regions, the number of flights from China to the Middle East, Malaysia, Singapore, and the United Kingdom has exceeded that of 2019, while flights between China and the United States have only recovered to 26.2% of 2019.
Among the destinations of international outbound flights, Southeast Asia accounted for the largest proportion, accounting for 39.4%, followed by East Asia 36.1%, and the number of flights from Chinese Mainland to Japan ranked first, with a recovery rate of 80.9%.
A number of industry insiders pointed out to reporters that since this year, China's international routes have undergone considerable structural changes. Among them, the proportion of passenger flights to the "the Belt and Road" countries, including the Middle East, has reached 73.8%, 4.4 percentage points higher than before the epidemic. The new routes of the three major airlines are also more to non-traditional markets, which is not unrelated to the impact of the reciprocal restrictions on navigation rights on traditional European and American routes and the strengthening of economic and trade exchanges between China and the "the Belt and Road" countries.
After the epidemic, Chinese airlines did indeed begin to fly intensively to the Middle East. For example, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines and Air China opened a direct flight route from China to Riyadh, Saudi Arabia in a month. Before the epidemic, only Saudi Airlines was the direct flight route from Chinese Mainland to Saudi Arabia.
In addition, Air China and China Eastern Airlines also opened new routes to Istanbul, Türkiye, after the epidemic, while China Southern Airlines and Xiamen Airlines opened new routes to Qatar. Before the epidemic, Hainan Airlines did not fly over Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates. In 2024, it also opened Haikou Abu Dhabi, a twice weekly flight.
"The intensive increase of routes in the Middle East by domestic airlines, on the one hand, reflects the further deepening of cooperation and closer exchanges between China and countries along the the Belt and Road, including the GCC countries; on the other hand, in the process of recovering international routes today, the excess wide body aircraft capacity can be more invested in routes in the Middle East under the relatively limited international market." Lin Zhijie, a civil aviation industry insider, analyzed the reporter, and on the other hand, through bilateral cooperation with airlines in the Middle East, we can further expand our international route network, and in the current situation of limited flights between China and the United States, we can help passengers to reach their destinations more easily through transit.
A domestic airline insider revealed to reporters that the Middle East, Australia, and other fiercely competitive regions are now struggling to make money. However, due to the insufficient capacity of foreign airlines, the situation on European and American routes is better than before the epidemic, and profits can still be guaranteed.
The Director of the Civil Aviation Administration mentioned in his semi annual report that in the second half of the year, it is necessary to continue to strengthen market development in emerging markets, especially in the "the Belt and Road" countries, improve the efficiency of the use of the existing third and fourth traffic rights, and encourage airlines to make good use of the fifth traffic rights.