The latest poll shows that Harris and Trump are evenly matched!
Recently, global investors have been waiting for the results of the US election. A series of polls released last Sunday showed that Harris and Trump are still evenly matched, with very little difference in support between the two sides, whether it is the entire US or the key swing states that can determine the outcome.
The final public opinion poll conducted by NBC before the US election showed that Harris and Trump's approval ratings are currently tied at 49% each. According to a survey by Morning Consult, Harris leads by 2 percentage points with a margin of error of 1 percentage point, with 49% to 47%.
Recently, Reuters reported that US Democrats speculate that Trump may announce his victory early in this year's election. The Harris campaign team stated that they are preparing a response strategy and will quickly respond to public opinion, calling on the public to remain calm and patient during the vote counting period.
It is worth noting that David Kelly, Global Chief Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, has issued a warning that if Trump wins the US election this week, the Federal Reserve may pause interest rate cuts from December onwards.
Harris and Trump are evenly matched
Last Sunday, the last public opinion poll conducted by NBC before the US election showed that Harris and Trump's approval ratings are currently tied at 49% each. 2% of voters indicate that they are still uncertain about their choice. In addition, two-thirds of voters believe that the United States is moving in the wrong direction. In addition, according to a survey conducted by Yahoo News/YouGov, the support rates of both sides are evenly matched, with the survey results ranging from 47% to 47%.
In a survey of potential voters conducted by Morning Consult on Sunday, Harris led by two percentage points, or 49% -47%, with a margin of error of one percentage point. Since Harris led by three percentage points last week and four percentage points in the previous two Morning Consultant polls, Harris' lead has slightly tightened.
However, the final poll results from ABC News and Ipsos show that Harris leads the nation with a 49% to 46% lead. Data released on Sunday by The New York Times/Siena survey shows that Harris leads in five of the seven swing states. A Des Moines Register poll shows Harris leading 47% to 44% in Iowa (which Trump has won in every election before), which may be an outlier but suggests Harris' efforts to win over white voters in the Midwest could be successful.
According to Agence France Presse on November 3, US presidential candidates Harris and Trump faced off in swing states on the 2nd, marking the last weekend of the most intense presidential campaign in modern America. A series of rallies in swing states will test their endurance and ability to persuade the country's last undecided voters.
According to reports, both of them held rallies in North Carolina on the 2nd, and Harris will also hold rallies in Georgia and Michigan to further convey the message that Trump is a threat to American democracy. Trump will also travel to Virginia, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. He promised to carry out a thorough right-wing transformation of the government and launch an aggressive trade war to promote his' America First 'policy.
During an interview with Fox News on November 2nd, Trump criticized the economic situation under the Biden Harris administration, calling the disappointing employment data released on November 1st a "gift to me".
The busy schedules of the two candidates will continue until Monday, culminating in attending late night rallies - Trump in Grand Rapids, Michigan, and Harris in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
According to data from the Election Lab at the University of Florida, as of the afternoon of November 3rd local time, over 76.46 million voters in the United States have cast early ballots for the 2024 presidential election, with North Carolina's early voter turnout reaching a historic high, with over 4.2 million ballots cast at on-site polling stations.
Recently, Reuters reported that the voting day for the 2024 US election is approaching, and US Democrats speculate that Trump may announce his victory early in this year's election. The Harris campaign team stated that they are preparing a response strategy and will quickly respond to public opinion, calling on the public to remain calm and patient during the vote counting period. Harris did not disclose any specific preparations made, but six Democratic officials and members of Harris' campaign team told the media on November 1 that the Democratic Party's initial response strategy will mainly be carried out in the public opinion arena. They plan to respond as soon as possible and promote it extensively on social media and television broadcasts, calling on the public to remain calm and patient during the vote counting period.
One senior official of the Democratic National Committee said, "Once Trump wrongly declares victory, we are prepared to reveal the truth on television and use the influence of the general public to counterattack
A senior official from the Harris team also stated in a conference call with reporters that they "fully anticipated" that Trump would falsely claim victory before all the votes were counted. The official said, "He has done this before. If he does it again, he will face failure
JPMorgan Chase issues' warning '
Recently, David Kelly, Global Chief Strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, warned that if Trump wins the US election this week, the Federal Reserve may pause its easing cycle as early as December.
David Kelly pointed out that Trump's expansionary fiscal policy plan will push up inflation and prevent interest rates from falling. David Kelly said, "If the Republican Party wins a big victory over Trump, you will get more expansionary fiscal policies, which may lead to trade wars, larger deficits, and higher interest rates." The impact of these policies will prompt the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate cuts.
David Kelly also stated that if Harris wins, the US economy may continue on a soft landing trajectory. If you have a divided government, like Harris' victory, then I think you will continue this slow, long-term soft landing economy, but it's a bit dull, "he said. In this situation, the Federal Reserve may stick to its expected loose policy path.
Although the Federal Reserve operates independently, David Kelly pointed out that the Fed will still respond to politics because developments may indicate the direction of the economy. David Kelly stated that the Federal Reserve is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the end of its next meeting on November 7th, and then pause its easing cycle as early as the December meeting.
Currently, traders are discussing various possibilities, constantly checking the latest opinion polls and trends in the election betting market to predict who is leading, Trump or Harris, and what this means for their trading positions. In some markets, some people speculate that Wall Street is betting on Trump. However, when it comes to actually investing money in the stock market based on this, everyone is calm. Investment professionals know that predicting the winner of a trade before the fact occurs usually results in significant profits. But the problem is that this election is evenly matched, so for many investors, if expectations fall through, the risk will be unbearable.
We don't build positions ahead of the election results because it's like flipping a coin, "said Eric Diton, President and Managing Director of Wealth Alliance, in an interview. Placing bets is meaningless
Most traders expect the market to fluctuate this week, and the volatility may be significant, as controversial results could potentially delay vote counting for weeks or even months. This explains why the Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility index has risen above 20 over the past four trading days, a level that typically indicates increased stock market pressure. That's also why investors are not so eager to make investment choices based on expected election results.
Past opinion polls have always been absurdly wrong, "said Dave Lutz, a stock sales trader and macro strategist at JonesTrading. It's not certain who wins or loses.
Anwiti Bahuguna, Chief Investment Officer of Global Asset Allocation at Northern Trust Asset Management, said, "Investors need to carefully observe election risks, and traders cannot even build positions at this point because speculation is strong, and traders do not know which policy proposals of any candidate will actually be passed in Congress
Analysts Liu Gang and Li Yujie from China International Capital Corporation (CICC) pointed out in their latest research report that if the results are stronger than expected, that is, a "Republican victory" (President Trump+Republican control of both houses of Congress), the current "Trump deal" will still have a period of time and magnitude of upward momentum, but it will also enter a temporary suspension period waiting for the actual implementation of policies, similar to the surge after the 2016 election and the gradual suspension after January 2017; If the result is lower than expected, that is, except for the situation of "Republican victory", especially Harris winning the election, it will directly lead to a reversal of all transactions.
Specifically, a complete victory for the Republican Party will strengthen expectations for the advancement of Trump's policies, forcing some previously hesitant investors to quickly chase higher. This means that there is still some room for Trump's overall trading, and assets that were not previously included in expectations will have a greater impact. 1) The US stock market, US Treasury bonds, US dollar, and Bitcoin still have the possibility of rising in the short term, similar to the Trump trade in 2016, but the rebound will be lower than the previous round. After a period of time, the transaction may be postponed or reversed. 2) On the contrary, there is a risk that copper, crude oil, and China's export chain need to compensate for insufficient expected accounting. Strong cyclical and resource risk assets such as copper and oil may rebound under the expectation of re inflation; Gold, based on uncertainty hedging, may actually reverse; The Chinese export chain may be under marginal pressure, and industries with a low proportion of exports to the United States and a high proportion of imports to China may have relative resilience.
Any combination other than 'Republican victory' could lead to a reversal of Trump's deal. For example, Harris' victory will directly lead to a reversal in Trump's trading, such as the US dollar and US Treasury rates, a possible pullback in gold, and even some pressure on US stocks, while other assets damaged by Trump's policies will be relieved of pressure. If Trump wins but the Democratic Party controls the House of Representatives, the implementation of incremental stimulus policies may be hindered, leading to a reversal in US bond rates and the US dollar. The US stock market may also face pressure, but the export chain will still be under pressure, and gold will continue to trade with tariffs and geopolitical uncertainties.