On July 4th, all three major stock indices in Hong Kong closed slightly higher. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.28% to 18028.28 points. The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 0.63% to 3649.67 points. The Hang Seng China Enterprise Index rose 0.23% to close at 6470.86 points. The market transaction reached HKD 90.796 billion. The net purchase amount of southbound funds is HKD 945 million.
Ctrip Group rose 4.38%, Kangshifu Holdings rose 4.27%, and Ideal Automobile rose 3.92%, leading the rise of blue chips.
Bank groups strengthened, with Construction Bank up 3.32%, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China up 2.11%, China Merchants Bank up 1.79%, and Bank of China up 1.31%.
Oil stocks rose sharply, with China Petroleum&Chemical Corporation up 2.66% and China Petroleum Corporation up 1.55%.
From the perspective of industry performance, the Hang Seng Industry Index has fluctuated throughout the day. The raw material industry index increased by 1.81%, the energy industry index increased by 0.78%, and the information technology industry index increased by 0.75%. In terms of decline, the healthcare industry index fell by 1.19%, the real estate and construction industry index fell by 0.43%, and the telecommunications industry index fell by 0.41%.
From the market perspective, the Wind concept sector mostly rose. The cobalt metal index rose 4.19%, the Foxconn index rose 4.05%, and the security monitoring index rose 3.71%. In terms of decline, the Internet credit index led the decline by 4.85%, the short video index by 2.48%, and the Chinese property management index by 2.28%.
Da Mo is optimistic
Ctrip is soaring
As summer vacation approaches, the leading tourism stock Ctrip has been bullish by Morgan Stanley, and its stock price opened high and rose sharply, up 4.75% at one point, closing at HKD 395.60 for the entire day, up 4.38%.
Morgan Stanley released a research report stating that it is optimistic about Ctrip's third quarter guidance, especially for long-distance and inbound and outbound travel. It believes that the group can embrace summer travel, benefiting from visa free policies, the resumption of most flights, and the rise in stock prices in the first normalized summer after China's reopening. Morgan Stanley cited data from Ctrip that as of July 2nd, the number of inbound orders increased by 100% year-on-year, driven by a 150% increase in order volume from 14 visa free countries or regions.
Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that the 2024 Summer Games will begin on July 1st, and overall, the trend of price increase and decrease in the summer tourism market this year is still continuing, reflecting the resilience of residents' demand for travel. Overall, the trend of volume increase and price decrease since the opening of the epidemic still exists in the summer tourism market, but Galaxy Securities believes that the influencing factors behind ticket prices in domestic and international markets are different. Among them, the decline in domestic airfare prices is expected to be more affected by macroeconomic factors, while the decline in international airfare prices is more related to the recovery of the supply chain. Galaxy Securities believes that the popularity of the Northwest tourism market has increased and is expected to become a hot topic.
"Weixiaoli" surged
On July 4th, the three leading new energy vehicle companies in China, Future, Xiaopeng Motors, and Ideal Motors, continued to rise sharply, with gains of 5.03%, 4.15%, and 3.92%, respectively.
After the release of sales data in June, the stock price of Weixiaoli continued to soar, with Ideal rising by 15.88% in three trading days, NIO rising by 17%, and Xiaopeng rising by 13.5%.
The Passenger Car Market Information Joint Branch of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as the CAAM) has released a report stating that the market advantages of new energy leading enterprises have continued to expand in recent times, and the market differentiation under different rights of oil and electricity has intensified, leading to a continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy. According to preliminary data, the sales volume of new energy wholesale manufacturers with over 10000 units in the national passenger car market in May 2024 accounted for 88.8% of the overall monthly sales volume of new energy passenger cars in May. These enterprises estimated their sales volume to be 860000 units in June, and based on the proportion of the previous month's structure, the national sales volume of new energy passenger cars in June is predicted to be around 970000 units.
The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) stated that based on preliminary monthly data, it is estimated that wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicle manufacturers in China in June will reach 970000 units, a year-on-year increase of 28% and a month on month increase of 8%.
The collective rise of electric vehicles is closely related to the list of pilot cities for the "vehicle road cloud integration" application of intelligent connected vehicles announced by five departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on July 3. This list covers core cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, as well as multiple provincial and prefecture level cities, achieving extensive coverage of cities at different levels and types. This measure is regarded by the market as an important milestone in the development of intelligent connected vehicles, indicating that the large-scale construction of intelligent connected vehicle road clouds in China is expected to be officially launched, entering a new stage of large-scale implementation and development.
On the morning of July 4th, spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, He Yadong, was asked about the progress of negotiations between the working teams of China and the European Union on the imposition of tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. He stated that China has repeatedly expressed strong opposition to the EU's anti subsidy investigation on Chinese electric vehicles and advocates for proper handling of economic and trade frictions through dialogue and negotiation. On June 22nd, Minister Wang Wentao held a video meeting with the Executive Vice Chairman and Trade Commissioner of the European Commission, Dong Brovskis. Both sides agreed to immediately initiate negotiations on the proper handling of the case based on the two pillars of facts and rules. As of now, multiple rounds of consultations have been held at the technical level between China and Europe. At present, there is still a 4-month window before the final ruling. We hope that the European side and China can move towards each other, show sincerity, and accelerate the negotiation process. Based on facts and rules, we can reach a solution that is acceptable to both sides as soon as possible.
Looking ahead to 2024-2026, Xinda Securities predicts that the elimination race in the automotive industry will accelerate, and car companies will compete in terms of scale, cost, and technology. The share of joint venture brands may decrease from below 40% to below 20%, and the 20% share released will correspond to the growth space of independent brands. For the whole vehicle sector, Xinda Securities believes that the victory or defeat in the first half of electrification is already determined, and the differentiated competition in the future lies in intelligence, globalization, and segmented market layout, competing in the second half.
