The official manufacturing purchasing managers' index rose to 50.2 in September, rising for the fourth straight month and moving into expansion territory for the first time since April, according to data released jointly by the National Bureau of Statistics and the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing on Saturday.
However, the survey results show that the proportion of manufacturing enterprises reflecting the intensifying competition in the industry, high raw material costs and financial constraints has increased from the previous month, and the recovery of the manufacturing industry is still facing some difficulties.
The PMI came in at 49.7 in August, above market expectations, but remained in contraction territory for the fifth month in a row. It was 49.2 in April this year, falling below the threshold for the first time in three months.
In January, the PMI rebounded to 50.1, returning to expansion after three months. It rose to 52.6 in February, the highest since April 2012, indicating a rapid recovery in the manufacturing sector after the implementation of COVID-19 control measures in December last year.
Due to the repeated impact of the new coronavirus epidemic, the official manufacturing PMI fluctuated between expansion and contraction in 2022, with a high of 50.2 in June and a low of 47.4 in April (the value hit the lowest since February 2020).
In February 2020, the official manufacturing PMI hit a record low of 35.7, due to the sudden outbreak of COVID-19 in late January.
The September PMI came in above market expectations.
China's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index likely rose to 50.2 in August, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.
A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
The National Bureau of Statistics interpreted the data that in September, among the 21 industries surveyed, 11 industries PMI was above the critical point, an increase of 2 over the previous month, and the economic horizon has expanded.
The production index and the new orders index were 52.7 and 50.5, respectively, up 0.8 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of industry, the production index and new order index of oil, coal and other fuel processing, automobile, electrical machinery and equipment industries are higher than 53.0.
In order to meet production needs, enterprises increased procurement efforts, and the purchase volume index was 50.7, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and expanded for two consecutive months.
Coupled with the recent continued rise in the prices of some bulk commodities, the overall level of manufacturing market prices continued to rise: the purchase price index of main raw materials and the ex-factory price index were 59.4 and 53.5, respectively, up 2.9 and 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, both of which were the highs of the year. Among them, oil, coal and other fuel processing, chemical raw materials and chemical products, non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing and other upstream industries of the main raw materials purchase and ex-factory price index are at 65.0 and above.
By enterprise type, the PMI of large enterprises was 51.6, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, which was a six-month high. The PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 49.6, unchanged from the previous month. The small business PMI was 48.0, rising for the third consecutive month.
PMI in all key industries rebounded. The PMIs of the equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing and consumer goods industries were 50.6, 50.1 and 51.3, respectively, up 0.6, 0.7 and 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The PMI for energy-intensive industries was 49.7, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month.
The expected index of production and business activities this month was 55.5, basically unchanged from last month, continuing to be in a higher boom range, and enterprises are generally optimistic about market expectations.
The statistics bureau also said the composite PMI output index was 52.0 in September, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, were 52.7 and 51.7, respectively.
Since January 2018, China began to release the monthly comprehensive PMI output index, which is used to monitor the overall economic development of the current national or regional comprehensive output index and cyclical changes, and make up for the deficiency of manufacturing PMI and non-manufacturing PMI that can only reflect the development of the industry.