From the launch of the world's first foldable flexible phone by Ruoyu Technology to now, foldable screen phones have gone through more than five years of development. The once underestimated category has become one of the essential models for major mainstream phone manufacturers. Recently, even Apple, which has been inactive, has been exposed to have obtained relevant patents and may be released in 2026 or 2027.
It has to be said that the presence of foldable screen phones in public life is becoming increasingly strong. Recently, the reporter saw advertisements for foldable screen phones at transportation hubs such as Capital International Airport, Guangzhou Baiyun Airport, Hangzhou Xiaoshan Airport, and Beijing Metro, including OPPO Find N3 Flip, Huawei Pocket 2, vivo X Fold3, and other models. At the same time, more and more consumers are using foldable screen phones around them.
It should be noted that foldable smartphones only have a market share of 1.4% in the global market, and they must have a reason to stand tall in the fiercely competitive smartphone market for many years. Industry insiders point out that in addition to the product form that to a certain extent meets the imagination of consumers, high profits and high growth are also the reasons why mobile phone manufacturers cannot give up on this category.
A breakthrough tool for non iOS phones
In 2023, amidst the global smartphone market downturn, Apple, with its strong brand influence and large fan base, won the annual number one position for the first time in history. According to a report released by market research firm IDC, Apple became the world's best-selling smartphone brand last year with a shipment volume of 234.6 million units and a market share of 20.1%. This is also the first time since 2010 that a company other than Samsung has won the top spot in the smartphone market.
However, even as powerful as Apple, this company still has no place in a niche field of smartphones, which is foldable screen phones. Of course, this is not because Apple lacks competitive strength, but rather because more than five years have passed since the first foldable screen phone was launched in 2018, and Apple has not yet entered this field.
Communication expert Ma Jihua told a reporter from Huaxia Times that Apple has not entered the foldable screen phone market, which may be mainly due to two reasons: firstly, since the death of Apple co-founder Steve Jobs, the company has changed its original development strategy, no size markup on the screen, and has shifted to making wearable devices its focus of development; Secondly, currently, foldable screen smartphones have not yet become mainstream models in the market, and Apple's sales of straight phones have always been good, so the company is not willing to explore related topics before the market is mature.
However, now Apple may have to change its decision. Recently, a list released by the US Trademark and Patent Office showed that Apple has obtained a technology patent related to foldable screens, covering a variety of products including iPhones, tablets, laptops, and more.
There are reports that Apple has transferred some core members of the Apple Vision Pro team to the foldable screen project team, while internal executives have revealed that the release of the first foldable screen iPhone will be delayed until 2026, with a focus on more advanced technology and expected to be thinner and lighter than competitor models. However, there have been reports recently that Apple has adjusted its foldable iPhone release plan to the first quarter of 2027.
A reporter from Huaxia Times interviewed Apple about issues related to foldable screen phones, but as of press release, the other party has not provided a response.
Due to the lack of strong competition from Apple, the foldable screen smartphone market is currently mainly dominated by non iOS mainstream smartphone manufacturers such as Samsung, Huawei, and Xiaomi.
According to a report from TrendForce Consulting, the global shipment of foldable screen smartphones in 2023 was approximately 15.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 25%. Among them, Samsung maintained its first position with 66.4% market share; Huawei ranks second with a market share of 11.9%; Xiaomi's foldable screen mobile phone shipments rank third in the world, with a market share of 5.4%.
In the Chinese market, according to IDC data, Huawei's market share in the foldable screen mobile phone market reached 37.4% in 2023, ranking first; OPPO gained 18.3% market share and ranked second in the overall foldable screen market; Honor ranks third with a market share of 17.7%; Samsung gained 11% market share and ranked fourth; Vivo ranks fifth with a market share of 9.7%.
The irresistible temptation of profit
In terms of market share, foldable screen smartphones still only account for 1.4% of the global smartphone market after more than five years of development, but manufacturers are still flocking to them, which involves multiple key factors.
Firstly, foldable screen phones to some extent meet the expectations of a considerable number of consumers for the form of their phones. Communication expert Ma Jihua told a reporter from Huaxia Times that the reason why mobile phone companies are choosing foldable screens is mainly because they see a trend in the development of mobile phone forms, which is to seek a balance between portability and large screens. With the improvement of network capabilities and the enrichment of applications, large screen foldable screens show more flexible characteristics, which is one of the inevitability of their existence. Therefore, these companies do not want to give up this market. "And in the case where other manufacturers are doing it, no matter which manufacturer, they are afraid of losing this market opportunity. If foldable phones become the mainstream form of future phones, manufacturers who do not 'follow the trend' will lose their survival space."
Secondly, in terms of data, foldable screen smartphones have shown advantages with greater development prospects.
The reporter noticed that on the one hand, while the global smartphone market is in a stage of sluggish growth, foldable screen smartphones have been in a state of significant growth, especially in the Chinese market. According to a market report released by IDC, the total shipment volume of foldable screen smartphones in China in 2023 was approximately 7.007 million units, a year-on-year increase of 114.5%, with a continuous increase of over 100% for four consecutive years.
On the other hand, the high profits of foldable screen smartphones make mobile phone companies unable to stop. Ma Jihua pointed out that after more than five years of development, the foldable screen mobile phone market has actually become relatively mature, and users have also reached a certain scale. The cost of original components has also decreased compared to the beginning. However, in fact, from the price of product releases in the past two years, there has not been a significant decrease overall, so the profit margin of manufacturers is still relatively large.
In terms of smartphone profit, other smartphone manufacturers are just a small niche compared to Apple. According to data released by market research firm Counterpoint, in 2022, with a sluggish global smartphone market and a significant decline in shipments, Apple captured 85% of global smartphone profits, while other smartphone manufacturers divided the remaining 15%. By 2023, over 90% of the profits in the smartphone industry will be captured by Apple.
Looking at Apple's dominant profit in the mobile phone market, other phone manufacturers will naturally not be indifferent. From the actions of many manufacturers in recent years to transform towards the high-end market, we can see a glimpse. Therefore, they will naturally not let go of high profit margin foldable screen phones. Xiaomi Group President Lu Weibing announced at the 2023 annual performance communication meeting that in terms of high-end products, it is necessary to break through the price range of 6000 to 10000 yuan in 2024, and develop a high-end strategy globally while expanding its scale.
Previously, some media outlets dismantled Samsung's "Galaxy Z Fold 4", Xiaomi's "MIX FOLD", and Huawei's "Mate Xs" for cost comparison. The estimated result was that Galaxy Z Fold had a direct gross profit margin of 60%, "MIX FOLD" had a direct gross profit margin of 61%, and "Mate Xs" had a direct gross profit margin of as high as 78%.
However, regarding whether the profit margin of foldable screen phones has indeed reached this level and how much the specific profit margin is, a reporter from Huaxia Times interviewed manufacturers such as Huawei, Xiaomi, and vivo, but as of the time of publication, none of these companies have provided a response.
In Ma Jihua's view, even without considering profits, the development of foldable screen phones is also a process of technological innovation. These mobile phone companies have achieved breakthroughs in many technologies through the research and development of foldable screens, so the research and development of foldable screen phones is of certain significance to them.