Recently, Tesla's "WE ROBOT" launch event was held in Los Angeles. Tesla CEO Elon Musk appeared dressed in black and rode in the latest Robotaxi self driving taxi.
This Robotaxi autonomous taxi is eye-catching in design: the vehicle has smooth lines, a silver body with gull wing doors, abandoning the traditional steering wheel and pedals of vehicles and replacing them with a large-sized display screen; Passengers can directly summon nearby vehicles through their mobile phones, and all order information will appear on this display screen, allowing users to clearly see their taxi progress. Musk emphasized that this is' completely autonomous driving '.
Since 2016, Musk has put the Robotaxi project on the agenda; Now, eight years have passed, how is the status of the autonomous vehicle race track? What impact does Tesla's entry have on the entire market? How can companies within it "run" at the forefront of the track?
Eight years have passed since the arrival of Robotaxi without steering wheel and pedals
On the morning of October 11th Beijing time, the highly anticipated Tesla new product launch event was officially held. On that day, Tesla CEO Elon Musk arrived at the event site in his latest self driving taxi and unveiled the Robotaxi service, two fully autonomous vehicle models Cybercab and Robovan, as well as wireless induction charging technology for Robotaxi.
It is reported that Robotaxi's autonomous taxi service relies on FSD (Tesla's fully autonomous driving capability), and all Tesla owners can join the shared fleet through a combination of Airbnb and Uber; Not only that, Tesla vehicles currently on the road can form a huge vehicle service operation network with the newly released Cybercab unmanned taxi and Robovan unmanned multifunctional vehicle, completely revolutionizing the current business model.
Previously, Musk mentioned during Tesla's Q2 earnings call this year that when the FSD is updated to V12.5 or V12.6 versions, Tesla will request regulatory approval from Europe, China, and other countries for Tesla's FSD supervised version. Next year, Tesla will launch unsupervised FSD capabilities for Model 3 and Model Y in Texas and California, USA.
Counting Musk's past public statements, it is not difficult to see that he has always been a fan of autonomous driving. As early as 2016, the Robotaxi project was put on Musk's agenda, but this wait lasted for eight years; In the first half of this year, Musk posted on social media that he would launch a self driving taxi on August 8th. However, as the launch was approaching, Musk claimed that the launch was delayed due to the exterior design not meeting expectations. After twists and turns, Musk finally submitted his answer sheet.
According to Musk, the vehicle cost of Cybercab will be less than $30000 and production is planned to begin in 2026. By 2027, Tesla will mass produce this car. It is worth mentioning that Cybercab will no longer have a charging port, but will adopt wireless induction charging, and can use a robotic arm to automatically clean the interior environment of the vehicle. In addition, he also revealed that CyberCab 2 may be launched in the future.
In Musk's view, the day of the press conference is a "day that will go down in history". He believes that Robotaxi is a "revolution in the transportation industry" that can change the entire world; But the capital market doesn't seem to think so - after the press conference, Tesla's US stock fell more than 8%, and its total market value evaporated nearly $67 billion in a single day.
Robotaxi business in China has taken shape, focusing on vehicle road collaboration
On the other hand, in the Chinese market, with the development of intelligent driving technology and the expansion of the new energy vehicle market, the commercial layout of some Chinese enterprises' autonomous driving has taken shape.
In January of this year, Xiaoma Zhixing launched the first commercial charging and operation service for unmanned taxis in the central urban area of a first tier city in China in Bao'an District, Shenzhen; Baidu's Apollo Go has also carried out fully automated driving service and testing in Beijing, Wuhan, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Shanghai and other cities; Meanwhile, in July of this year, 20 cities including Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen were designated as pilot cities for autonomous driving. Meanwhile, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, and Beijing are also planning to introduce relevant laws and regulations.
Not only that, Xiaopeng Motors, Geely's travel platform Caocao Travel, and GAC's Robotaxi travel platform Ruqi Travel have all publicly stated that Robotaxi business will become one of the company's important plans in the future, and they have all stated that they will complete commercial implementation by 2026.
Domestic enterprises are flourishing everywhere, while foreign enterprises are also showing their own talents. Apart from Tesla, Google has not fallen behind in this trend of autonomous driving. Its subsidiary Waymo has not only expanded its operations in the San Francisco Peninsula and Los Angeles, but also partnered with ride hailing giant Uber to launch hundreds of autonomous taxi services. It plans to cooperate with car companies such as General Motors and Hyundai to accelerate its layout in the field of autonomous driving. Data shows that as of June this year, Waymo autonomous vehicle has driven more than 22 million miles; In August of this year, Waymo's weekly order volume in San Francisco exceeded 100000 orders.
In the fiercely competitive Robotaxi track, the domestic market is focusing on "smart cars+smart roads" and creating distinctive solutions for vehicle road collaboration. Taking Apollo Go, a unit of Baidu, as an example, the sixth generation Apollo Go Unmanned Vehicle is equipped with the sixth generation auto drive system solution of Baidu Apollo, and has fully applied the "Baidu Apollo ADFM big model+hardware products+security architecture". Advanced sensors and computing platforms have greatly improved the safety of vehicles driving on urban roads.
It is reported that at present, Apollo Go has provided 7 million travel services, and is actively promoting global business and expanding overseas markets - it is reported that Apollo Go may deploy driverless taxis in Singapore, the Middle East and other places. This news has attracted widespread global attention, which also demonstrates the significant impact of China's Robotaxi business on a global scale.
Not only is Apollo Go fast, but also Xiaoma Zhixing, an autonomous driving enterprise, is speeding up its "sailing". It is reported that in March this year, Xiaoma Zhixing established a joint venture with South Korean company GemVaxLink to promote the layout of autonomous driving in South Korea; Subsequently, it signed a memorandum of understanding with the Grand Duchy of Luxembourg to promote the development of autonomous vehicle and technologies in Luxembourg.
According to Frost& Sullivan predicts that Robotaxi will achieve large-scale commercialization around 2026. It is expected that by 2030, the market size of Robotaxi in China and globally will reach 488.8 billion yuan and 834.9 billion yuan respectively, and by 2035, it will reach 1.6 trillion yuan and 3.2 trillion yuan respectively.
How to win the autonomous driving race track?
As a battleground for the military, Tesla's new product release of Robotaxi has attracted much attention. So, what impact does Tesla's entry have on the entire market?
Tao Ye, the manager of Zhineng Automobile, told reporters from Southern Metropolis Daily that Tesla's layout of autonomous driving business is not overnight. At this time, the release of new products has played a promoting role in the entire market. "Musk did not mention the relevant technical parameters at the press conference, so I am taking a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, but I believe that the era of autonomous driving will definitely come, but it may not be as fast as he said
Ji Xuehong, Director of the Automotive Industry Innovation Research Center at Northern Polytechnical University, also stated in an interview with Southern Metropolis Daily that Tesla's release of new products will drive the entire market forward. He believes that Tesla's entry into the market indicates that the autonomous driving market has entered a process of scale and commercialization. In the next 3 to 5 years, autonomous taxi technology will mature and may directly affect the entire ride hailing and rental vehicle market.
In the process of gradually forming a competitive landscape in the global autonomous driving market, how can enterprise players in the race track "run" to the forefront? Tao Ye bluntly stated that in order for companies to win on this track, they must first control costs, "survive first, and endure until the day when autonomous driving and unmanned driving fully emerge
Ji Xuehong believes that autonomous driving is a competition between artificial intelligence, automobiles, and technology, where competing companies are all strong in comprehensive strength; In market competition, some technology companies may lead the market with their technology and innovation. He also mentioned that cooperation between car manufacturers and technology companies could potentially gain market share in the field of autonomous driving. The autonomous driving technology routes adopted by different companies vary, but which technology will dominate in the future still needs market validation, "said Ji Xuehong.
Returning to domestic enterprises, there are also many experts who suggest that China's autonomous driving development should seize the window period, support the development of local enterprises, and give domestic enterprises a place on the global autonomous driving table; At the same time, accelerate the promotion of legislation, encourage technological innovation in enterprises, and make autonomous driving more scalable and autonomous.