Recently, founder of Dongfang Port, Dan Bin, revealed on social media that a fund manager of the company has tripled the short position of the Nasdaq 100ETF with less than 5% of his position. He said that short selling behavior needs to be careful. He has been investing for 32 years and has only been long and not short. When he is not optimistic, he prefers to spend time in a light position.
It is worth mentioning that the short selling operations of fund managers under Dongfang Port are a microcosm of the current institutional concerns about the US stock market. In the view of many industry insiders, the slowdown in economic growth and high inflation have suppressed the trend of the US stock market. Looking at the global market, the cost-effectiveness of Chinese assets is constantly highlighted.
In April of this year, market participants noticed that the performance of several products under Dongfang Harbor was highly similar to the stock price trend of Nvidia, which sparked speculation that Danbin may have a heavy stake in Nvidia. Regarding this, Danbin frequently spoke out on social media platforms, sharing his views on Nvidia.
Fund managers under the Oriental Harbor Group shorted the Nasdaq ETF
On June 4th, Dan Bin stated that among the 8 fund managers at Dongfang Port, one fund manager held less than 5% of their positions and shorted the Nasdaq 100ETF three times, and couldn't help but discuss with him. "I said to be careful! US stocks are long and short, suitable for long positions! The logic of each investment should withstand scrutiny and historical testing." Dan Bin said, respecting the personal decisions of fund managers.
Regarding investment, Dan Bin stated that he has been investing for 32 years and Dongfang Port has been established for 20 years. As of now, he has only been long and not short. For those who are not optimistic, they will take a light position to get through the crisis stage. He believes that investment needs to examine whether the philosophy adhered to and the company chosen meet the requirements of integrating knowledge and action. If so, persist, and if there are problems, correct them.
It is worth mentioning that from the market trend, short selling the Nasdaq ETF has indeed been ineffective in recent times.
According to Choice data, as of June 4th, ProShares UltraPro Short QQ (code SQQQ) has retreated by over 16% in May alone, and has accumulated over 25% since the beginning of this year. It is reported that SQQQ is an ETF with triple leverage betting on the decline of the NASDAQ 100 index, which attracted a large amount of US dollar funds to buy earlier this month.
Institutions are more optimistic about the cost-effectiveness of Chinese assets
The discussion between Danbin and his company's fund manager is a microcosm of the current institutional concerns about the US stock market. In the eyes of many industry insiders, the increasing uncertainty in the US stock market has highlighted the cost-effectiveness of Chinese assets on a global scale.
"From a fundamental perspective, the United States is currently experiencing slow economic growth and high inflation, with expectations of interest rate cuts being suppressed by high inflation, which is a concern for many institutional investors." A private equity analyst in Shanghai said that since the beginning of this year, the US stock market has risen strongly, and the overall valuation is relatively high, posing a risk of short-term correction.
A top private equity insider said that some economic data in the United States is weak and needs to be closely monitored. However, it is still too early to consider short selling, and the Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts is likely to have an impact in the future. However, looking at global assets, the cost-effectiveness of Chinese assets is currently more worth paying attention to.
According to Zhang Wenlong, General Manager of Jinyu Investment, the 10-year yield of US bonds has been fluctuating at high levels recently, suppressing overseas markets such as the United States, Japan, Europe, and India that performed well last year. Moreover, the sustained rise of most overseas stock markets has already overdrawn the local economic foundation. Some overseas investors voluntarily withdraw their investments back to markets with higher cost-effectiveness, and Chinese assets that have been hovering at low levels for a long time have become a common choice for global investors.
In addition, Zhang Wenlong stated that the improvement in market expectations for the fundamentals of the Chinese economy has enhanced the cost-effectiveness of Chinese assets, especially the improvement in data in China's manufacturing, consumption and other sectors in the first quarter of this year, as well as the state of microeconomic operation, has gradually increased the expectations of overseas investors for China's macroeconomy. The performance of Chinese assets, especially Hong Kong stocks, is worth looking forward to in the future.
Wangzheng Asset also stated that various unfavorable factors and pessimistic expectations have almost been reflected in the stock price, and more and more positive signals are gradually emerging. Moreover, according to the annual report data, in 2023, the FCFF (Free Cash Flow) of all A-shares (excluding finance) reached a historic high, and the ability of high-quality enterprises to create free cash flow continued to strengthen. The enhancement of enterprise value was not fully reflected in the current stock price. Therefore, the company has gradually increased its position since February, and its current position is at a relatively high level.
Nvidia rises, but Dan Bin speaks out
Recently, Nvidia's stock price has surged, sparking market discussions. The strong performance of this wave of stock prices has brought significant performance improvements to many fund products holding Nvidia stocks.
In April of this year, market participants noticed that the performance of several products under Dongfang Harbor was highly similar to the stock price trend of Nvidia, which sparked speculation that Danbin may have a heavy stake in Nvidia. Regarding this, Danbin candidly stated on social media, "The decline of Nvidia has had an impact on us."
Recently, Danbin frequently spoke on social media platforms, sharing his views on NVIDIA. On May 30th, Dan Bin made a prediction regarding the stock price trend of Nvidia on May 29th, stating that "it is estimated that this position will fluctuate slightly.".
On May 29, when replying to netizens, Dan Bin said, "In the era of artificial intelligence, if it is like the first three eras - the electronic hardware era, the Internet era and the mobile Internet, it will probably go through a cycle of more than 10 years. The leading enterprises in each cycle have a 10 times increase in market value. If the law continues, we will probably see the first company with a market value of 10 trillion dollars in human history between 2033 and 2043. I don't know who it is, but Nvidia has the opportunity to..."
In an internal exchange in April this year, Dan Bin also expressed similar views. He believes that every technological revolution will bring about a market value increase of more than 10 times for related leading enterprises. For example, in the era of mobile Internet, Apple, Google and other companies have achieved huge growth, and artificial intelligence is a more disruptive new technology, so the leading enterprises benefiting from technological progress should also have 10 times of market value growth. So, artificial intelligence is the world's greatest opportunity, and it is highly likely that companies with a market value of $10 trillion will emerge in ten years.
