The three major US stock indexes all recorded gains this week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting a new high and the S&P 500 index approaching historical highs.
Earlier in August, due to poor performance of multiple US economic data, especially the unusually weak labor market, investors' concerns about the US economy falling into recession intensified, causing the market to plummet sharply.
But with more positive data released, investor confidence gradually rebounded, and coupled with the Federal Reserve's signal of interest rate cuts, the three major US stock indices ultimately rose in August.
The most important economic data for overseas markets next week is the US August non farm payroll report scheduled to be released on Friday. Against the backdrop of significant easing of inflationary pressures, policymakers are now more concerned about the health of the job market, which will affect future monetary policy actions.
David Lefkowitz, head of US stocks at UBS Global Wealth Management, said that if the August non farm payroll report shows that the job market is steadily cooling, but the speed is not worrying, it may help support the overall market's rise.
The Federal Reserve will release the latest economic status brown book next Thursday, which is an important reference material for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting. The Federal Reserve will hold an interest rate meeting on September 17-18
Unless there is a major unexpected event, there is no doubt that the Federal Reserve will start its interest rate cut cycle in September. The problem lies in the magnitude of the rate cut. According to currency market pricing, investors currently believe that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points at that time is about 70%.
This week, due to Nvidia's Q3 revenue guidance not meeting the most optimistic market expectations, the stock experienced a significant decline. This may be another evidence that investors are shifting their attention away from technology stocks.
Analysis shows that since the release of lower than expected inflation reports in the United States on July 11th, the stock prices of the seven major US stocks have lagged behind the other 493 stocks in the S&P 500 index by 14 percentage points.
In terms of performance in August, the tech focused Nasdaq's 0.65% increase is significantly lower than the S&P 500's 2.28% and the Dow's 1.76%.
Jason Alonzo, portfolio manager at Harbor Capital, said that investors are unlikely to give up on tech stocks, especially if market volatility provides them with opportunities to buy on dips.
In terms of financial reports, with the release of Nvidia's financial report, the peak of the Q2 earnings season for the US stock market has also come to an end. The financial reports worth paying attention to next week include chip giant Broadcom and NIO, one of the three major new forces in Chinese car manufacturing.
(highlights of next week's financial report)
It is worth noting that the US stock market will be closed for one day next Monday due to the Labor Day holiday.
Overview of Important Overseas Economic Events Next Week (Beijing Time):
Monday (September 2nd): US stock market closed for one day, France/Germany/Eurozone August manufacturing PMI final values, UK August manufacturing PMI
Tuesday (September 3rd): US August ISM Manufacturing PMI, US July Construction Expenditure Monthly Rate, Switzerland Q2 GDP
Wednesday (September 4th): Australia's Q2 GDP, France/Germany/Eurozone August Service/Composite PMI final values, Eurozone July PPI, US July trade account, US July JOLTs job vacancies, Bank of Canada announces interest rate decision
Thursday (September 5th): Eurozone July retail sales data, US August ADP employment figures, US August S&P global services PMI final value, US August ISM non manufacturing PMI, Federal Reserve releases economic condition brown book
Friday (September 6th): US August seasonally adjusted non farm payroll, US August unemployment rate, Eurozone Q2 GDP year-end, Germany/France July seasonally adjusted industrial output monthly rate
