With the Chinese Spring Festival season's "Hot and Spicy" once again attracting people's attention to the weight loss track, Goldman Sachs has recently emphasized the prospects of weight loss drugs and their broader impact on the macroeconomy in the US stock market.
On Thursday Eastern Time, Goldman Sachs released a report stating that in the coming years, with the widespread adoption of new weight loss drugs in the United States, it will lead to a reduction in obesity related complications, thereby improving work efficiency for Americans and potentially driving GDP growth of over 1%.
Does the United States rely on weight loss to prosper the country?
The United States has the largest number of obese people in the world. According to the analysis of the American Health Trust (TFAH), a public health research and advocacy organization, the proportion of adults in the United States suffering from obesity will reach 41.9% in 2024.
In this context, the impact of weight loss pills on the US economy will be particularly noteworthy. Goldman Sachs believes in its report that assuming the obesity rate in the United States exceeds 40%, their impact on the country's total economic output exceeds 1%.
Goldman Sachs analysts predict that by 2030, the global weight loss drug market will reach $100 billion per year, and Novo Nordisk and Lilly will be industry leaders. Their developed anti obesity drugs, Wegovy and Zepbund, are both the most popular weight loss drugs in the market.
Currently, with several pharmaceutical giants such as Pfizer, AstraZeneca, and Amgen developing GLP-1 weight loss drugs, they may enter the market in the future based on clinical trials. GLP-1 can effectively reduce weight loss by 15% -20%, while also being beneficial for health, including reducing the incidence of major heart events such as stroke.
Goldman Sachs stated that by 2028, the number of consumers using GLP-1 may grow between 10 million and 70 million. Goldman Sachs economists stated in their report:
"If the growth rate of GLP-1 consumers reaches this level and leads to a decrease in obesity rates, we believe this will have significant spillover effects on the broader economy... Academic research has found that obese people are less likely to participate in work and even if they do, their efficiency is low."
Goldman Sachs believes that when the number of weight loss drug users reaches 30 million, the contribution to US GDP is about 0.4%; When the number of weight loss drug users grows to 60 million, the contribution to US GDP may increase to 1%.
Goldman Sachs predicts that the current wave of healthcare innovation, such as artificial intelligence driven drug discovery, combined with the effects of GLP-1, may increase the US GDP level by 1.3% in the coming years; At the current exchange rate, it is equivalent to contributing $360 billion in GDP annually.
Goldman Sachs added that the impact of weight loss pills on the US economy may be greater than in other countries, as people in other developed markets typically have better health conditions compared to the US, a "fat rich country.".