首页 News 正文

Amidst the surge of Bitcoin, Xiaomo warns that the "halving" trend may cool down and lead to a pullback of over 30%

美少女994
1324 0 0

Bitcoin has been on a strong rise recently: it has risen by about 45% so far this year, and even surpassed $64000 on Thursday, approaching its previous high of $69000 on November 8, 2021.
In addition to the surge in demand brought about by the Bitcoin ETF approved by the US Securities and Exchange Commission in January this year, halving is also one of the reasons driving the rise of Bitcoin: in April of this year, the once every four years halving of Bitcoin is approaching. In history, halving often led to an upward trend in Bitcoin, as this event theoretically led to a shortage of Bitcoin supply.
However, JPMorgan analysts predict that after this year's halving, the Bitcoin mining industry is expected to further integrate, resulting in a decrease of about 20% in the computing power of the Bitcoin network. This may ultimately lower the price of Bitcoin.
After halving, Bitcoin mining costs increase
From a historical perspective, the price of Bitcoin has risen every time it is halved, as halving increases the production costs of miners, which is often considered the lower limit of Bitcoin prices.
The strategist at JPMorgan Chase stated that the average production cost of Bitcoin is currently $26500, and theoretically, after "halving", the production cost will "mechanically double" to $53000.
Xiaomo analysts believe that as mining difficulty increases, small miners are expected to be forced to stop operations. For the remaining miners, this will make the mining difficulty possibly 20% lower than initially estimated, thereby reducing production costs.
Small Mo strategists wrote in their report that due to the lower support level of Bitcoin, investors may see Bitcoin prices fall back to $42000 after the "halving" in April, which means a drop of over 30% compared to the current Bitcoin price (around $62000).
Xiao Mo's imagined scenario may not come true either?
The prediction of Xiaomo Strategist is based on two key assumptions:
Firstly, after halving, the estimated average electricity cost for miners is 5 cents per kilowatt hour, which may vary depending on location and scale. Secondly, as Bitcoin mining becomes more energy intensive after being halved, some inefficient and financially strapped private miners will exit the market because their production costs exceed market prices, which will result in a decrease of approximately 20% in the hash rate (which measures the industry's mining capacity).
"This 20% decline will bring computing power closer to historical trends," strategists wrote, "effectively reducing the central point of our estimated production cost range to $42000. This $42000 estimate is also what we envisioned, and once the optimism sparked by Bitcoin's' halving 'subsides after April, Bitcoin prices will move towards the level they were expected to."
However, if the price of Bitcoin remains high, a decrease in hash values may not become a reality. As more and more people purchase Bitcoin through new spot Bitcoin ETFs, the rise in Bitcoin prices may allow smaller miners to maintain profitability even after "halving" in April, so the scenario envisioned by JPMorgan Chase will not be realized.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

本版积分规则

  •   苹果知名分析师郭明錤周四(10月31日)在社交媒体上发文表示,苹果明年可能会减少对芯片制造商博通Wi-Fi芯片的依赖,并推出自己的处理器。   郭明錤在社交媒体平台X上写道,“在2025年下半年的新产品(例如iPh ...
    uturn
    昨天 14:42
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
  •   10月30日,小鹏汽车生态企业小鹏汇天宣布,旗下分体式飞行汽车“陆地航母”即将亮相2024中国航展,11月12日将在中国航展第二展区(斗门莲洲)进行全球首次公开飞行,同时“陆地航母”也将在珠海国际航展中心8号 ...
    yxtianyouyou
    前天 11:43
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
  •   交易所监管文件显示,当地时间11月1日,亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝索斯拟出售约1635万股亚马逊股票,预计套现约30.5亿美元。今年7月,贝索斯已申请额外出售约2500万股亚马逊股票,按当时股价计算可套现约50亿美元。 ...
    blueskybb
    12 小时前
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
  •   近日,凯撒海湾目的地(山东)运营管理有限责任公司(简称“凯撒海湾”)与携程旅悦集团签署战略合作协议,双方将围绕“海上目的地运营”、“旅游产品与服务创新”、“研学旅行”、“日韩及海外旅游市场开拓”等 ...
    llyyy2008
    11 小时前
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
美少女994 新手上路
  • 粉丝

    0

  • 关注

    0

  • 主题

    1