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The United States has released an "exciting" data, with a significant increase in GDP!
According to data from the Ministry of Commerce, the GDP growth rate of the United States in the third quarter of this year was as high as 4.9%.
However, investors have gradually become accustomed to the constant reversal of various news, such as after the release of this data, the US stock market actually fell significantly, with the three major indices falling simultaneously, and even the S&P 500 index falling by 1.2%.
In addition, Yellen's statement is also confusing, as she believes that if the GDP in 2023 could reach 2.5%, it would already be very good.
So what is the hidden mystery behind the official GDP growth rate of 4.9% announced by the United States?
01
On Thursday evening Beijing time, before the opening of the US stock market, the US Department of Commerce released the latest GDP data.
According to the practice of the United States, the GDP data will be released three times. At present, the initial value will be released, and then the revised value will be released after one adjustment. The final value will be released after the final adjustment for the third time.
This is one of the mysteries: previous experience has shown that the final value is often much lower than the initial value.
However, in the third quarter of this year, the initial GDP growth rate of the United States reached 4.9%, which is much higher than the second quarter, when it was only 2.1%.
At the same time, this data indicates that the United States has not slowed down its growth or fallen into recession, but rather, its super strong growth rate seems to indicate that the United States has successfully emerged from the recession.
After the news was announced, the yields of some US treasury bond bonds fell, indicating that the selling of US bonds was relatively reduced and the prices rebounded.
But there is not much good news, as by the end of the day, the stock market had experienced a complete decline, and it seems that investors are not optimistic about this data.
There are several reasons for this. Firstly, this is only the initial value, and after two adjustments, the final value may be much lower than the currently announced value.
Secondly, this seems to mean that the Federal Reserve will continue to maintain a tough stance.
At present, the Federal Reserve will not make a decision to raise interest rates next week, but it does not mean that it will stop raising interest rates.
A former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve stated that inflation is still very stubborn, and the Federal Reserve may have to continue raising interest rates.
Moreover, international investment banks have also analyzed that the US economy will experience a significant decline in the fourth quarter, and it is not ruled out that the GDP announcement for the next quarter will be negative.
It is clearly too early to discuss whether the US economy can achieve a soft landing or emerge from recession.
02
Just as China's GDP increased by 4.9% in the third quarter, does it mean that the growth rate of the United States has already caught up with us?
We need to note that this is very different from the year-on-year growth rate of GDP we usually encounter, and this data in the United States is an annualized value of the month on month growth rate.
This is another big mystery.
Normally, when we calculate the GDP growth rate, it is compared to the same period in the previous year, which is the year-on-year growth rate. However, when calculating GDP in the United States, it is customary to compare it with the previous cycle, such as this quarter compared to the previous quarter, which is the month on month growth rate.
And then this month on month growth rate needs to be annualized, in simple terms, equivalent to multiplying by 4.
So what is the year-on-year growth rate of US GDP in the third quarter?
Only 2.9%.
Although it is not low compared to the United States itself, it is the highest value in the past six quarters.
But compared to China's GDP growth of 4.9% year-on-year in the third quarter, it is far behind.
On this point, US Treasury Secretary Yellen expressed a completely opposite attitude.
She welcomed the latest GDP data and believed that if it could reach 2.5% by 2023, it would not be surprising. The implied goal of reaching 2.5% was already very fortunate.
Perhaps Yellen is more concerned about whether US bonds can still be issued, after all, the current situation of restructuring is getting worse, and how much GDP inflation is not very helpful for US bonds.
This is the real dilemma facing American finance.
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