Amidst the recent high consolidation of US stock AI leader Nvidia, the renowned investment bank Goldman Sachs has launched a study this week: If Nvidia's strong surge is seen as the first stage of the US stock "AI boom," then the entire set of AI trading should be able to be further divided into three broad stages.
Goldman Sachs concluded that the first stage of AI speculation in the US stock market was characterized by the prosperity of NVIDIA. Although the stock price has nearly doubled since 2023, Nvidia's rolling P/E ratio has not changed significantly compared to the beginning of 2023 due to a surge in revenue.
Of course, the focus of Goldman Sachs' stock strategy team in this report is not on Nvidia, but on which industries and concepts of listed companies are expected to become hot topics in the capital market with the gradual extension of "AI trading".
Phase 2: AI Infrastructure/AI Infrastructure
Goldman Sachs pointed out that the second phase of AI trading will affect infrastructure companies related to further development of artificial intelligence technology.
According to Goldman Sachs' framework, companies in this stage include semiconductors, cloud service providers, data center REITs, hardware and equipment companies, security software developers, and utility companies. Goldman Sachs emphasized that although many second stage companies have seen expansion in valuation, there are significant differences in profit correction.
Especially for utility companies (actually referring to power stocks), Goldman Sachs believes that the increase in electricity demand brought about by the development of artificial intelligence, as well as potential rate increases, will be beneficial for this industry. From the performance of stock prices over the past year, public utility stocks in the United States are generally in a slightly declining state.
At this stage, Goldman Sachs listed 93 companies that meet the "AI infrastructure" standards, including ARM, TSMC, Cisco, and almost all power companies. In addition to these well-known large companies, Xinsi Technology, Xinyuan Systems, Kelei, and Weidi Technology have also been included in the list.
Phase 3: AI Empowers/AI Enhancers
The expected components in this third stage are heavier. Goldman Sachs emphasizes that these industries and companies will benefit from the development of artificial intelligence, but unlike server manufacturers and power companies, they will increase revenue through commercial AI technology.
Goldman Sachs explained that in this adoption cycle of artificial intelligence, software and IT services are in a better position, and many management teams have described how their own products can better help others use AI in the future.
At this stage, Goldman Sachs listed 31 US listed companies, including software companies such as ServiceNow and Datadog, as well as IT service companies such as Snowflake and MongoDB.
Goldman Sachs specifically pointed out that stocks included in the third stage basket have achieved a return rate of nearly 8% so far this year. Although artificial intelligence is not the only factor driving the rise of these stocks, it also shows that some investors have started trading stocks in the third stage.
Stage 4: Productivity Gains
The fourth stage of AI trading will belong to listed companies that can achieve significant productivity improvements through the use of artificial intelligence.
Goldman Sachs pointed out that the software services, business, and professional services industries have the greatest potential benefits in widely adopting AI to improve labor productivity. These three industries have high labor costs, and a high proportion of wage expenditures are affected by artificial intelligence automation. Meanwhile, in the just concluded financial reporting season, 30% of all management statements mentioning "AI improving productivity" came from these three industries.
At this stage, Goldman Sachs circled 50 companies, including retail giants Wal Mart and Costco, medical care companies Imena and Tenet, as well as the New York Times, which is suing OpenAI.