In the past few weeks, against the backdrop of relatively stable poll numbers, the probability of Trump winning the election has skyrocketed in the gambling market, which has largely stimulated the comprehensive rise of "Trump trading" in the financial market. However, if one carefully observes the financial movements of some platforms, everything seems not so simple
Polymarket, a cryptocurrency prediction platform, is currently one of the largest election prediction markets in terms of trading volume. Due to regulatory reasons, this platform is only open to traders outside the United States.
According to industry trackers of Polymarket's financial activities, the billion dollar bets of just a small group of anonymous traders have dramatically increased Trump's expected chances of winning the US presidential election this year in this well-known prediction market.
Among them, the "high stakes gambling" of four anonymous accounts is particularly noteworthy. As one of the accounts increased its betting size on Monday, the potential payout amount that these four accounts could receive in the event of Trump's victory has increased from $30 million on Friday to nearly $43 million (approximately 300 million RMB) on Monday morning.
A person who asked not to be named said last Friday that none of the above four accounts of the cryptocurrency forecast exchange were nominally owned by Americans.
As Trump's winning rate on the Polymarket platform increases, these massive bets naturally attract people's attention because they are vastly different from the results of public opinion polls.
According to polls, the approval ratings between Vice President Harris and former President Trump are evenly matched. But on the Polymarket platform, as of Monday, Trump's chances of winning soared to 63%, while Harris only had 37%. The odds of other mainstream election prediction platforms such as Kalshi and PredictIt are currently closely following Polymarket.
Note: The coarse pink red line represents the average winning rate of the betting market, the blue line represents the winning rate based on polls, and the light pink red line represents the winning rate of Polymarket
This has raised doubts among social media users and prediction market experts: is it the large bets that have influenced the market, or is the aforementioned prediction market actually a better leading indicator than poll numbers?
At present, the outside world cannot confirm whether these four accounts (account names Fredi9999, Theo4, PrincesCaro, and Michie) represent the same trader or multiple traders, and there is little publicly available information about these four accounts. But some predictive market experts believe that there are credible signs of interconnection between these accounts, suggesting that they may be related to an individual or a group. Their public comments also showed a similar spirited tone and chaotic wording style.
The "gameplay" on gambling prediction websites such as Polymarket is actually very simple. The cost of each contract is priced based on the probability of the outcome. For example, if the trading price of each contract for Trump winning the election during a certain period of time is 60 cents, this means that the market believes that Trump's chances of winning are 60%. If Trump ultimately wins, the buyer can receive $1 per contract. And if Trump loses, the rectal bleeding will be gone.
It is reported that as of now, bettors on Polymarket have invested a total of $1.1 billion in this year's US presidential election.
Some industry insiders are currently concerned about whether these traders who bet on Trump's victory in the gambling market may intentionally manipulate the election, creating an impression of Trump's strong momentum.
Since Trump's overwhelming victory rate emerged, many conservative commentators have been posting Polymarket screenshots on X, claiming that this is conclusive evidence that Trump is about to achieve an overwhelming victory, and Trump's supporter Musk is undoubtedly "enjoying it". Meanwhile, some people are concerned that these traders may have access to substantive insider information that has not yet been made public.