According to a report by the Securities Times on the 20th, Guo Mingchi, an analyst at Tianfeng International Securities, recently released industry chain order information for the Nvidia Blackwell GB200 chip. Microsoft is currently the world's largest GB200 customer, with order volume surging 3-4 times in the fourth quarter of this year, exceeding the total order volume of all other cloud service providers.
Guo Mingchi stated in a new report that the expansion of production capacity for Nvidia Blackwell chips is expected to commence in early Q4 2024. Considering the yield rate and testing efficiency, it is expected that the shipment volume in the fourth quarter of 2024 will be between 150000 and 200000 pieces, and the shipment volume in the first quarter of 2025 is expected to significantly increase by 200% to 250%, reaching 500000 to 550000 pieces.
This means that Nvidia may only need a few quarters to achieve its sales target of one million units. Nvidia founder and CEO Huang Renxun stated in a previous interview that the company's upcoming Blackwell chip has been fully put into production and demand is "crazy".
Currently, Microsoft is the most active customer in purchasing the Blackwell GB200. In addition to the GB200 NVL36 order originally scheduled for testing in Q4 2024, Microsoft recently plans to obtain customized GB200 NVL72 units before the NVIDIA DGX GB200 NVL72 (also known as the reference design) enters mass production (mid-2025).
Microsoft's order volume for Blackwell GB200 in the fourth quarter of 2024 has surged from 300-500 cabinets (mainly NVL36) to approximately 1400-1500 cabinets, of which approximately 70% are NVL72, with the highest growth rate reaching 400%. Subsequent orders will mainly focus on NVL72.
According to Guo Mingchi's updated industrial chain order information, Microsoft has recently discussed with key component suppliers about capacity expansion in the fourth quarter of 2024 (approximately 1.5 to 2 times or more than the original capacity) and is preparing to stock up in advance.
Foxconn and Guangda are responsible for delivering Microsoft's Blackwell system. According to surveys by both companies, Microsoft's Blackwell GB200 order volume is far ahead of other cloud service providers, and it is said that the company is rapidly expanding its AI computing capabilities.
Microsoft plans to prioritize the deployment of Blackwell GB200 in low-temperature data centers such as Washington State in the United States, Quebec City in Canada, Helsinki in Finland, etc., to proactively mitigate potential impacts caused by insufficient cooling system optimization time. Other cloud service providers' orders include Amazon's GB200 NVL36 orders for 300-400 cabinets in Q4 2024, as well as Meta's focus on Ariel architecture rather than Bianca, both of which have significantly lower order volumes than Microsoft.
It is worth mentioning that Microsoft Azure official account recently posted on social media that the company has obtained an AI server equipped with Nvidia Blackwell GB200 super chip, becoming the first global cloud service provider to use the Blackwell system. Guo Mingchi stated that Microsoft's Blackwell GB200 key component supplier plans to start large-scale production and shipment in the fourth quarter of 2024, which will promote its supply chain performance earlier than other cloud service providers.
At the market level, Nvidia's stock price continues to soar, reaching a historic high again this week with a cumulative increase of 186.5% for the year. The latest total market value has climbed to $3.39 trillion (approximately RMB 24 trillion).
Despite the astonishing increase, several Wall Street institutions remain very optimistic about Nvidia's outlook. Among them, Bank of America analysts Vivek Arya, Duksan Jang, and others stated that buying Nvidia is a "once-in-a-generation opportunity", and Nvidia's current valuation is still attractive because its PEG index (price to earnings ratio/year-on-year compound growth rate of earnings per share) for 2025 is only 0.6 times, far below the average of 1.9 times for other companies in the "Big Seven" of US technology stocks.
Bank of America expects Nvidia's earnings per share (EPS) to continue to rise by 13% to 20% for the fiscal years 2025 to 2026, and has raised Nvidia's target price to $190. It is expected that by 2027, Nvidia's earnings per share will increase by more than 5 times to $5.67, and the price to earnings ratio will drop to a milder 24 times.
Billionaire investor and founder of Duquesne Family Office, Stanley Druckenmiller, said on Wednesday that his decision to sell off Nvidia stock earlier this year was a "major mistake".
Druckenmiller is 71 years old and currently has a net worth of approximately $6.9 billion, making him one of the top 500 richest people in the world. Previously, as a trusted assistant to George Soros, he managed Soros' Quantum Fund and helped Soros defeat the pound in 1992.
In my investment career, I have made many mistakes, one of which was selling all of my Nvidias for around $800-950, "Druckenmiller said in a media interview. Druckenmiller's remarks did not reflect Nvidia's 10-1 stock split that began in June this year. Based on the adjusted price for stock split, his selling price should be between $80 and $95.
This week, the bull market in the US stock market entered its third year. In the context of overvalued technology stocks, whether the US stock market can continue to rise depends to some extent on the performance of technology giants.
According to FactSet data, Wall Street currently expects S&P 500 companies to see a year-on-year profit growth of 4.7% in the third quarter, far lower than the previous quarter's 7.9% and the lowest growth rate in four quarters.
Specifically, among the 11 industries in the S&P 500 index, 9 industries have seen a downward adjustment in EPS expectations, with the energy industry experiencing a decrease of 19.2%, the materials industry experiencing a decrease of 9.4%, and information technology being the only industry with an upward adjustment in expectations.
Looking ahead to the performance of technology giants in the third quarter report, analysts believe that in terms of profit expectations, information technology and communication services may still be the sectors with the strongest growth in the US stock market in the third quarter, or continue to support the strength of the US stock market. Therefore, whether the rebound of technology stocks in this round is a brief rebound in the continuous rotation of the US stock market or the beginning of a long-term rebound, the performance report of technology stocks in this US stock earnings season will give the market an answer.
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