The price of gold has reached a new historical high.
On October 17th, data showed that spot gold (London gold spot, the same below) prices broke through the high of $2685.58/ounce set in September, and rose to a record high of $2685.73/ounce.
As of the time of press, the spot gold price has risen again above $2680 per ounce after experiencing a surge and a decline, reaching $2680.99 per ounce.
In terms of futures market, data shows that COMEX gold futures also quickly rose during the trading session on October 17th, reaching a high of $2701 per ounce and hitting the $2700 mark for two consecutive days. As of press time, COMEX gold futures reported a high of $2698.2 per ounce.
Since September, COMEX gold futures have risen by over $170 in this round of uptrend, with an increase of 6.73%.
In terms of domestic futures market, driven by the rise in foreign gold prices, as of Thursday (October 17), the Shanghai gold main 2412 contract closed at 614.26 yuan/gram, up 1.11%, reaching a high of 615.16 yuan/gram.
In addition, the closing price of "Shanghai Gold" on the Shanghai Gold Exchange also rose generally as of October 17th. Among them, the closing price of the Shanghai Gold Au99.99 contract was 612.66 yuan/gram, with a highest price of 613.5 yuan/gram; The closing price of the Au99.95 contract is 611.12 yuan/gram, with a maximum price of 612.0 yuan/gram; The closing price of the Au100g contract is 611.15 yuan/gram, with a maximum price of 613.0 yuan/gram.
In terms of jewelry gold prices, after a phased adjustment, they have now returned to their previous high and risen to the first line level of 790 yuan/gram.
According to data from the Shanghai Gold Jewelry Industry Association, on October 17th, in terms of pure gold prices, Lao Fengxiang reported 789 yuan/gram, Lao Miao reported 793 yuan/gram, China Gold reported 793 yuan/gram, and Chow Tai Fook reported 793 yuan/gram.
Analysts say that the continued rise in gold prices is mainly driven by both monetary and safe haven properties. On the one hand, global central banks are gradually cutting interest rates, and the expansion of their balance sheets is expected to strengthen the monetary nature of precious metals. On the other hand, the alternating increase in gold holdings by central banks around the world, combined with their safe haven nature, has brought more bullish support to precious metals.
Dongfang Jincheng Research Report pointed out that last week, the rebound in US inflation expectations, coupled with weakened employment data, led to the stabilization and recovery of gold prices. This week (the week of October 14th), the price of gold may fluctuate narrowly. However, in the medium term, the current US inflation is slowing down, the market's expectation of another expansion of the US debt cycle has risen, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has not cooled down. The demand for risk aversion has formed a positive effect on the gold price, so the gold price still has some room to rise.
According to open-source securities analysis, October is a crucial month before the US election, and overseas investors may once again engage in a game of expectations regarding the election results and the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts. In December, the test window for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates appeared, and the market was more sensitive to data on economic weakness. Considering that the rate of interest rate decline is still slow (expected to be 100BP within the year), there may be a possibility of a falsified economic soft landing, and the market quickly traded to cool down the economy. Therefore, gold still has buying points in October and November, and there may still be a two-stage upward trend in gold prices in 2025H1.
Zhengxin Futures stated that against the backdrop of rising expectations for a soft landing in the US economy, the US dollar index and US Treasury rates have continued to fluctuate and rebound, with the US dollar index hitting a new high in nearly two months and breaking through the 103.5 integer level. COMEX gold futures prices have fluctuated in the range of $2650/ounce to $2700/ounce.
The short-term US dollar index has rebounded to around the important technical pressure level of 104, and attention is being paid to the positive financial attributes that will drive the prices of precious metals after a blocked pullback, which may drive further upward, "said Zhengxin Futures.
In terms of hedging, Huatai Futures stated that although the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is still restrictive, there seems to be some deviation from Powell's previous statement that his attitude towards inflation control has weakened. However, the price of gold is still performing strongly due to geopolitical factors.
In the current situation of changing geopolitical factors and significant uncertainty in the economic outlook, precious metals are still worth allocating, "Huatai Futures pointed out.
It is worth mentioning that analysts say that looking ahead to the future, precious metals priced in RMB are expected to further open up upward space under the triple bullish trend.
Since early August, as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy entered a cycle of interest rate cuts, precious metals have experienced a bullish trend driven by the resonance of financial, monetary, and safe haven attributes. However, since the decline in September, with the resilience of US economic inflation, employment, and service sector PMI, US bond rates and the US dollar index have rebounded from oversold, and financial attributes have suppressed further increases, "said analysis by Zhengxin Futures.
Zhengxin Futures pointed out that since late September, China's macro incremental policies have been introduced, with a comprehensive increase in monetary easing, fiscal easing, and real estate easing to promote stable economic growth, expand domestic demand, and mitigate risks. The core of the package of measures still lies in resolving current economic contradictions through fiscal monetization. The balance sheet of the People's Bank of China is expected to further expand, fiscal easing is expected to curb the downward trend of prices, and the decline in nominal and real interest rates provides financial attribute drivers.
The expectation of stabilizing and rebounding real estate has repaired the industrial properties of precious metals, and the triple bullish trend may open up the upward space for RMB denominated precious metals. The Shanghai gold price is bullish in the long run, and it is recommended that investors mainly hold long positions. "Zhengxin Futures further pointed out.
In addition to gold, the future performance of silver, which is also a precious metal, is also favored by institutions. Zhengxin Futures stated that in the process of realizing the expectation of a soft landing in the US economy, the recovery of industrial demand is expected to drive a significant rebound in silver prices. Therefore, it is recommended that investors adopt a short-term strategy of more pullback and participation in silver.