Worries about the dominance of the "seven giants" in the US stock market? Goldman Sachs looks back on its century long history: high concentration is actually a good thing
六月清晨搅
发表于 2024-3-11 14:42:54
215
0
0
Since October last year, the US stock market has been on a continuous upward trend for over four months, and has repeatedly hit new historical highs since the beginning of this year. However, what market investors cannot ignore is that this round of US stock price rise is driven by the concentration of technology giants led by Nvidia, Microsoft, and other seven giants.
It is easy to recall the history of the Internet foam at the beginning of 2000 when technology stocks were highly concentrated to drive the index up. However, Goldman Sachs concluded through its analysis of the history of the US stock market over the past century that there is no need to worry.
According to Goldman Sachs data, looking back at the past 100 years, the S&P 500 index is likely to continue to rise within a year after reaching its peak in market concentration.
Market concentration has reached its highest level in decades
Observers point out that currently, the concentration of the US stock market appears to have reached its peak: the top 10 stocks account for 33% of the market value of the S&P 500 index and 25% of its returns, with market concentration reaching its highest level in decades.
Goldman Sachs stock strategist Ben Snider's team wrote in a report, "Although investors typically see an increase in concentration as a signal of downside risk, in the past, the S&P 500 index often saw more gains than declines in the 12 months after market concentration reached its peak."
This is because during each period of high market concentration in the past, when market leaders began to lose momentum (i.e. stock market concentration began to decline), the originally laggards in the market often rose, driving the index to continue rising.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that in the past 100 years, there have been 7 instances of high market concentration in the US stock market. In five of these seven events (including the year after the crash in 2008 and the year after the recession of COVID-19), US stocks continued to rise after market concentration peaked.
Not necessarily a replay of the Internet foam
It is hard to ignore that the only exception to the seven highly concentrated market events pointed out by Goldman Sachs is the "Beautiful 50" foam in 1973 and the Internet foam in 2000. In these two situations, the market entered a long-term bear market after the concentration reached its peak.
Today's market has sparked many comparisons with those two eras. The vast majority of the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 index are technology stocks among the seven giants, including Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia. As the technology craze has brought investors a huge network foam, some experts have compared the rise of Nvidia with that of Cisco in 1999.
But Snyder said that among the seven highly concentrated markets in the past century, other scenarios that ultimately did not collapse actually have similarities with the current situation.
He said, "Although investors are concerned about the comparison between the current stock market and the stock markets of 1973 and 2000, there are several other examples of extreme concentration in the stock market over the past century."
A typical example is in 1964, when the macroeconomic background in the United States was similar to today, but after market concentration reached its peak, the market continued to rise.
&Amp; Quota; Like in 1973 and 2000, the concentration of the stock market reached its peak in 1964, while the unemployment rate was low and the stock market background was strong; Quota; Schneider said, "But after market concentration reached its peak in 1964, stock prices and the US economy remained healthy for a long time."
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- Goldman Sachs will receive high compensation from the $36 billion sale of Kellogg's
- Official announcement! OpenAI raises $6.6 billion in funding, latest valuation exceeds Goldman Sachs' total market value
- Goldman Sachs' net revenue for the third quarter was $12.7 billion
- Bank of America Global Research will raise Goldman Sachs' target price from $563 to $575
- Apple Card project has vulnerabilities! Goldman Sachs and Apple fined nearly $90 million
- Goldman Sachs uses four charts to prove: US stocks will welcome a 'lost decade'!
- Goldman Sachs opens new office in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
- Goldman Sachs: Increase Meituan's target price to HKD 212, raise Pinduoduo's target price to USD 172
- Goldman Sachs: Maintain Alibaba's' buy 'rating target price at HKD 131
- Goldman Sachs: Increases Bilibili's target price to HKD 180
-
知名做空机构香橼研究(Citron Research)周四(11月21日)在社交媒体平台X上发布消息称,该公司已决定做空“比特币大户”微策略(Microstrategy)这家公司,并认为该公司已经将自己变身成为一家比特币投资基金 ...
- caffycat
- 昨天 11:18
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
每经AI快讯,11月20日,文远知行宣布旗下自动驾驶环卫车S6与无人扫路机S1分别在新加坡滨海湾海岸大道与滨海艺术中心正式投入运营。据介绍,这是新加坡首个商业化运营的自动驾驶环卫项目。 ...
- star8699
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
上证报中国证券网讯(记者王子霖)11月20日,斗鱼发布2024年第三季度未经审计的财务报告。本季度斗鱼依托丰富的游戏内容生态,充分发挥主播资源和新业务潜力,持续为用户提供高质量的直播内容及游戏服务,进一步 ...
- goodfriendboy
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
人民网北京11月22日电 (记者栗翘楚、任妍)2024广州车展,在新能源汽车占据“半壁江山”的同时,正加速向智能网联新能源汽车全面过渡,随着“端到端”成为新宠,智能驾驶解决方案成为本届广州车展各大车企竞 ...
- 3233340
- 昨天 17:06
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏