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China International Capital Corporation (CICC): The Federal Reserve may only cut interest rates once this year, possibly in the fourth quarter

六月清晨搅
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According to the China International Capital Corporation (CICC) research report, the US CPI in April increased by 3.4% year-on-year (previous value of 3.5%), while the core CPI increased by 3.6% year-on-year (previous value of 3.8%), both slowing down from the previous month and in line with market expectations. From the perspective of sub items, prices of used cars, furniture and household appliances continue to decline, and service inflation remains sticky. This set of inflation data is of great significance to the market as it reduces concerns about "secondary inflation", helps to enhance risk appetite, and drives the US stock market up. However, CICC believes that a month of data will not prompt the Federal Reserve to quickly turn to interest rate cuts. Instead, the slowdown in inflation has made financial conditions more relaxed, and the future economic and inflation elasticity has increased. The possibility of "not landing" has increased, as has happened in the past few months. Reiterating previous views: The Federal Reserve may only cut interest rates once this year, possibly in the fourth quarter. US bond yields will continue to remain high, and the attractiveness of US stocks may continue to be stronger than bonds.
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