首页 News 正文

Trump 2.0 is coming! Amidst the sharp rise in the US stock market, analysts warn that 'negative sentiment' cannot be ignored

12111111
3488 0 0

On Wednesday Eastern Time, after the US election situation was settled, the three major stock indexes in the US stock market hit a historic high, with the Dow Jones index recording its largest daily increase since 2022, and the S&P 500 index also achieving its best election day performance in history.
Wall Street analysts say that the market is digesting the positive factors of Trump's return to the White House. Based on Trump's previous promises of tax cuts and regulatory easing, it may bring more positive growth policy prospects for American companies.
However, analysts also caution that Trump's return is likely to lead to a resurgence of inflation in the United States, which will limit the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts and pose a long-term negative threat to the US stock market.
The US stock market is digesting the "positive" factors of the election
Drew Pettit, Citigroup's US stock strategist, said in an interview that the market's positive response to Trump's victory was "expected," partly due to the election being largely "one-sided. He added that when you observe market reactions, you will find that "many Trump trades are leading today
He added that the market is currently reflecting "positive news rather than negative news". Pettit believes that Trump's previously promised relaxation of regulations and tax cuts are a "huge driving force" for domestic oriented American businesses.
US stock futures rose as the election results were announced. In our basic forecast, we expect the S&P 500 index to rise to 6600 points by the end of 2025, up nearly 15% from current levels. This is due to our moderate economic growth, lower interest rates, and continued structural push for artificial intelligence in the US, "said Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management Americas.
He pointed out that the Trump administration's reduction of corporate taxes and/or relaxation of regulations on the energy and financial sectors may provide additional support
Analysts at Janus Henderson Investors stated in a report that "Trump is seen as supporting lower corporate tax rates, deregulation, and industrial policies that are conducive to domestic growth, all of which could provide more stimulus to the US economy and benefit risk assets
Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income and Head of Election Observations at UBS Wealth Management in the Americas, said, "With the arrival of the next Congress and the next administration, the US economy is in a good state, and as uncertainty is eliminated, the stock market also reflects this
There are also negative risks present
But as the US stock market rises, many analysts also remind that Trump's return brings more than just positive news.
Citigroup's Pettit said that while the US stock market is rising, there is also a negative side: "When we really think about what is happening outside the stock market today - interest rates will rise. In the long run, if interest rates continue to rise, we believe this will limit the fair value of the stock market, including small cap stocks
At present, the market's reaction is logical, but what I want to say is that the market reflects more positive news than negative news
David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, also said, "If Trump can fully implement his agenda, it means that the deficit will increase, taxes will decrease, and inflation will rise due to tariffs. Rising inflation and deficit should push up long-term interest rates
Nomura Securities economists predict that after Trump's return, "we now expect the Federal Reserve to only cut interest rates once in 2025, and then keep policy rates unchanged until the actual inflation shock caused by tariffs passes
The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision on Thursday. Currently, Wall Street analysts generally predict that the Federal Reserve will lower its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
您需要登录后才可以回帖 登录 | 立即注册

本版积分规则

  •   11月19日消息,三菱日联金融集团董事长Kanetsugu Mike表示,到2026年3月日本央行可能将政策利率提高至1%的“中性利率”水平。他表示,这是三菱日联金融集团的内部观点。(彭博) ...
    sam128
    3 天前
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
  •   每经AI快讯,11月20日,文远知行宣布旗下自动驾驶环卫车S6与无人扫路机S1分别在新加坡滨海湾海岸大道与滨海艺术中心正式投入运营。据介绍,这是新加坡首个商业化运营的自动驾驶环卫项目。 ...
    star8699
    前天 19:48
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
  •   上证报中国证券网讯(记者王子霖)11月20日,斗鱼发布2024年第三季度未经审计的财务报告。本季度斗鱼依托丰富的游戏内容生态,充分发挥主播资源和新业务潜力,持续为用户提供高质量的直播内容及游戏服务,进一步 ...
    goodfriendboy
    前天 20:09
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
  •   百度创始人李彦宏19日在2024中国5G+工业互联网大会上发表演讲时表示,多智能体协作应用无代码工具"秒哒"发布不到3天,超过5000家企业排队申请测试。此外,L4级端到端的自动驾驶大模型发布后,搭载百度这一大模 ...
    laozhucn
    3 天前
    支持
    反对
    回复
    收藏
12111111 新手上路
  • 粉丝

    0

  • 关注

    0

  • 主题

    0