Driven by factors such as a generally optimistic start to the third quarter financial report, strong economic data, and the Federal Reserve entering a monetary easing cycle, the three major US stock indices recorded six consecutive weekly gains.
Looking ahead to next week, the earnings season for large tech companies is here again, and Tesla will be the first to make an appearance. At the highly anticipated "Robotaxi Day" event recently, Tesla did not bring many surprises, which led to a significant drop in its stock price.
As the market's attention increasingly shifts towards profits, Tesla's stock price may continue to face pressure due to the ongoing headwinds in the automotive industry. But if Tesla continues to "paint the cake" in artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous vehicles, and humanoid robot Optimus, investors are also willing to pay for it.
Is the investment of technology companies in the AI field a gold mine or a bottomless pit? It is currently unknown. Prior to this, the large-scale investment in AI and the seemingly endless returns had already raised doubts among investors, leading to a wave of correction in the US stock market.
Currently, Wall Street remains optimistic about the potential of AI to boost the wealth of large tech companies. According to FactSet data, an average of 91% of analysts who track stocks of Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta give these companies a buy rating.
In terms of financial reports, besides Tesla, there are also companies worth paying attention to such as Boeing, Coca Cola, General Motors, and IBM.
The US presidential election has entered the decisive stage, and both parties are vigorously campaigning to gain more support from voters. The latest poll data shows that Trump and Harris still have similar approval ratings, making them evenly matched.
But in the gambling market, the balance of victory and defeat is clearly tilting towards Trump's side. According to the Polymarket website, Trump's chances of winning the election have reached 61%, far ahead of his competitor Harris' 39%.
If Trump is re elected as president, he may fundamentally reshape the world trade system. He previously stated that if he were to enter the White House, he would place the imposition of tariffs at the core of his agenda.
If Harris is elected president, he may continue Biden's trade agenda and adopt targeted and strategic tariff measures. Maintain tariffs and other restrictions on certain countries, while basically giving allies a break.
In the financial market, the "Trump transaction" swept the global market, and all kinds of assets from small cap stocks to Bitcoin were rising, while the Mexican peso and US treasury bond bonds were declining; The stock price of the core Trump Media Technology Group (DJT) has risen nearly 100% this month.
The Russell 2000 index is approaching its highest level since the end of 2021, and the market expects Trump to continue to maintain low tax rates and reduce regulation, which has boosted the trend of small cap stocks. However, some investors have pointed out that the continuous record breaking of US stocks is due to the strong US economy and the Federal Reserve's entry into a monetary easing cycle.
The Bank of Canada is expected to cut interest rates by 50 basis points next week, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem has previously stated that policymakers are "ready to take a bigger step". The central bank has made significant progress in reducing inflation, with the inflation rate dropping to a three-and-a-half-year low of 1.6% in September.
In terms of the Middle East conflict, there is no sign of cooling down the Gaza war after Israel killed Hamas leader Sinwar, although the Biden administration emphasizes that this has opened the way for a ceasefire and even a long-term solution to the Gaza issue.
The war is not over yet, "Netanyahu announced in a televised speech on Thursday evening, implying that he may believe Sinwar's death proves that his policy of military pressure in Gaza is correct and will continue.
Hamas senior official Khalil Haya responded by saying that the death of Sinwar would only strengthen Hamas' strength and determination, and that the detainees in Gaza would not be released unless the Israeli army stopped attacking Gaza, completely withdrew from Gaza, and released Palestinian detainees.
At the same time, people are also paying attention to Israel's retaliatory actions against Iran. According to reports, Israel's plan to attack Iran is "ready", and the "THAAD" anti missile system provided by the United States to Israel has also arrived. Iran has warned that if Israel attacks Iranian targets, Iran will take further retaliatory actions.
Overview of important events next week:
Monday (October 21st): China's one-year loan market quoted interest rate until October 21st, Germany's September PPI monthly rate, the United States' September leading indicator monthly rate, Dallas Fed President Logan's speech, IMF World Bank annual meeting held
Tuesday (October 22): Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for October, Kansas Fed President Schmid's speech on economic and monetary policy prospects, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari's speech, Huawei's Native HarmonyOS Night and all scenario new product launch event, Philadelphia Fed President Huck's speech
Wednesday (October 23): API crude oil inventory from the United States until the week of October 18, central bank interest rate decision from Canada until October 23, annualized total sales of existing homes in the United States in September, EIA crude oil inventory from the United States until the week of October 18, speech by Federal Reserve Governor Bauman at the 8th Financial Technology Annual Meeting hosted by the Federal Reserve in Philadelphia, and speech by European Central Bank President Lagarde on the outlook for the European economy
Thursday (October 24th): China's September Swift RMB share in global payments, Eurozone October manufacturing PMI preliminary values, UK October manufacturing PMI, US initial jobless claims for the week ending October 19th, US October S&P global manufacturing PMI preliminary values, US September new home sales total annualized, US EIA natural gas inventory for the week ending October 18th, Federal Reserve releases economic status brown book, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda at IMF hosted event; quot; CEO Meeting& quot; Deliver a speech
Friday (October 25th): UK October Gfk Consumer Confidence Index, Germany October IFO Business Sentiment Index, Canada August Retail Sales Monthly Rate, US September Durable Goods Orders Monthly Rate, US October University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index Final Value, US October 1-Year Inflation Rate Expected Final Value, Russian Central Bank announces interest rate decision