Institution: The structural market of Hong Kong stocks remains the main trend, and short-term attention is focused on growth sectors that benefit from interest rate cuts
殿堂级话痨付
发表于 2024-9-9 11:37:46
1170
0
0
The current market is entering a critical window period of internal and external environment. Internally, the market has been widely concerned about recent policy changes in China, especially the measures for existing housing loans and mortgage transfers. According to calculations by the China International Capital Bank team, if the average mortgage interest rate for existing loans is reduced by about 54-60bp, taking an individual with a 30-year RMB loan of 1 million yuan as an example, based on equal principal and interest, the monthly repayment amount is expected to decrease by about 500 yuan. However, even if redeemed, existing mortgage loans only partially solve the pressure of early repayment and expenditure, and may not provide much help in boosting housing demand. Of course, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut is about to begin, which can further open up domestic interest rate cutting space, but the reduction may still be limited.
Externally, the September US presidential election and interest rate cut window are about to open. On Friday night, the number of non farm payroll workers in the United States did not completely quell market recession concerns, nor did it provide a clear signal of the magnitude of interest rate cuts. In addition, with the second debate of the US presidential election on September 10th, there have been many variables in the overseas market recently, and short-term uncertainty will have an impact on the market.
Fundamentally, the current economic growth momentum remains weak. From the perspective of micro enterprise profits, the profits of overseas Chinese funded stocks in the first half of the year increased slightly by 2.3% year-on-year, accelerating from 0.2% in 2023. But this is more cost driven, and demand is actually declining. In addition, companies generally adopt a contraction strategy, so the increase in ROE is more due to cost driven profit margins. The current market consensus expects an implied year-on-year growth of nearly 20% in the second half of the year, which we believe may be overly optimistic. However, it is worth noting that the profit of Hong Kong stocks is still better than that of A-shares by -3%, mainly because the profit structure of Hong Kong stocks is more advantageous: 1) the proportion of new economy in the industry structure is relatively high; 2) The contribution effect of top companies is more significant in terms of concentration. This once again supports our previous view that the elasticity of Hong Kong stocks is still greater than that of A-shares, and structural market conditions remain the main trend. Overall, the uncertainty of the domestic and international environment in the short term may continue to bring fluctuations, and we still believe that the elasticity of Hong Kong stocks is greater than that of A-shares. In terms of configuration, growth sectors that benefit from interest rate cuts in the short term may have higher elasticity, but in the medium term, the structural market with range fluctuations is still the main trend, corresponding to dividends and technological growth.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- Dialogue with Shen Peng, the founder and CEO of Shuidi Company: Internet insurance still has structural opportunities Online efficiency increase+offline quality improvement to create customer value
- US stock earnings season opens this week: "Seven giants" remain profit leaders. Five investment themes to follow
- Will "Stock God" still invest in Chinese companies? Buffett: The United States will be the main investment battlefield
- Economic issues remain the key to the US election! Concerns about stagflation continue to threaten Biden's re-election
- Four top private equity firms exposed their "US stock performance report": Pinduoduo is still at Hillhouse and Gao Yi, but Jinglin quietly reduces its holdings
- Bank of America predicts: US structural inflation will surge, commodity bull market has just begun!
- Insiders claim that WeChat and iPhone do not have a "one out of two" option, but the "Apple tax" game is still ongoing
- The scale of Chinese funded foreign debt issuance has exceeded 100 billion US dollars, and the interest rate cut cycle has opened up opportunities for structural investment, which still exist
- Google business unit may face spin off, US Department of Justice suggests' structural 'adjustments to reduce monopoly to court
- Nike and NBA renew contract until 2037, basketball remains the focus of sports equipment competition
-
随着“银十”结束,各家造车新势力都交出了一份亮眼的成绩单。 理想领跑10月新势力交付榜,鸿蒙智行重回4万辆,零跑、深蓝、极氪、小鹏等单月交付量均创新高,岚图、阿维塔、智己等实现破万,但哪吒却消失在 ...
- fanadam
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
为期超七周的大罢工终于落下帷幕。 当地时间11月4日,波音美国西海岸工厂工人们就改进后的合同提案投票。 随后,代表着波音超过33000名西雅图地区机械师的IAM工会经表决,以59%的同意票决定接纳波音提 ...
- cristianna
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
“新四化”的时代浪潮下,新能源汽车行业百家争鸣。伴随着自主品牌不断崛起,合资品牌当下的生存状况备受外界关注,如何打好电动化时代的突围战,成为合资品牌的新课题。 作为国内合资车企的代表之一,上汽 ...
- mbgg2797
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
证券时报网讯,热门中概股美股盘前普涨,小鹏汽车、哔哩哔哩涨近5%,蔚来涨超4%,阿里巴巴、拼多多涨超2%。
- p609520
- 3 天前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏