The main divergence in the technology sector of the US stock market at present
芊芊551
发表于 2024-8-21 23:27:15
168
0
0
Affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomics and elections, the technology sector of the US stock market has experienced significant fluctuations in the past month, leading to increased market concerns. Under the benchmark assumption of a macroeconomic soft landing, combined with our analysis of the GenAI technology wave, the US stock technology sector, and; Based on the analysis of the valuation level of weighted individual stocks, we conclude that the overall risk of the US technology sector is relatively limited. The high volatility in the market mainly comes from excessive concerns about the macro level, aversion to election uncertainty, and the crowded trading structure in the early stage. Reasonable valuation is one of the most important guarantees in the market. Excluding individual heavyweight stocks, the overall valuation of the US technology sector is currently in a reasonable period. Coupled with the steady upward performance cycle of the sector, we continue to maintain an optimistic view of the sector for the next 6-12 months.
US tech stocks: Multiple factors intertwined, with significant fluctuations in recent times.
In the past month and a half, the performance of the US stock market has fluctuated greatly, with multiple factors affecting the market including the mid year report season, expectations of interest rate cuts, the US presidential election, macro recession concerns, and the reversal of yen carry trades. The market has also begun to consider the possibility of the end of the bull market in the US technology sector over the past year. We have found that from the high point in mid July to the low point on August 7th, the SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor), Nasdaq, and S&P indices have cumulatively fallen by 27%, 14%, and 8%. With the release of relatively good PMI and employment data in the past two weeks, the market has gradually recovered from concerns about macro recession in the early stage. As of August 16th, the SOX, Nasdaq, and S&P indices have rebounded 13%, 8%, and 6% from their lows.
The root causes of market volatility include macro, election, AI, trading structure, etc.
1) Macro: The Federal Reserve's "data dependent" monetary policy path, coupled with the high volatility and unpredictability of short-term macro data, makes the market extremely sensitive to small changes in short-term macro data. Since the beginning of this year, the US stock market has traded macro situations such as downward inflation, stagflation, and economic recession;
2) Election: The anxiety of the election situation, coupled with the two parties' involvement in foreign trade and; Tariffs, Internal Taxes& The vastly different policy proposals at the level of industrial regulation have objectively increased market volatility;
3) AI: Faced with sustained massive CAPEX investments, the market is paying more attention to the specific progress of enterprise AI applications and the ROIC rationality of AI related CAPEX investments;
4) Transaction Structure: Over the past two years, technology giants, semiconductors, and; Hardware stands out, and the market is highly consistent and crowded in terms of trading direction and position structure. The low volatility of the market also leads to the accumulation of arbitrage positions across markets and asset classes.
The main contradictions in the current market are macro recession risk, concerns about AI sustainability, valuation level, etc.
At present, there are major differences in the market regarding US technology stocks; Concerns are focused on macroeconomic recession, the collapse of the AI technology wave, and overvalued sectors.
1) Macro concerns, combined with the second quarter reports and subsequent prospects of major US stock companies, indicate that a slowdown in economic growth and a soft landing are still the most likely scenarios at present. At the same time, compared to the past, the current benchmark interest rate of 5.25% by the Federal Reserve can also provide sufficient policy space;
2) The sustainability of AI, we judge that in the next 2-3 years, the global investment in AI computing power will still be sustainable. In the long run, it is necessary to solve the business cycle between upstream CAPEX investment and downstream application output of AI, which depends on the observation and verification of a series of core events (Special Report "Forward looking Research on Industry US Semiconductor&Hardware Special Report - How to View the Recent Adjustment of US Semiconductor and AI Computing Power", July 31, 2024);
3) At present, the valuation levels of the S&P 500 and SOX index PE (NTM) are 22.5X and 29.4X, respectively, which are higher than the average of the past decade (18.5X and 19.2X). We believe that this is mainly influenced by individual heavyweight stocks.
Valuation of the US technology sector: Overall in a reasonable period.
Based on the financial forecasting model of the Forward looking Group of CITIC Securities Research Department, we analyzed the valuation data of US stock technology giants, semiconductor hardware, and software SaaS sectors from bottom to top.
Risk factors:
The risk of unexpected economic recession in Europe and America; The uncertainty risk of the US presidential election; The risk of escalating global geopolitical conflicts; The risk of continuous tightening of regulation in the technology industry; The risk of AI technology progress falling short of expectations; Key technologies of enterprises, risks of talent loss, etc.
Investment advice:
Under the benchmark assumption of a macroeconomic soft landing, combined with our analysis of the AI technology wave, the US stock technology sector, and; Analysis of the Valuation Level of Weighted Stocks; Discussion: We conclude that the overall risk of the US technology sector is relatively limited, and the high volatility in the market mainly comes from excessive concerns about the macro level, aversion to election uncertainty, and crowded trading structures in the early stages. Reasonable valuation is one of the most important guarantees in the market. Excluding individual heavyweight stocks, the overall valuation of the US technology sector is currently in a reasonable period. Coupled with the steady upward performance cycle of the sector, we continue to maintain an optimistic view of the sector for the next 6-12 months.
CandyLake.com 系信息发布平台,仅提供信息存储空间服务。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
声明:该文观点仅代表作者本人,本文不代表CandyLake.com立场,且不构成建议,请谨慎对待。
猜你喜欢
- US tech stocks continue to rise, Tesla rises nearly 4%
- Popular Chinese concept stocks and US stocks fell before the market, while Tiger Securities fell more than 9%
- US energy stocks all fall, Schlumberger falls more than 4%
- Global market fund review: Hong Kong stock foreign capital flows out, US stock capital inflows accelerate
- Trump concept stocks continued to rise in the US stock market, with Phunware rising by over 16%
- The photovoltaic sector of the US stock market rose sharply ahead of the market, with new energy rising by over 15%
- Trump concept stocks fell in pre-market trading in the US stock market
- US stocks close down: Nasdaq falls more than 2%, large tech stocks generally decline
- New car making force: US stock market sees general gains before trading, Xiaopeng Motors rises by over 5%
-
随着“银十”结束,各家造车新势力都交出了一份亮眼的成绩单。 理想领跑10月新势力交付榜,鸿蒙智行重回4万辆,零跑、深蓝、极氪、小鹏等单月交付量均创新高,岚图、阿维塔、智己等实现破万,但哪吒却消失在 ...
- fanadam
- 1 小时前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
【科技记者古尔曼:苹果计划于12月第一周发布iOS 18.2系统更新 带来更多人工智能功能】科技记者古尔曼透露,苹果计划于12月第一周发布iOS 18.2系统更新。iOS 18.2将为iPhone 15 Pro机型和所有iPhone 16机型带来更多 ...
- cristianna
- 昨天 17:32
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
为期超七周的大罢工终于落下帷幕。 当地时间11月4日,波音美国西海岸工厂工人们就改进后的合同提案投票。 随后,代表着波音超过33000名西雅图地区机械师的IAM工会经表决,以59%的同意票决定接纳波音提 ...
- cristianna
- 5 小时前
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏
-
近日,爱立信中国区总裁方迎在接受《经济参考报》记者采访时表示,5G技术在全球范围内得到了迅速发展,但面临商业潜力未能充分挖掘、网络运营难度较以往更高两大挑战。因此,运营商在继续5G网络部署的同时,应关 ...
- blueskybb
- 昨天 15:05
- 支持
- 反对
- 回复
- 收藏