This week, the three major US stock indexes achieved four consecutive weekly gains, all expected to achieve their best monthly performance in over a year.
Compared to the downturn from July to October, the US stock market has seen a surge this month, mainly due to investors' optimistic belief that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates again and may even start cutting rates in the first half of next year.
The reason for the market's judgment is the continuous decline in inflation levels, with the year-on-year growth rate of the US CPI in October dropping to 3.2%, and the core CPI (excluding volatile factors such as food and energy) rising by 4.0% year-on-year in October.
However, compared to CPI data, the Federal Reserve prefers the core PCE price index, which has important reference significance for decision-makers. The US October PCE data will be released next Thursday.
The revised GDP for the third quarter of the United States will be released next Wednesday. Previously released data showed that the quarterly adjusted annualized rate of GDP for the third quarter of the United States was 4.9%, a new high since the fourth quarter of 2021. In addition, the Federal Reserve's economic status brown book will be released next Thursday.
Due to objections from African oil producing countries regarding quotas, the OPEC+meeting originally scheduled for this weekend has been postponed to November 30th (next Thursday) and changed to online format. The latest news is that OPEC+and African oil producing countries are reaching a compromise on approaching production levels in 2024.
Another important event next week is COP28 (the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference), which will be held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates from November 30th to December 12th. More than 140 heads of state and senior government officials are expected to attend. This conference will conduct the first global inventory of the implementation of the Paris Agreement.
Renowned energy journalist Javier Blas revealed that according to the expected data he received, the number of people attending Dubai COP28 next week will exceed 70000, almost double the number of the previous two years.
The Q3 financial reporting season for US stocks is nearing its end, and next week's financial reports will be relatively light. Chinese concept stocks such as Pinduoduo and Bilibili are worth paying attention to.
(Next week's financial report highlights)
Overview of important economic events next week (Beijing time):
Monday (November 27th): UK November CBI retail sales difference, US October annualized total new home sales, US November Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index
Tuesday (November 28th): German December Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, UK November Nationwide House Price Index Monthly Rate, US September FHFA House Price Index Monthly Rate, US September S& P/CS: Annual rate of housing prices in 20 major cities, November Consumer Confidence Index of the US Chamber of Commerce, November Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index of the US
Wednesday (November 29th): Australia's October unadjusted CPI annual rate, New Zealand Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, Eurozone November Economic Prosperity Index, Germany's November CPI data, US Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly rate correction value
Thursday (November 30th): China's official manufacturing PMI for November, China's comprehensive PMI for November, China's non manufacturing PMI for November, Eurozone November CPI data, US October PCE data, Federal Reserve's brown book on economic conditions, 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP28) held in Dubai, OPEC+Ministerial Meeting
Friday (December 1st): China's November Caixin Manufacturing PMI, Eurozone/Germany/France November Manufacturing PMI final value, UK November Manufacturing PMI, US November Markit Manufacturing PMI final value, US November ISM Manufacturing PMI
