The 'Trump deal' is coming with great momentum.
The long dormant 'Trump deal' seems to be making a comeback. Among them, the stock price of Trump Media Technology Group continues to soar. On October 16th, Eastern Time, the stock price surged by more than 15.5%, and the latest stock price has increased by more than 166% compared to the low point in September. At the same time, the 'Trump deal' is driving Bitcoin prices and the US dollar to continue to strengthen.
On the news front, Trump's campaign situation has undergone a significant reversal. On October 16th local time, a latest national poll released by Fox News showed that Trump led Harris with 50% support, which is a significant change from Harris' 50% -48% advantage in September.
Billionaire investor and Chairman and CEO of Duquesne Family Office, Stanley Druckenmiller, said, "The market has priced in and Trump will win next month's US presidential election. In the past 12 days, the market seems very confident that Trump will win
Trump's sudden reversal
With less than three weeks left until the voting day of the US presidential election, the "battle" between Democratic presidential candidate Harris and Republican presidential candidate Trump has become increasingly intense.
But at a critical moment, Trump's campaign situation suddenly underwent a significant reversal.
On October 16th local time, a latest national poll released by Fox News showed that Trump led Harris with 50% support, which is a significant change from Harris' 50% -48% advantage in September.
It is reported that this survey was conducted from October 11th to 14th, and the data was based on 1110 potential voters and a secondary sampling of 870 potential voters, with an error margin of+/-3 percentage points.
According to the betting market average provided by RealClearPolitics, a website that compiles betting odds, as of the evening of October 16th local time, Trump's chances of winning the election have reached 57.7%, the highest level since July 22nd, far ahead of his Democratic rival Harris' 41.3%.
According to the well-known cryptocurrency prediction market platform Polymarket data, Trump's approval rating continued to rise after reaching "parity" on October 3. As of October 14, Trump's approval rating has significantly surpassed Harris' 44.5% with 54.0%.
Three opinion polls released by authoritative polling agencies in the United States also show that Harris' lead over Trump is gradually shrinking.
The latest poll results released by NBC show that Harris and Trump's approval ratings nationwide are expected to be tied at 48% by November 5th, the voting day. In the same survey last month, Harris' approval rating was leading by 5 percentage points.
After tracking and analyzing months of US presidential election poll data, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) found that in seven states considered "key battlefields," poll results were "very tight. According to the average poll data, no candidate has yet achieved a 'decisive advantage'.
The National Broadcasting Corporation of the United States reported that the number of voters who believed that the election could have a huge impact on their lives reached a new high in this US election. This means that Harris and Trump are facing an uncertain future and unprecedented challenges.
The 'Trump Deal' is making a comeback
The changing situation of Trump's campaign has caused huge fluctuations in the capital market, and the long dormant "Trump deal" seems to be making a comeback.
Firstly, the stock price of Trump Media Technology Group continues to soar. On October 16th, Eastern Time, the stock price surged by 15.5% again, with the latest price reaching $31.26, a cumulative increase of over 166% compared to the September low.
Secondly, the price of Bitcoin has continued to strengthen. On the evening of October 16th, the price of Bitcoin once exceeded $68000 per coin, the highest level since July 30th. As of press time, the price of Bitcoin was reported at $67563 per coin. On the news front, Bitcoin, as an area that Trump had previously publicly expressed support for, has performed well in the recent resurgence of the "Trump trade".
In addition, the "Trump trade" is driving the continuous rise of the US dollar, and traders say that in the foreign exchange options market of over $300 billion, US dollar call options are becoming increasingly popular. Saurabh Tandon, Global Head of Foreign Exchange Options at Standard Chartered Bank, said, "When Trump's odds began to shift in his favor last week, this bet began to increase
On the other hand, the "Harris Trading" has shown weakness, with the Jing Shun Solar ETF (TAN) and iShares Clean Energy ETF (ICLN), which are considered representatives of the "Harris Trading", falling by 12% and 8% respectively this month.
On October 16th local time, billionaire investor and Chairman and CEO of Duquesne Family Wealth Management, Stanley Druckenmiller, stated that the market has priced in and Trump will win next month's US presidential election. In the past 12 days, the market seems very confident that Trump will win. You can see this from bank stocks, cryptocurrency, and even from Trump's media technology DJT
Guotai Junan International believes that the "Trump deal" is beneficial for industries such as finance, energy, and information technology. From Trump's policy agenda, in terms of energy, compared to Harris' support for clean energy and tax breaks for electric vehicles, Trump has promised to vigorously explore fossil fuels, relax a series of environmental regulations, and does not support the Green New Deal policy; Trump sees the Biden administration's electric vehicle plan as a threat to the US automotive industry and economy, with a focus on developing traditional fuel vehicles, which is more favorable for the traditional energy industry. In the information technology industry, Trump's policies on economic expansion are favorable for the industry. For the financial industry, Trump tends to relax financial regulation and support the development of cryptocurrencies. The reduction of compliance costs will undoubtedly improve the overall profitability of the industry.