首页 News 正文

A debt crisis is coming! The "Debt King" warns that the United States will enter an economic recession next year

海角七号
300 0 0

As high interest rates have pushed up the borrowing costs of the US government, the annual interest expenditure on US debt has soared to more than $1 trillion last month. This situation has also caused an increasing number of market participants to sound the alarm bell.
On Wednesday Eastern Time, Jeff Gundlach, the "debt king", stated in an interview that the US $33 trillion debt mountain is becoming increasingly worrying and the US economy may fall into recession at some point next year.
High interest rates will lead to economic recession
Gunlak warned that under the pressure of a high interest rate environment, the United States may find it difficult to avoid an economic recession. He said, "My belief is that we are about to enter a recession, and if we have not yet entered a recession, we may enter a recession in the second quarter of 2024
He also added, "Our lives are all linked to low interest rates. Now, we are aware of the consequences of high interest rates, and the idea that we will avoid an economic recession has become weak
Given concerns about economic recession, Gonlac is not optimistic about the US technology giants, known as the "Magnificent Seven" - Apple, Microsoft, Google's parent company Alphabet, Amazon, NVIDIA, Tesla, and Meta - in terms of investment advice, despite their recent good performance.
He believes, "In the upcoming recession, they (the Big Seven) are clearly the worst performing. No matter who leads into the recession, they will inevitably lead when the economy declines. I want to stay away from them and choose an equal weight basket instead of a market weighted basket. I will definitely leave the US banking system
Interest on US debt is growing explosively
Gunlak also emphasized the serious impact of a high interest rate environment on the US fiscal situation.
He said, "The reason why I am worried that high interest rates will continue for a longer time is already clear, which is our financial situation, but this issue has not been given enough attention. The interest expenditure on debt is growing vertically
He warned that in an economic recession, fiscal issues will become more severe, as changes in the economic environment will clearly have a significant impact on the fiscal situation. Once the US fiscal situation deteriorates further, it may lead to inflation.
Gunlak predicts that this may ultimately push the US fiscal deficit from 6% to 8% of GDP to 9%, while a larger deficit may exacerbate inflation and lead to a rise in Federal Reserve interest rates in the second half of 2024.
Gunlak also mentioned the burden that high interest rates bring to small and medium-sized enterprises in the United States: We are facing a huge problem because low interest rates have been maintained for so many years, almost a decade, and now the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates for a longer period of time. This also affects small businesses, who used to only need to pay 4% interest rates, but now they need to pay 9% or even 12% interest rates. If our interest rates continue to be higher, it will obviously bring more serious problems
Gunlak warned that the US debt figure is approaching a critical point.
Five years from now, assuming our interest rates are higher and longer in duration, with a 6% interest rate and a deficit of 9% of GDP, 50% of all tax revenue will be used to pay interest. Of course, this is not possible because 70% of the budget is mandatory, "Gunlak quoted the Congressional Budget Office's forecast, We are really close to that moment, we senior colleagues have been talking about it for decades. We are basically at a moment where this is not a problem for our grandchildren, not for our children, but for ourselves
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

本版积分规则

  •   美东时间周五,美股三大指数集体收涨,截止收盘,道指涨0.97%,本周累涨1.96%;纳指涨0.16%,本周累涨1.73%;标普500指数涨0.35%,本周累涨1.68%。   大型科技股涨跌不一,特斯拉涨近4%,微软涨1%,苹果、奈飞 ...
    budingmm
    3 天前
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
  •   新华财经上海11月23日电默沙东与中国癌症基金会23日签署中国低卫生资源地区宫颈癌综合防控项目捐赠协议,将聚焦加速消除宫颈癌这一目标,计划在未来两年由默沙东向中国癌症基金会捐赠共计8.1万支HPV疫苗。    ...
    逸风宝宝
    3 天前
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
  •   11月21日晚,路特斯(LOT.US)公布2024年第三季度财报。1—9月,路特斯总交付量共有7617辆,同比增长136%。此外,公司前九个月总收入为6.53亿美元,同比增长翻番。   具体来看,路特斯全球各主要市场交付比例 ...
    接通无语语sw
    3 天前
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
  •   11月23日,香港科技大学举行荣誉博士学位颁授典礼及博士毕业典礼,其中向英伟达创始人兼CEO黄仁勋颁授工程学荣誉博士,称赞其带领英伟达在加速运算领域取得杰出成果,研发的GPU重新定义电脑视觉体验并为人工智能 ...
    寒武季节俨
    3 天前
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
海角七号 注册会员
  • 粉丝

    0

  • 关注

    1

  • 主题

    29