首页 News 正文

Is it not that difficult to fight inflation in the last mile? FED research: Excessive tightening can easily lead to errors!

安全到达彼岸依
1334 0 0

Starting from the spring of 2021, the inflation rate in the United States skyrocketed, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reached a 40 year high of 9% in mid-2022. With the improvement of supply chain conditions, by the end of 2023, the Federal Reserve's tightening policy has reduced inflation rates to within 1-2 percentage points of the 2% target, while unemployment rates have not significantly increased.
However, people are concerned that the "last mile" of continuously lowering inflation to the 2% target will be even more difficult than the journey ahead. But a recent study by the Atlanta Federal Reserve suggests that this is not the case.
The bank pointed out that as the last mile may not be more difficult than elsewhere, it is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will need to make extraordinary efforts to further tighten policy as inflation approaches its target. Excessive tightening of policies will unnecessarily increase the risk of a hard landing.
In a paper published on Tuesday, economist David Rapach of the bank wrote, "It is difficult to conclude that the last mile of fighting inflation is more difficult than the rest. In terms of policy, this means that the Federal Reserve does not need to consider the final stage to be substantially different from the other stages."
The median quarterly economic forecast of Federal Reserve officials shows that they expect to cut interest rates three times in 2024 as inflation decreases last year. Nevertheless, policymakers have dispelled market expectations that they will start cutting interest rates as early as the March meeting.
Earlier on Tuesday, Federal Reserve Director Waller said that if inflation does not rebound, the Federal Reserve will be able to lower interest rates this year. He believes that when that moment arrives, policymakers should be cautious and orderly.
Rapach concluded that being overly concerned about the "last mile" of this battle could lead to policy errors.
He wrote, "From a risk management perspective, it is believed that the last mile will be even more difficult, which may lead to the Federal Reserve tightening its policies excessively, increasing the likelihood of economic recession and a sharp rise in unemployment rates."
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

本版积分规则

  •   知名做空机构香橼研究(Citron Research)周四(11月21日)在社交媒体平台X上发布消息称,该公司已决定做空“比特币大户”微策略(Microstrategy)这家公司,并认为该公司已经将自己变身成为一家比特币投资基金 ...
    caffycat
    昨天 11:18
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
  •   每经AI快讯,11月20日,文远知行宣布旗下自动驾驶环卫车S6与无人扫路机S1分别在新加坡滨海湾海岸大道与滨海艺术中心正式投入运营。据介绍,这是新加坡首个商业化运营的自动驾驶环卫项目。 ...
    star8699
    3 天前
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
  •   上证报中国证券网讯(记者王子霖)11月20日,斗鱼发布2024年第三季度未经审计的财务报告。本季度斗鱼依托丰富的游戏内容生态,充分发挥主播资源和新业务潜力,持续为用户提供高质量的直播内容及游戏服务,进一步 ...
    goodfriendboy
    3 天前
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
  •   人民网北京11月22日电 (记者栗翘楚、任妍)2024广州车展,在新能源汽车占据“半壁江山”的同时,正加速向智能网联新能源汽车全面过渡,随着“端到端”成为新宠,智能驾驶解决方案成为本届广州车展各大车企竞 ...
    3233340
    昨天 17:06
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
安全到达彼岸依 新手上路
  • 粉丝

    0

  • 关注

    0

  • 主题

    1