Wall Street's "surge" is heard everywhere: Most people expect the US stock market to hit a new high next year
六月清晨搅
发表于 2023-12-11 18:48:06
219
0
0
Last year, due to ongoing concerns about the US economy, Wall Street was gloomy about the outlook for US stocks, but unexpectedly, US stocks achieved a significant rise this year; At the end of this year, Wall Street's optimism towards the US stock market once again reached an absolute peak, which raises concerns: is Wall Street overly optimistic this time?
According to a survey of 518 respondents on Wall Street conducted by Markets Live Pulse (MLIV Pulse), most people on Wall Street expect the United States to avoid a recession next year and the S&P 500 index to reach a new high.
Most people expect the US stock market to hit a new high next year
A survey shows that the median expected target price for the S&P 500 index by the end of next year among 518 respondents is 4808 points, which means it will break the all-time high closing record of 4797 points set in January last year. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield is expected to drop from this year's high of 5% to 3.8%.
More than two-thirds of the respondents are not worried about a hard landing in the United States next year, as the economic situation was once the top risk threatening the US stock market; Meanwhile, the vast majority of people expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates before July next year.
"American exceptionalism is still deeply ingrained," said Aneeka Gupta, head of macroeconomic research at WisdomTree. The main driving factor for the US stock market is that compared to Asia and Europe, the US economic background is more favorable, profit expectations are increasing, and the valuation of the S&P 500 index has also decreased.
The current optimistic atmosphere on Wall Street is in stark contrast to the widespread pessimism at the beginning of this year. Several investment banks, including Deutsche Bank and Royal Bank of Canada, are predicting that the S&P 500 index will hit a new high next year. Although there are also relatively pessimists like JPMorgan Chase who worry that the US stock market will fall next year, bears are clearly in the minority on Wall Street.
Still wary of potential risks
However, the median forecast for this survey -4808 points - is also worth careful consideration: although this point represents a historic high, it also means that the current level of the S&P 500 index (4604 points) is only a 4% increase - a much smaller increase than the average 19% increase of the S&P 500 in previous years.
This may mean that while Wall Street is generally optimistic, it also sees the existence of risks.
"We believe there is some tension between potential interest rate cuts and the stock market," said Richard Flax, Chief Investment Officer of European digital wealth management company Moneyfarm. "We currently lean towards a scenario where economic growth slows down and some companies' profits are lowered, which makes us relatively cautious about next year's stock market."
The rise of the "Seven Giants" may come to an end?
Goldman Sachs strategists suggest that the ideal approach at present is to maintain investment in stocks and avoid selling them during periods of volatility. The majority of MLIV respondents also plan to follow this suggestion, with 26% stating that they will increase their holdings in US stocks next month, which is higher than the average level of the survey.
43% of respondents stated that US stocks will continue to outperform global stock markets in 2024- and this expectation is not surprising from historical records, as the S&P 500 has outperformed global stock markets for 8 out of the past 10 years.
However, the trend of different sectors in the US stock market may change next year. In 2023, the trend of the S&P 500 index will be more dominated by the so-called "Big Seven" (NVIDIA, Apple, Tesla, Google, etc.), and many respondents plan to shift their attention from the "Big Seven" to small cap and value stocks next year in order to seek more returns.
"We believe that the upward trend of the seven giants will not last for a long time," M& Shanti Kelemen, Chief Investment Officer of G Wealth, said, "The valuations of other sectors in the US stock market are more attractive. As many companies in traditional industries gradually introduce AI, productivity is expected to increase."
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- Trump's inauguration accelerates the bull market in the US stock market! Wall Street investment bank: Looking at 6600 points on the S&P 500 next year
- Latest consensus on Wall Street: In the Trump 2.0 era, the Federal Reserve may slow down its pace of interest rate cuts
- How will 'Trump 2.0' affect Nvidia? Wall Street consensus: More is good!
- Latest consensus on Wall Street: In the Trump 2.0 era, the Federal Reserve may slow down its pace of interest rate cuts
- 6500 points! Wall Street's' former big bears' firmly bullish on US stocks and provide these investment recommendations
- Will Trump 2.0 lead to a rise in the US stock market? Wall Street analysts warn: macro environment vastly different from eight years ago
- Wall Street is optimistic about Trump's tax cuts: nearly 30% of S&P 500 companies in the US stock market will benefit in the next two years
- Wall Street is bursting with optimism! BMO: S&P 500 is expected to reach 6700 points by the end of next year
- Wall Street investment banks worry that they won't be able to lower interest rates next year, but the Federal Reserve doesn't seem to see it that way
- Wall Street raises Nvidia target price one after another: Blackwell craze is coming!
-
知名做空机构香橼研究(Citron Research)周四(11月21日)在社交媒体平台X上发布消息称,该公司已决定做空“比特币大户”微策略(Microstrategy)这家公司,并认为该公司已经将自己变身成为一家比特币投资基金 ...
- caffycat
- 昨天 11:18
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
每经AI快讯,11月20日,文远知行宣布旗下自动驾驶环卫车S6与无人扫路机S1分别在新加坡滨海湾海岸大道与滨海艺术中心正式投入运营。据介绍,这是新加坡首个商业化运营的自动驾驶环卫项目。 ...
- star8699
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
上证报中国证券网讯(记者王子霖)11月20日,斗鱼发布2024年第三季度未经审计的财务报告。本季度斗鱼依托丰富的游戏内容生态,充分发挥主播资源和新业务潜力,持续为用户提供高质量的直播内容及游戏服务,进一步 ...
- goodfriendboy
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
人民网北京11月22日电 (记者栗翘楚、任妍)2024广州车展,在新能源汽车占据“半壁江山”的同时,正加速向智能网联新能源汽车全面过渡,随着“端到端”成为新宠,智能驾驶解决方案成为本届广州车展各大车企竞 ...
- 3233340
- 昨天 17:06
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏