The US government is issuing large subsidies one after another to attract chip manufacturers to invest in building factories in the US.
On April 8th, the US Department of Commerce announced that it would provide up to $6.6 billion in subsidies to TSMC. This will support TSMC in building three new cutting-edge chip factories in Arizona, USA, with an investment scale of over 65 billion US dollars.
This is the fifth subsidy issued by the Biden administration under the Chip and Science Act in the United States. The US Department of Commerce stated that it is expected to announce more subsidy plans within 2024. Under the temptation of a $39 billion manufacturing subsidy bill, the department stated that it has received over 630 letters of intent, over 180 pre - and formal applications for large supply chain projects (NOFO1), and over 160 small supplier concept plans (NOFO2).
US President Biden stated that in recent years, US semiconductor production capacity has decreased from nearly 40% globally to nearly 10%. The bill aims to revive the semiconductor manufacturing industry and employment in the United States.
Chinese Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong recently responded to relevant questions by stating that the semiconductor industry is highly globalized, and after decades of development, it has formed an industrial pattern of "you have me, I have you", which is the result of a comprehensive effect of resource endowment, market laws, and other factors.
"For a period of time, the United States has generalized the concept of national security, abused export controls and other measures, and artificially fragmented the global semiconductor industry chain. The United States provides huge subsidies and tax incentives to the local chip industry, and some clauses force companies to abandon China and pursue the United States, which is clearly discriminatory and seriously violates market laws and international economic and trade rules, and will cause distortion to the global semiconductor industry chain," He Yadong said.
The chip subsidy program in the United States
Since the end of last year, the US government has initiated funding for the Chip and Science Act.
This bill provides $52.7 billion for semiconductor research and development, manufacturing, and labor development in the United States. This includes $39 billion in manufacturing incentives, $2 billion for traditional chips used in automotive and defense systems, $13.2 billion for research and labor development, and $500 million for international information and communication technology security and semiconductor supply chain activities. The plan also provides a 25% investment tax credit for capital expenditures in semiconductor and related equipment manufacturing.
In December 2023, British defense contractor BAE Systems received the first $35 million subsidy. In January of this year, Microchip Technology received $162 million. In February, chip manufacturer Global Foundries received $1.5 billion. On March 20th, American chip company Intel received up to $8.5 billion in direct funding, the fourth and largest grant under the bill to date.
In addition to the proposed direct funding of up to $6.6 billion, the bill's program office will also provide approximately $5 billion in loans to TSMC's factory construction in Arizona. The bill has prepared up to $75 billion in loans, and Intel has previously received up to $11 billion in loans.
According to the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA), from May 2020 to March 2024, driven by the Chip and Science Act, the United States announced 82 new semiconductor ecosystem projects, including the construction of new semiconductor manufacturing facilities (wafer fabs), expansion of existing factories, and facilities to supply materials and equipment for chip manufacturing.
In addition, according to insiders, the Biden administration also plans to announce a subsidy of over $6 billion to Samsung in the near future. This funding will be used to build four facilities in Texas, including a $17 billion chip manufacturing plant announced by Samsung in 2021, a new factory, an advanced packaging facility, and a research and development center.
A new prosperity cycle?
The large investment plan of the United States is accompanied by a rebound in the global semiconductor market. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS) predicts that after experiencing a downturn in 2023, the global semiconductor market will grow by 13.1% in 2024, thanks to the growth in demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips, with sales reaching a record high of $588.36 billion.
Li Xuan, a senior analyst in the technology industry at Haitong Securities, told First Financial reporters that this round of semiconductor cycle actually began before the epidemic, and there has been a market phenomenon of supply shortage since 2020. The rise in global semiconductor sales continued until around August 2022, after which sales growth turned negative year-on-year. After experiencing a decline of about 16-17 months, global semiconductor sales growth fully turned positive year-on-year in the first quarter of this year.
"The current growth is accompanied by destocking and the rise of AI, and we believe that the entire semiconductor industry can achieve restorative growth in 2024," said Li Xuan.
According to WSTS data, in 2023, due to weak demand for memory chips, the global semiconductor sales market size decreased by 9.4% to $520.13 billion. But the recovery has already begun since late last year, for example, Dutch chip manufacturing equipment manufacturer ASML recorded a record high of 9.2 billion euros in orders in the fourth quarter of last year.
WSTS stated that in 2024, memory chips will lead the overall market growth, with sales expected to increase by 44.8% compared to the previous year. The logic chip market is expected to grow by 9.6%, while the image sensor chip market is expected to increase by 1.7%.
By region, the Americas region is expected to achieve its maximum growth in 2024, with a growth rate of 22.3%. The Asia Pacific market, as a place where many companies produce smartphones and personal computers, is expected to grow by 12%. The sales volume of products in the Japanese market is relatively small, so the growth rate will only be 4.4%.
Li Xuan believes that "the driving force of this storage chip cycle is mainly due to downstream demand, such as the release of new AI smartphones and artificial intelligence personal computers (AIPCs). This will ultimately lead to the recovery of the storage and packaging industry chain, followed by the design leader in the midstream and the update of equipment materials."
The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) announced in early April that the global semiconductor industry's total sales in February 2024 were $46.2 billion, an increase of 16.3% from $39.7 billion in February 2023. From a regional perspective, year-on-year sales in China (28.8%), the Americas (22.0%), and Asia Pacific/All Other Regions (15.4%) have all increased, but year-on-year sales in Europe (-3.4%) and Japan (-8.5%) have decreased.
SIA President and CEO John Neuffer said, "Global semiconductor sales in February were far higher than the total sales in the same period last year, with the largest increase since May 2022. It is expected that market growth will continue for the remainder of this year."