On the evening of the 10th local time in the United States, Tesla CEO Elon Musk showcased a two door autonomous taxi called Cybercab at an event in Los Angeles. Industry analysts point out that Musk is betting on shifting the focus from low-priced ordinary passenger cars to autonomous vehicles, hoping to make up for the losses caused by the decline in electric vehicle profits.
However, Wall Street investors expressed disappointment with Musk's "new toy" and believed that Tesla failed to demonstrate a specific business model and profit prospects. Within a few hours after the press conference, Tesla's stock price fell by about 6%, while Uber's stock price surged.
In addition, regulatory barriers, security issues and the strong development of competitors are all challenges faced by Tesla. Industry experts believe that Tesla's establishment of autonomous taxi services may take several years.
Appearing
Tesla's "We, Robots" launch event was held in Los Angeles on the 10th local time. At the beginning of the press conference, Musk made his debut aboard the newly launched CyberCab.
This two seater car features a gull wing door design, without a steering wheel or pedals. The car relies on Tesla's fully autonomous driving (FSD) software, but the safety of this software is considered controversial.
Musk introduced that the cost of this taxi will be less than $30000, and operating the taxi will cost 20 cents per mile. Charging will be inductive and do not require a plug.
He said that these vehicles will rely on artificial intelligence and cameras, rather than common hardware from competitors such as LiDAR.
It is expected that this taxi will be put into operation in 2026. By 2027, Tesla will produce this vehicle at a very high volume.
Musk did not mention the profit model of taxis during the press conference.
Industry analysts predict that customers may be able to call CyberCab through the application, just like calling Uber. Tesla owners can also register their private cars as autonomous taxis and earn money through the application.
It is speculated that Musk may take a cut from the fare to alleviate the pressure faced by the company due to the decline in Tesla car sales.
Previously, the billionaire described Tesla based autonomous taxi services as "some kind of combination of Airbnb and Uber".
He also said that the current cost of purchasing a car is too high, with ordinary passenger cars only being used for about 10 hours per week. If it were to be replaced by autonomous taxis, the efficiency of vehicle use would greatly increase, and the cost of transportation would also drop to the price of urban public transportation.
Disappointed
Although Musk's press conference was full of gimmicks, it lacked detailed displays in terms of the car's business model and profit prospects, and many people expressed disappointment.
An analyst from Barclays Bank stated that Musk seems to be replacing a well-known, profitable brand with an experimental, money burning brand, and there is no real roadmap for success yet.
For example, they did not discuss when autonomous taxis would be launched, nor did they discuss how long it would take for Tesla to establish a service to compete with Alphabet's (Google's parent company) autonomous taxi company Waymo and others. Waymo has always been far ahead of Tesla in the field of autonomous driving.
Industry analysis reports indicate that Waymo's autonomous taxis are already on the roads in Los Angeles, Phoenix, and San Francisco. But the company incurred a loss of $2 billion in the first half of this year, and it was still operating at the lowest possible cost. The huge electricity and computing costs of operating a group of autonomous vehicles will reach billions of dollars. Even for large companies like Tesla, it is quite difficult to lower costs.
In addition, insurance companies are also trying to figure out how expensive compensation they will bear for potential accidents. In the United States, replacing traditional windshields costs several hundred dollars, but compensating for a sensor equipped accessory can be many times more expensive. This will have an impact on the company's operations and solvency.
Can the cost of taking a taxi really make up for the decline in Tesla's car sales? Does anyone allow private luxury cars to be used as taxis by strangers and bear the cost of any mistakes? Musk has never truly addressed these concerns, "commented a business magazine in the United States.
Obstacles
Regulatory barriers and security issues are also obstacles that CyberCab needs to overcome on the road.
Tesla's fully autonomous driving (FSD) software still has less than ideal safety takeover rate data. The safety takeover rate refers to the frequency of manual intervention during the operation of the auto drive system, which reflects the stability and reliability of the auto drive system in actual use.
CyberCab also does not rely on industry standard technologies such as LiDAR, which is a challenge from both a technical and regulatory perspective. Some analysts say that only Tesla in the United States believes that without LiDAR, it can work, which is completely opposite to the top competitors in the entire industry.
Although Musk said at the press conference on the 10th that the safety of autonomous vehicle is 10 times that of manual driving, and the driving time is 5 to 10 times that of manual driving. But industry experts say that autonomous driving technology faces difficulties in dealing with harsh weather, complex intersections, and pedestrian behavior.
A study in the journal Nature shows that autonomous vehicle are more prone to accidents than manual driving at dawn, dusk or when turning - in other words, in rush hours and on streets with more pedestrians.
Morgan Stanley wrote in the report that Musk's cool self driving taxi launch event was disappointing in many aspects, such as the lack of change rate data for FSD/technology and listing strategy.
Piper Sandler wrote in a report, "If Tesla's stock experiences a sell-off in the coming weeks, we wouldn't be surprised because the momentum of the press conference has faded