On Thursday (October 12th) local time, the latest released year-on-year inflation rate in the United States for September did not slow down as expected, highlighting the difficulty of alleviating price pressure.
The specific data released by the US Department of Labor shows that the consumer price index (CPI) in the United States increased by 0.4% month on month after the September quarter adjustment, higher than the market's previous expectation of 0.3%. In August, the data increased by 0.6%;
This resulted in a year-on-year growth rate of 3.7% in the United States' non quarter adjusted CPI in September, consistent with August, which the market had originally expected to slow to 3.6%.
In terms of sub item data, food prices increased by 0.2% month on month and 3.7% year-on-year; Energy prices increased by 1.5% month on month and decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, with gasoline prices rising by 2.1% month on month and 3% year-on-year; Fuel prices increased by 8.5% month on month and decreased by 5.1% year-on-year.
Excluding unstable factors such as fuel and food, the core CPI increased by 0.3% month on month and 4.1% year-on-year, both in line with expectations. Among them, the year-on-year growth rate is the lowest since October 2021 and has been declining for six consecutive months.
Market analysis suggests that the slight increase in overall inflation rate indeed tests the current view that inflation is a one-way trend, but the key data is the core CPI data, which currently appears to be basically stable.
After the data was released, the US dollar index rose 35 points in the short term and broke through the 106 level; The Nasdaq 100 futures briefly erased the pre market gains.
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Recently, many investors are willing to overlook the recent rebound in overall inflation rate, as they believe it is driven by energy prices. However, last week's stronger than expected employment data sparked concerns that inflation may remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
Allianz Chief Advisor Elian added that from an analytical perspective, this reminds people to pay attention to the challenges facing the "last mile" of fighting inflation, especially when core service industry inflation remains high and people are worried that energy price increases will spread to core CPI.
The minutes of the meeting released by the Federal Reserve yesterday stated that the majority of participants believe it is appropriate to raise interest rates again at future meetings, while some members believe that there is no need for further interest rate hikes in the future.
Although all participants agreed that until the Federal Reserve is confident that inflation will continue to fall back to 2%, interest rates should be kept in a position to constrain the economy for a period of time. However, some officials have also pointed out that they are closely monitoring the changes in real interest rates, as policy interest rates remain unchanged as inflation falls, and the real interest rates themselves will gradually rise over time.