On the 15th local time, the three major US stock indices rose slightly, while the Dow rose for the fourth consecutive trading day. As of the close, the Dow rose 0.47%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.16%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.07%.
In terms of economic data, the US October PPI recorded its largest decline since April 2020, further confirming the easing of inflationary pressure. Retail sales in the United States decreased slightly in October, ending six consecutive months of growth and strengthening interest rate hikes to meet expectations.
On the market, popular Chinese concept stocks rose generally, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 2.87%. Among them, Tencent Music rose by nearly 8%, JD.com rose by over 7%, Vipshop rose by over 6%, Shell rose by nearly 6%, iQiyi and Weibo rose by over 5%, NIO rose by nearly 5%, and Alibaba rose by nearly 4%.
Microsoft's stock price has reached a new historical high. At the Microsoft Ignite Global Technology Conference held on Wednesday local time, Microsoft announced the launch of two high-end customized chips, one of which is its first self-developed artificial intelligence chip, the Maia 100.
US stocks closed slightly higher, while the Dow rose for four consecutive times
On the 15th local time, the three major US stock indexes rose slightly, while the Dow rose for the fourth consecutive trading day, breaking through the 35000 point mark at one point. As of the close, the Dow rose 0.47% to 34991.21 points; The S&P 500 index rose 0.16% to 4502.88 points; The Nasdaq rose 0.07% to 14103.84 points.
In terms of economic data, according to the US Department of Commerce, the US PPI in October increased by 1.3% year-on-year, with an estimated 1.9%, compared to the previous value of 2.2%; The US PPI in October decreased by 0.5% month on month, with an estimated 0.1%, compared to the previous value of 0.5%. This data shows that the producer price index in the United States unexpectedly experienced its largest decline since April 2020 in October, further proving that inflationary pressure in the entire economy is weakening. Compared to a year ago, the overall indicator has increased by 1.3%, while the annual increase in core indicators is the smallest since the beginning of 2021.
In October, US retail sales decreased by 0.1% month on month, ending six consecutive months of growth. The market generally believes that retail sales decreased by 0.3%, but it is lower than the previous value of 0.7%, setting a new low since March this year; The core retail sales data excluding car sales stores increased by 0.1% month on month, and expectations remain unchanged. From the breakdown data, furniture stores (-2%), grocery store retailers (-1.7%), and car dealerships (-1%) saw the highest decline in sales compared to the previous month. The decline in oil prices has also led to a continued decline in sales at gas stations. Health and personal care (+1%), food and beverage (+0.6%), and electrical appliances (+0.6%) stores led the month on month growth.
Analysis suggests that after several consecutive months of strong growth, retail sales in the United States decreased in October, but the decrease was lower than expected, indicating a slowdown in demand and may further strengthen the Federal Reserve's expectation of completing interest rate hikes. This report, coupled with a slowdown in employment and wage growth, has led economists to conclude that the Federal Reserve's current interest rate hike cycle has come to an end. Retail sales have declined after several consecutive months of significant growth, indicating that consumers are feeling the impact of rising interest rates. Most low-income households, after using up excess savings accumulated during the pandemic, can only rely on credit cards to pay for shopping expenses.
At the same time, it was announced that manufacturing activity in New York State in the United States rebounded in November, reversing the previous month's decline, but companies' expectations for the near future have seriously deteriorated. Data shows that in November, the New York Fed's manufacturing index rose 14 points to 9.1, the highest since April, better than the market forecast of -2.8, indicating a rebound in business activity in New York State. About 33% of respondents reported an improvement in the situation, while 24% reported a decrease. The new orders remained at -4.9, indicating a slight decrease, while the shipment volume climbed to 10.0, indicating an increase in shipment volume. The decrease in unfinished orders to -23.2 indicates a significant decrease in inventory, which has risen to 9.1 for the first time in months. The delivery time is still relatively short, at -6.1, and labor market indicators show a slight decrease in employment and average weekly working hours. The increase in input prices has slightly slowed down, while the increase in sales prices has remained stable. However, the outlook has sharply declined, with the Future Situation Index plummeting by about 24 points to -0.9, setting its lowest level in nearly a year. Less than one-third of companies expect an improvement in the economic situation in six months, weak capital expenditure plans, and weak growth in new orders and shipments.
According to the "Federal Reserve Observation" tool of the Chishang Exchange, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in the 5.25% -5.50% range in December is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the 5.50% -5.75% range is 0%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by January next year is 100%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate increase of 25 basis points is 0%.
However, San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley warned that announcing victory in fighting inflation too early and then having to raise interest rates again would endanger the Fed's credibility. She stated that recent economic data showing further deceleration of inflation is "very, very encouraging", indicating that the Federal Reserve's policies are effective. But Daley refused to rule out the possibility of another interest rate hike, as it was uncertain whether the central bank had taken sufficient measures to reduce CPI growth to the target level of 2%.
NVIDIA Ends Ten Consecutive Gains, Microsoft's First Self Developed AI Chip Appears
In terms of sectors, the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 index rose seven times and fell four times. The essential consumer goods sector and communication services sector led gains with gains of 0.70% and 0.60%, respectively, while the energy sector and utility sector led losses with losses of 0.34% and 0.33%, respectively.
Most large technology stocks rose, with Intel up over 3%, Netflix up nearly 3%, Tesla up over 2%, and Apple, Microsoft, and Google A slightly up; Amazon, Nvidia, and Facebook parent company Meta fell by over 1%.
Tesla rose 2.29% and has been up for four consecutive days. On the news, the Cybertruck is about to be delivered, and Tesla has officially issued an invitation letter for the Cybertruck delivery event, which will be held on November 30th at the Texas Super Factory. Tesla Cyberrack was released in November 2019 and received nearly 150000 bookings within just two days of its launch. According to teslarati, as of July 2023, the order volume of Cyberrack has exceeded 1.94 million units, with pre order revenue exceeding $194 million.
NVIDIA fell 1.55%, ending its ten consecutive gains. According to the 13F file, billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller's family office, Duquesne Family Office, reduced NVIDIA's position in the quarter ended September 30th. This is the first time this year that the company has disclosed its reduction of holdings in the stocks of the main beneficiaries of the AI boom. Soros' family office, as well as a department of Stonehage Fleming's multi family office, also reduced their holdings in NVIDIA stocks during this period.
Microsoft rose 0.04%, setting a new historical high for its stock price. At the Microsoft Ignite Global Technology Conference held on Wednesday local time, Microsoft announced the launch of two high-end customized chips, one of which is its first self-developed artificial intelligence chip, the Maia 100. The chip is designed to run large language models, help artificial intelligence systems process large amounts of data faster to complete tasks such as recognizing speech and images, and may avoid high cost dependence on Nvidia. However, Microsoft currently does not intend to sell these chips, but will use them to support its own products and as part of its Azure cloud computing services. The second chip, called Cobalt 100 CPU, is a 128 core cloud native chip based on Arm architecture, which may compete with Intel processors for general-purpose computing tasks. Azure Cloud will release NVIDIA's AI foundry service, and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadela also invited Huang Renxun to discuss the comprehensive cooperation between the two AI giants from hardware to software.
Facebook's parent company Meta fell 1.07%. The company said on Wednesday that its platform services Messenger and Marketplace were included in the "gatekeeper" list by the European Commission, and there was suspicion that the scope of the crackdown was too large. It has officially filed an appeal. It is worth noting that since the EU designated six technology giants (Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, ByteDance, Microsoft and Apple) as "gatekeepers" in accordance with the Digital Market Act (DMA) in early September, Meta is the first company to challenge the new EU regulations.
Large bank stocks generally rose, with Credit Suisse and UBS Group up over 2%, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley up nearly 2%, Bank of America and Citigroup up over 1%, and JPMorgan Chase up nearly 1%.
The China Concept Stock Index surged nearly 3%
Popular Chinese concept stocks rose generally, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 2.87%. In terms of individual stocks, Tencent Music rose by nearly 8%, JD.com rose by over 7%, Vipshop rose by over 6%, Shell rose by nearly 6%, iQiyi and Weibo rose by over 5%, NIO rose by nearly 5%, Alibaba rose by nearly 4%, Pinduoduo and Baidu rose by over 3%, Bilibili, Futu Holdings, and Xiaopeng Automobile rose by over 2%, Ideal Automobile and Ctrip rose by over 1%, and NetEase slightly rose.
On the news, JD Group announced that its revenue in the third quarter was 247.7 billion yuan, an increase of 1.7% compared to the third quarter of 2022; The net profit attributable to common shareholders of listed companies under non US GAAP was 10.6 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations. As a core category, electronic products and household appliances continue to maintain a year-on-year growth rate of revenue higher than the industry average; The service revenue reached 52.4 billion yuan (approximately 7.2 billion US dollars), accounting for over 20% of the overall revenue for the first time, reaching 21.2%, with logistics and other service revenue increasing by 19.3% year-on-year.
Regarding the outlook for 2024, JD's management stated at the performance meeting that with the gradual recovery of the economy and consumption, as well as a series of strategic adjustments and optimization of algorithms and systems this year, the group's core advantages based on the supply chain will continue to be fully realized. The positive impact of this year's adjustment will continue to be released, and it is expected to achieve high-quality business growth next year.
Xiaopeng Automobile announced that its revenue in the third quarter was 8.53 billion yuan, a 25% increase year-on-year; In the third quarter, NON-GAAP had a net loss of 2.79 billion yuan, with an adjusted loss of 1.61 yuan per share. The delivery volume in the third quarter was 40008 vehicles. Xiaopeng Automobile is expected to have a revenue of 12.7 billion yuan to 13.6 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, a year-on-year increase of 86.1% -99.3%; The expected delivery volume is 59500 to 63500 vehicles, an increase of 101.2% -114.7% year-on-year.
Recently, multiple securities companies held 2024 strategic meetings to outlook the economic and capital market trends for next year. Various securities firms generally hold a relatively optimistic attitude towards domestic economic growth in 2024, with some expected economic growth targets of around 5% next year, and even expected to reach over 5%. A-shares are expected to stabilize and rebound. At the same time, several foreign institutions have also raised China's GDP growth rate this year and next, and foreign investors such as Goldman Sachs and Fidelity have been bullish on the Chinese stock market. Liu Jinjin, Chief China Equity Strategist at Goldman Sachs, stated that the valuation of A-shares is currently at a low level. With the gradual recovery of overseas investors' sentiment and the normalization of risk appetite next year, there is still significant room for their positions in A-shares to improve.