Overnight, European and American stock markets closed down across the board. Chinese concept stocks experienced a sharp decline.
The collective decline of the US stock market
The three major indexes of the US stock market collectively closed down, with the Nasdaq falling 1.01%, the S&P 500 index falling 0.76%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.75%. The news that Israel will avoid hitting Iranian crude targets has caused a sharp drop in oil prices. Several Federal Reserve officials will deliver speeches today.
Most large technology stocks fell, with Nvidia falling over 4% and Intel falling over 3%; Apple rose over 1%, while Tesla saw a slight increase.
Popular Chinese concept stocks generally fell, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index falling 5.92%. JD.com fell over 9%, Bilibili and Vipshop fell over 6%, Pinduoduo, Ideal Auto, iQiyi, Alibaba, and Baidu fell over 5%, Xiaopeng Motors fell over 4%, Weibo and NetEase fell over 3%, and NIO fell over 2%.
The FTSE A50 futures index closed down 1.28% in consecutive night trading, at 13254 points.
The three major European stock indices collectively fell.
The Federal Reserve's Daly reiterated his view that there may be one or two more interest rate cuts this year
In terms of economic data, the New York manufacturing index unexpectedly shrank. According to a report released by the New York Federal Reserve on Tuesday, manufacturing activity in the New York area unexpectedly declined in October.
The New York Federal Reserve reported on Tuesday that the manufacturing index for Empire State (New York State) in October was -11.9, a decrease of 23.4 points compared to September and far below the Dow Jones' widely estimated 3.0. This index measures the percentage difference between companies reporting expansion and contraction.
The New York Manufacturing Index report shows that the new orders index for October plummeted to -10.2, while shipments fell to -2.7, as both indices showed a decline of about 20 points. In addition, although the employment rate increased by 9.8 points to 4.1, both the pay price index and the receive price index showed an increase, indicating an increase in inflationary pressure.
Although the overall manufacturing index plummeted in September, the expectation index for economic activity in the next six months increased by 8.1 points to 38.7.
Analysis shows that data released since the Federal Reserve's September meeting showed stronger than expected recruitment activity last month and a higher than expected increase in basic inflation, prompting several Fed officials to express their support for a more gradual approach to interest rate cuts in the future.
Mary Daly, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated on the 15th that as long as the economic performance meets expectations, the Federal Reserve may still cut interest rates further this year.
Daley stated at an event at New York University that the Fed's 50 basis point reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate in September was a "moderate adjustment" to its interest rate policy stance. This policy change is a recognition of the progress we have made and a slight relaxation of policy controls, but we will not let go of it. She said that even if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points in September, monetary policy remains restrictive, putting additional downward pressure on inflation to ensure that the long-term target of 2% inflation rate is achieved.
Daley has voting rights in the Federal Open Market Committee, which formulates monetary policy, this year. She said that if inflation weakens as scheduled, it would be reasonable to cut interest rates once or twice this year.
The Federal Reserve will hold its next monetary policy meeting on November 6-7. At present, the market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will continue to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at that time.
International oil prices plummet
The international gold price has slightly increased. COMEX gold futures rose 0.52% to $2679.5 per ounce. COMEX silver futures rose 0.18% to $31.685/ounce.
International oil prices dropped significantly on the 15th. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for November delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $3.25, closing at $70.58 per barrel, a decrease of 4.40%; The London Brent crude oil futures price for December delivery fell by $3.21, closing at $74.25 per barrel, a decrease of 4.14%.
Several senior officials of the Biden administration have stated in media interviews that Israel plans to limit its retaliation against Iran to military targets and does not plan to attack Iran's oil industry or nuclear facilities.
Helima Croft, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, stated that geopolitical risks have completely evaporated from the market.
However, Croft warned that the escalation of the Middle East conflict could ultimately lead to disruptions in oil supply, and if Israel launches a large-scale strike on Iranian military targets resulting in casualties, Iran's response could lead to further escalation of Israeli retaliation.
Croft said that the White House has sufficient concerns about Iran's retaliation and is therefore working very hard to get Israel to retract its potential attack list. Before seeing how Iran retaliates, Israel may use attacking Iran's oil industry as a backup card.
On October 16th, two Israeli officials stated that although Israel's attack on Iran is not expected to target nuclear and oil facilities, it may include missile and drone launchers, warehouses, factories, Iran's military bases, government buildings, and other targets.