On Tuesday, the three major U.S. stock indexes recorded their third consecutive day of gains, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index surging 3%. This market performance is not unrelated to recent dovish comments from several senior Federal Reserve officials.
On Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Bill Bostic and Minnesota Fed President Neel Kashkari both argued that the rise in Treasury yields means "the Fed has less to do." As the market cooled expectations of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and bought safe-haven Treasury bonds, Treasury yields fell sharply across the board on Tuesday, with yields falling more than 10 basis points across the board.
Then on Wednesday, the Fed will release the minutes of its September rate-setting meeting. If there is a description of the Fed's "one more rate increase" in the minutes, it will reinforce the consensus that the market has formed in these two days.
Wall Street stocks rose for the third straight day in a row, the collective surge
Local time on Tuesday (October 10), European and American stock markets closed up. Among them, the three major U.S. stock indexes all closed up, as of the close, the Dow rose 0.4% to 33,739.3 points, the S&P 500 index rose 0.52% to 4,358.24 points, and the Nasdaq rose 0.58% to 13,562.84 points. It was also the third straight day of gains for the three major U.S. stock indexes.
Specifically, technology stocks were mixed, with Apple down 0.34%, Amazon up 0.95%, Netflix down 3.27%, Google down 0.26%, Facebook up 1.09%, and Microsoft down 0.43%. Banks rose collectively, with jpmorgan up 0.62%, Goldman up 0.64%, Citi up 1.79%, Morgan Stanley up 0.28%, Bank of America up 2.66% and Wells Fargo up 0.29%.

Popular Chinese stocks rose, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index gaining 3.14%. In terms of specific stocks, Reneng New Energy rose 14.34%, Nengchain Intelligent power rose 12.17%, Tucson Future rose 11.48%, Jinko Energy rose 8.93%, Shengmi Semiconductor rose 8.01%, Yigatong Technology rose 7.95%, Bilibili rose 7.91%, Youdao rose 7.28%, Jinshan Cloud rose 7.26%, Jinneng Energy rose 8.93%. Big New Energy rose 7.11%.
In addition, in the European market, the three major European stock indexes also closed up. Germany's DAX was up 1.95% at 15,423.52, France's CAC40 was up 2.01% at 7,162.43 and Britain's FTSE 100 was up 1.82% at 7,628.21.

Fed officials speak again
This week, a number of Federal Reserve officials will speak in public. A growing number of senior Federal Reserve officials believe the tightening of financial conditions caused by the surge in Treasury yields is a substitute for further increases in benchmark interest rates, according to a number of senior officials.
On Tuesday, Atlanta Fed President Eric Bostic reiterated his view that the Fed no longer needs to raise interest rates. Current monetary policy is restrictive enough to bring inflation back to the 2 per cent target. The Fed should stop raising rates and focus now on how long it will keep them high. He said last week that the Fed should keep interest rates high for a long time to allow inflation to fall back to its 2 percent target.
Asked about the recent hot question of how the sharp rise in US Treasury yields will affect monetary policy, Bostic said the level of interest rates is clearly restrictive. The U.S. economy is slowing, and many of the effects of the Fed's rate hikes have yet to be felt. At the same time, Bostic said the economic impact of the Israeli conflict is uncertain, and the Fed needs to be flexible in dealing with risks and be ready to adapt to changes.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari sounded a cautious note, saying he did not believe the surge in long-term Treasury yields would reduce the need for further rate hikes, saying it depended on what had driven the recent rise in borrowing costs. If the economy is more resilient, further rate rises may be needed; The economy and the job market have been more resilient than expected, but it is too early to declare a soft landing.
"New Fed News Agency" : A pause in interest rate hikes in November is almost certain
Nick Timiraos, a prominent financial journalist known as the "new Fed News agency," wrote on Tuesday that the rise in Treasury yields could extend the Fed's pause in interest rate hikes. Fed officials have indicated that a rise in long-term interest rates could substitute for further Fed rate hikes. A sustained rise in long-term Treasury yields could bring an anticlimactic end to the Fed's historic rate-hike cycle.
On balance, Mr Timiraos said recent comments from top Fed officials suggested the central bank would hold rates steady at its October 31-November 1 meeting. Fed officials could then wait for economic and financial developments over the next month before deciding whether to raise rates in December. By December, officials will be able to see whether the recent tightening in financial conditions has persisted, and whether the recent progress in inflation has persisted.
Even after the Fed has finished raising rates, officials are unlikely to formally announce a halt to rate hikes. They have repeatedly marveled at the resilience of the U.S. economy and have been willing to leave the door open for further rate hikes.
Us Treasury yields fell sharply across the board on Tuesday as expectations of a Fed rate rise cooled and safe-haven government bonds were bought. The yield on the more monetary-sensitive two-year Treasury note fell as much as 15 basis points, breaking through the 5 percent mark to 4.93 percent. The 10-year yield fell as much as 18 basis points to 4.62 percent; The yield on the 30-year bond fell 16 basis points to 4.80 percent.
International oil markets turned negative on Tuesday
In the international crude oil market, after jumping more than 4% yesterday, international oil prices fell more than $1 on Tuesday. Wti November futures settled down 41 cents, or 0.47 percent, at $85.97 a barrel. Brent December futures settled down 50 cents, or 0.57 percent, at $87.65 a barrel.
Analysts said that in addition to focusing on the demand outlook, investors are also worried about geopolitical conflicts hurting crude oil supplies in the Middle East, although Israel's crude oil production is very small, and the market fears that an escalation of the conflict will worsen the expected supply deficit this year.
Daan Struyven, chief oil analyst at Goldman Sachs Research, said: "In the early stages of conflict situations, uncertainty is still increasing and information is not yet complete. But for now, global oil production has not been affected, and near-term crude oil supply and demand balances and inventories may not be immediately significantly affected, which tend to be the main fundamental factors affecting oil prices. As a result, we maintain our previous oil price forecast, with Brent rising gradually from $85 per barrel on Friday to $100 per barrel by June 2024. Nevertheless, over time, developments in the conflict situation could put pressure on global crude oil supplies."
John Kilduff, partner at energy hedge fund Again Capital in New York, said the crisis could push oil prices to what level depends on the impact on crude production and exports: "In other words, how many barrels are we talking about, And how much further oil supply is being tightened when OPEC+ cuts are already tightening global supply."