The chip industry chain is experiencing significant positive data.
On July 1st, the latest disclosed data showed that in June this year, South Korea's semiconductor exports reached $13.4 billion (approximately RMB 97.3 billion), a significant increase of 50.9% year-on-year, the largest export figure on record. Analysts believe that this data is undoubtedly good news for the global semiconductor industry chain, indicating that the semiconductor recovery momentum is still ongoing and exceeds market expectations.
Another signal of chip recovery beyond expectations comes from industry chain leaders. South Korean giant SK Group announced that its semiconductor subsidiary SK Hynix plans to invest KRW 103 trillion (approximately RMB 540 billion) by 2028, highlighting the group's bet on the semiconductor industry. In addition to SK Hynix, global storage chip giants such as Micron Technology and Samsung have also expanded production on a large scale.
Institutional analysis shows that with the high demand for AI chips, the shortage of HBM (high bandwidth memory chips) will continue for a long time. In addition to the three major overseas storage giants benefiting from the simultaneous increase in demand and increasing capital expenditures, domestic enterprises with cost and industry chain advantages will also accelerate their involvement in more HBM production processes.
Positive news from chips
South Korea, known as the "canary" of the global economy, has received positive news.
On July 1st, preliminary data from the General Administration of Customs of South Korea showed that in June of this year, South Korean exports increased by 5.1% year-on-year to $57.07 billion, driven by record breaking performance in semiconductor exports, while imports decreased by 7.5% to $49.07 billion during the same period.
Data shows that South Korea's trade surplus in June reached $7.999 billion (approximately RMB 58.1 billion), the largest surplus since September 2020, exceeding market expectations of $5.7 billion.
From a destination perspective, exports to the United States increased by 14.7% to reach $11 billion, the highest in history for the same month. Exports to China also increased by 1.8% year-on-year, reaching 10.7 billion US dollars, maintaining growth for four consecutive months.
This is mainly due to the increase in demand for chips. The latest released data shows that South Korea's semiconductor exports in June reached $13.4 billion (approximately RMB 97.3 billion), a significant increase of 50.9% year-on-year. This is the largest export figure on record and the eighth consecutive month of year-on-year growth.
Analysts believe that this data is undoubtedly good news for the global semiconductor industry chain, indicating that the semiconductor recovery momentum is still ongoing and exceeds market expectations.
American chip giants such as Nvidia are aggressively increasing orders, which is good news for Korean chip giants such as Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.
IBK Securities economist Jeong Yong taek said that South Korea's overseas shipments will continue to expand in the second half of the year, as the global boom around artificial intelligence will continue to support demand for Korean chips, especially as companies such as Nvidia and Apple launch new products.
South Korean manufacturing continues to expand. On July 1st, S&P Global announced that the final value of South Korea's manufacturing PMI for June was 52, higher than last month's 51.6 and the highest level since April 2022.
As is well known, South Korean exports, as an important indicator to measure the global economy, are forward-looking and even known as the "canary" of the global economy. The positive export data from South Korea may be a significant positive signal for the global economy.
S& Joe Hayes, Chief Economist of P Global Market Intelligence, stated that global industrial activity and trade are rebounding. Due to its integration into the supply chain of key intermediate products such as batteries and semiconductors, South Korea's manufacturing output and orders are seen as the leader in exports.
An analysis suggests that the sustained weakness of the Korean won exchange rate is also one of the reasons supporting the strength of South Korean exports. Since the beginning of this year, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the Korean won has shown an overall upward trend and recently reached a high of 1378.93 Korean won.
Crazy investment of 540 billion yuan
Another signal of the unexpected recovery of chips comes from the latest actions of industry chain leaders.
On June 30th local time, South Korean giant SK Group announced that its semiconductor subsidiary SK Hynix Inc. plans to invest KRW 103 trillion (approximately RMB 540 billion) by 2028, highlighting the group's bet on the semiconductor industry.
The company believes that the semiconductor industry is crucial for the future development of its business.
SK Group stated in its latest statement that 82 trillion Korean won will be used to invest in HBM. SK Hynix's HBM chip has been optimized and can be used in conjunction with Nvidia's artificial intelligence accelerator. As part of the bet on artificial intelligence, SK Telecom and SK Broadband will invest KRW 3.4 trillion in their data center business.
According to the statement, SK Group suffered a loss of 10 trillion Korean won last year and is expected to achieve a pre tax profit of 22 trillion Korean won this year. Its goal is to increase its pre tax profit to 40 trillion Korean won by 2026.
It is worth noting that SK Hynix has announced a series of investment plans this year, including investing $3.87 billion to build an advanced packaging factory and an artificial intelligence product research center in Indiana; In South Korea, SK Hynix will also invest $14.6 billion to build a new storage chip complex and continue to make other domestic investments, including in the Longren Semiconductor Cluster.
In addition to SK Hynix, global storage chip giants such as Micron Technology and Samsung have also expanded production on a large scale.
Currently, Micron Technology is building an HBM production line in the United States and is considering for the first time producing HBM in Malaysia and building a new DRAM plant in Japan. The goal is to increase the company's HBM market share by more than twice to around 20% by 2025.
Samsung also expects HBM production capacity to increase by 2.9 times from last year this year. In terms of technological iteration, SK Hynix and Samsung have both completed the verification of HBM memory technology using 16 layers of hybrid bonding, which will be used for mass production of HBM4 in the future.
It is reported that HBM is the highest proportion of AI chips, with Nvidia H100 costing nearly $3000, of which HBM costs around $2000, significantly exceeding the manufacturing and packaging processes. Nvidia announced that it will compress its AI chip update cycle from two years to one year. This means that suppliers need to accelerate production expansion, and the current HBM production capacity of the storage factory in 2025 has been fully booked, with order visibility even reaching the first quarter of 2026.
According to analysis by Everbright Securities, despite the high demand for AI chips, the shortage of HBM production will continue for a long time. In addition to the three major overseas storage giants benefiting from the simultaneous increase in demand and increasing capital expenditures, domestic enterprises with cost and industry chain advantages will also accelerate their involvement in more HBM production processes. It is recommended to focus on the benefits of domestic enterprises with strong supply capabilities in key areas such as testing, equipment, and materials.