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Wall Street's sharp review of non farm payroll data: pragmatism and hope coexist, kicking the ball to next week's CPI

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With the highly anticipated US non farm payroll report on Friday failing to have a decisive effect on the magnitude of the Fed's September rate cut, various Wall Street analysts and economists have once again entered a stage of hundred schools of thought debate. Karen Roach, founder and chief investment officer of Discipline Fund, said on X: "I think the Federal Reserve would choose (to cut interest rates) by 25 basis points because they have always lagged behind the situation. Personally, I would lean towards 50 basis points because they have basically won inflation, and the macro trend now shows that the risk of economic downturn is greater." Jeffrey Rosenberg, a BlackRock fund manager who is well versed in "Federal Reserve psychology," also said that a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve now would send a signal of panic to the market. The market has been concerned about the Fed's slow interest rate cuts, so setting a 50 basis point target at this time would actually confirm this speculation - the market does not see this action as "policy makers taking early action", but rather concerns about an economic "hard landing".
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