Big news in the field of smartphones!
On July 24th, it was reported that Apple is developing a foldable iPhone, expected to be launched in 2026. In recent months, Apple has been in contact with Asian suppliers to discuss the production of related accessories. If the foldable iPhone is really launched, it will be one of the biggest hardware design reforms in iPhone history.
In addition, India has given Apple a 'big gift'. Recently, India announced a reduction in the basic tariffs on mobile phones, printed circuit boards, and chargers from 20% to 15%. Analysts say that this will help Apple save $35 million to $50 million in tariffs annually.
Take a look at the detailed report!
Is the foldable iPhone coming?
According to multiple foreign media outlets citing technology media The Information, informed sources have revealed that Apple is researching the production of a foldable iPhone, which could be launched as early as 2026. In recent months, Apple has been in contact with Asian suppliers to discuss the production of related accessories.
According to reports, this phone will fold horizontally and have a similar appearance to Samsung's Galaxy Z Flip released in 2020, which is priced between $850 and $1900. However, it is common for Apple to cancel projects during the research and development phase, and it is currently uncertain whether a foldable phone will definitely be launched. But if it is really launched, it will be one of the biggest hardware design reforms in iPhone history.
According to informed sources, Apple has been developing a foldable smartphone since 2024, with a size similar to the existing iPhone when unfolded. In recent years, Apple has been applying for patents related to foldable products. Recently, according to a list published by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), Apple has obtained a design patent for a foldable iPhone, focusing on how to improve the durability of the foldable screen. Apple has also explored two solutions in its patents to improve the durability of foldable screens: the first is to reduce the thickness of folding and bending parts, making the glass thinner; The second is to make the other parts of the screen thicker.
According to reports, Apple has created an internal code name for its foldable phone project - V68, indicating that the manufacturing process is underway. Apple plans to produce two different sizes of foldable phones. Sources told The Information that a typical iPhone model typically takes about 24 months from start to finish, but foldable iPhones may take longer to complete.
Foldable smartphones equipped with AI capabilities are expected to generate demand for this iPhone manufacturer, as Apple has faced fierce competition from Samsung and Huawei in recent years. In early July, Samsung Electronics released its latest foldable smartphones globally - Galaxy Z Fold 6 and Galaxy Z Flip 6. These two phones are equipped with Galaxy AI technology for the first time, and Samsung expects this innovative feature to drive significant sales growth.
Xia Qingying, an analyst at Wanlian Securities, pointed out that AI upgrades are expected to further enhance the competitiveness of Apple's mobile phone products, bring users a more powerful AI function experience, and are expected to boost the demand for industry chain replacement.
Minsheng Securities analysts Li Zhe and Luo Song also stated that with the introduction of AI functions, Apple is expected to enter a replacement cycle by 2025. According to the CIRP research report, in the past year, as many as 71% of iPhone users have used their old devices for more than two years, compared to 63% in 2020. The previously postponed replacement demand is expected to gradually be released in the second half of the year and next year. In addition, the official introduction of Apple's AI function may attract more users who want to apply AI functions to replace their old phones. In terms of software, Apple's first generative AI model, Apple Intelligence, officially debuted in June. Apple Intelligence can only be used for iPhone 15 Pro or higher models; In terms of appearance, Apple is expected to release a lightweight iPhone 17 Slim by 2025.
It is worth noting that Apple recently received a "big gift package" in India. India announced on July 23 that it will reduce the basic tariffs on mobile phones, printed circuit boards, and chargers from 20% to 15%, effective from July 24. Analysts say this will help Apple save $35 million to $50 million in tariffs annually.
Foldable phone sales surge
According to TrendForce data, the sales of foldable phones have been growing, with a global shipment of 15.9 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 25%, accounting for approximately 1.4% of the smartphone market.
The report shows that although Samsung's market share of foldable screen models has decreased from 80% in 2022 to below 70% in 2023, it still maintains its position as the top seller of foldable screen models. In 2023, Huawei's shipment of foldable screen models has risen to 12%, while brands such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and Vivo have maintained a market share of less than 10%.
In addition, according to IDC data, the global shipment of foldable phones was 1.9473 million units in 2020 (penetration rate of 0.14%), and the shipment volume increased to 18.1 million units in 2023 (penetration rate of 2.14%); It is expected that the shipment volume will reach 45.7 million units in 2028, and the penetration rate of foldable phones is expected to reach 3.65%. The Chinese foldable phone market continues its growth trend, with shipments reaching 1.86 million units in the first quarter of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 83%, and a foldable phone penetration rate of 2.68%.
According to the latest report from market research firm Counterpoint Research, the global foldable smartphone market grew by 49% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, marking the highest growth rate in six quarters. Huawei has surpassed Samsung, which has been leading the market, for the first time and jumped to the top spot in global quarterly shipments.
Specifically, the top ten shipments in the first quarter were Huawei, Samsung, Honor, and Motorola, with respective market shares of 35%, 23%, 12%, and 11%; From the year-on-year changes in shipment volume, Huawei increased by 257%, Samsung decreased by 42%, Honor increased by 460%, and Motorola increased by 1473%. Huawei's previously launched foldable devices only had LTE devices, but by the first quarter of 2024, the proportion of Huawei's 5G foldable screen devices has skyrocketed to 84%.
Tianfeng Securities pointed out that downstream demand for foldable smartphones continues to increase during the decline of consumer electronics. With the continuous downward trend of industry price bands, it further promotes downstream demand and is expected to achieve a positive cycle. Continuously optimistic about the penetration of foldable screen smartphones in the next 3-5 years, the "bottleneck" links in the industry chain will still receive corresponding premiums for a period of time. In addition, we are optimistic about the domestic substitution logic in photoresist and high-frequency and high-speed CCL upstream raw materials.
Folding screen phone buyers are more concerned about the lightweight grip, hardware configuration, and software functions of folding screen phones. Among them, the lightweight grip is the most concerned factor for users, and the lightweight grip of foldable screen phones is mainly reflected in two indicators: body weight and thickness. Since 2019, major global foldable phone manufacturers have released multiple foldable phones with continuously upgraded and iterated performance. In July 2024, the world's three major mobile phone manufacturers (Samsung, Honor, Xiaomi) successively released new foldable phones. The new foldable phones have significant improvements in weight, thickness, and performance, and are highly praised by consumers. They are expected to continue the high visual appeal of foldable screens.
Guolian Securities stated that as foldable phones gain more recognition from consumers, it is expected that the penetration rate of foldable phones in China will reach 5.5% by 2028, and the shipment volume is expected to reach 16.43 million units.