Trump 2.0 is coming! Amidst the sharp rise in the US stock market, analysts warn that 'negative sentiment' cannot be ignored
12111111
发表于 昨天 10:55
3470
0
0
On Wednesday Eastern Time, after the US election situation was settled, the three major stock indexes in the US stock market hit a historic high, with the Dow Jones index recording its largest daily increase since 2022, and the S&P 500 index also achieving its best election day performance in history.
Wall Street analysts say that the market is digesting the positive factors of Trump's return to the White House. Based on Trump's previous promises of tax cuts and regulatory easing, it may bring more positive growth policy prospects for American companies.
However, analysts also caution that Trump's return is likely to lead to a resurgence of inflation in the United States, which will limit the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts and pose a long-term negative threat to the US stock market.
The US stock market is digesting the "positive" factors of the election
Drew Pettit, Citigroup's US stock strategist, said in an interview that the market's positive response to Trump's victory was "expected," partly due to the election being largely "one-sided. He added that when you observe market reactions, you will find that "many Trump trades are leading today
He added that the market is currently reflecting "positive news rather than negative news". Pettit believes that Trump's previously promised relaxation of regulations and tax cuts are a "huge driving force" for domestic oriented American businesses.
US stock futures rose as the election results were announced. In our basic forecast, we expect the S&P 500 index to rise to 6600 points by the end of 2025, up nearly 15% from current levels. This is due to our moderate economic growth, lower interest rates, and continued structural push for artificial intelligence in the US, "said Solita Marcelli, Chief Investment Officer of UBS Global Wealth Management Americas.
He pointed out that the Trump administration's reduction of corporate taxes and/or relaxation of regulations on the energy and financial sectors may provide additional support
Analysts at Janus Henderson Investors stated in a report that "Trump is seen as supporting lower corporate tax rates, deregulation, and industrial policies that are conducive to domestic growth, all of which could provide more stimulus to the US economy and benefit risk assets
Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income and Head of Election Observations at UBS Wealth Management in the Americas, said, "With the arrival of the next Congress and the next administration, the US economy is in a good state, and as uncertainty is eliminated, the stock market also reflects this
There are also negative risks present
But as the US stock market rises, many analysts also remind that Trump's return brings more than just positive news.
Citigroup's Pettit said that while the US stock market is rising, there is also a negative side: "When we really think about what is happening outside the stock market today - interest rates will rise. In the long run, if interest rates continue to rise, we believe this will limit the fair value of the stock market, including small cap stocks
At present, the market's reaction is logical, but what I want to say is that the market reflects more positive news than negative news
David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, also said, "If Trump can fully implement his agenda, it means that the deficit will increase, taxes will decrease, and inflation will rise due to tariffs. Rising inflation and deficit should push up long-term interest rates
Nomura Securities economists predict that after Trump's return, "we now expect the Federal Reserve to only cut interest rates once in 2025, and then keep policy rates unchanged until the actual inflation shock caused by tariffs passes
The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest rate decision on Thursday. Currently, Wall Street analysts generally predict that the Federal Reserve will lower its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- Is the rise of the 'AI leader' far from over? Analyst: Nvidia's stock price is expected to double again
- 50 basis points won't scare the market! Analyst: The Federal Reserve's significant interest rate cut is' reasonable and well founded '
- Redemption of over 4.9 billion yuan! Huang Renxun's 6 million share reduction plan has been completed ahead of schedule. Analysts boldly predict that Nvidia's long-term market value will soar to $10 trillion
- Abandon polls! Wall Street analyst: Predicting US beauty pageant stocks is more reliable!
- Fed meeting minutes poured cold water? Analysts reach consensus: Federal Reserve officials are not in a hurry to cut interest rates!
- Top 20 US Stock Exchange Transactions: TSMC Increases Over 9%, Market Value Exceeds $1 Trillion
- Two major chip giants suddenly face significant negative news! Qualcomm and Arm reportedly terminate cooperation
- Will the official launch of Apple AI next week trigger a surge in iPhone sales? Renowned analyst: Opportunities are not high in the short term
- Ford's third quarter revenue of $46.2 billion exceeded analysts' expectations
- The US stock market fell across the board! Chip stocks suddenly spread negative news! Trump Media Technology Group Falls Over 22%
-
随着“银十”结束,各家造车新势力都交出了一份亮眼的成绩单。 理想领跑10月新势力交付榜,鸿蒙智行重回4万辆,零跑、深蓝、极氪、小鹏等单月交付量均创新高,岚图、阿维塔、智己等实现破万,但哪吒却消失在 ...
- fanadam
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
为期超七周的大罢工终于落下帷幕。 当地时间11月4日,波音美国西海岸工厂工人们就改进后的合同提案投票。 随后,代表着波音超过33000名西雅图地区机械师的IAM工会经表决,以59%的同意票决定接纳波音提 ...
- cristianna
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
证券时报网讯,热门中概股美股盘前普涨,小鹏汽车、哔哩哔哩涨近5%,蔚来涨超4%,阿里巴巴、拼多多涨超2%。
- p609520
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
何思文表示,“在进博会这个平台上,我们开启的是倾听模式,通过进博会展出各类产品,收集消费者的需求和反馈,进而帮助决定未来进口到中国的产品。过去,汽车行业的许多创新源于美国加州或欧洲。我相信,中国正 ...
- MaxLucky
- 2 小时前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏